Applications from CBOE Files

On July 8, CBOE submitted two Form 19b-4 applications—one for the VanEck Solana Trust and another for the 21Shares Core Solane ETF. The CBOE compared the expected Solana funds to spot Bitcoin and spot Ether ETFs, authorized by the SEC in January and May respectively. Solana’s decentralization, throughput, and speed were said to be immune to manipulation capable of harming investors.

“Much like Bitcoin and ETH, the Exchange thinks that SOL is immune to price manipulation and that ‘other mechanisms to prevent fraudulent and manipulative activities and practices’ exist to justify dispensing with the obligatory surveillance sharing agreement” said both documents.

Once the SEC admits the files, ETF analyst Nate Geraci said the “decision clock will start ticking.” The SEC’s own guidelines state that the agency will have 240 days to determine whether or not to authorize the rule modification required for CBOE to list the products from VanEck and 21Shares.

Political Context and Market Forecasts

Senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas cautions that whether or not Trump is elected as U.S. President in November would greatly affect the probability of Solana ETF clearance from the SEC. “Looks like Solana ETFs have mid-March 2025 as their last date. But between now and then the most [relevant] date is in November, Balchunas said in a July 9 post on X. Balchunas noted that while anything is conceivable if Trump wins, the Solana ETFs would probably be “dead on arrival,” should Biden prevail.

In a June 27 research paper, crypto market maker GSR Markets projected the approval and later release of Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States could possibly push up the price of SOL by a factor of nine.

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Potential Impact of Spot Solana ETFs

GSR Markets included Solana as one of “crypto’s big three” in a June 27 study and investigated the likelihood of Solana becoming the second spot cryptocurrency ETF to get U.S. regulatory clearance. Surprising many in the market, VanEck filed to offer a spot Solana ETF on the same day.

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Based on their “8.9x” estimate, GSR, which has a long position on SOL, believes that, in relation to their market capitalization, spot Solana ETFs would collect 14% of the flows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed their debut in January. Under GSR’s “blue sky scenario,” Solana’s present price of $149 might jump to over $1,320, hence raising its market valuation to $614 billion at the current supply.

Based on GSR’s “bear” and “baseline” models, spot Solana ETFs might get 2% and 5% of Bitcoin’s flows respectively, which would produce 1.4x and 3.4x price rises for Solana respectively. Although staking was not permitted in the authorized spot Ether ETFs, the company stated that these estimations might be significantly higher if the ETFs incorporate revenue from staking incentives.

Challenges and Regulatory Hurdles

Though GSR has a positive view, Bloomberg ETF expert Eric Balchunas and others feel that a change in the U.S. President and the Chair of the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) would be required for a spot Solana ETF to be really taken under consideration. Complicating the approval process compared to currently authorized spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, the SEC and Gary Gensler, its Chair, branded the SOL token as a security in litigation against Binance and Coinbase.

Following cryptocurrency asset management 3iQ’s application for a spot Solana ETF in Canada, VanEck marks a North American first. Franklin Templeton, the $1.5 trillion asset manager, has also praised the Solana ecosystem; the company has not stated intentions to apply for a Solana ETF.

Current Solana ETF Situation

With around $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products available globally right now, the Solana ecosystem shows great demand and room for expansion.

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