The revision reflects a broader reassessment of risk across the digital asset sector as volatility reshapes institutional expectations.

Short-Term Pressure May Persist

Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, described recent price action across crypto markets as particularly challenging in a note to investors. According to Kendrick, downside risks have increased not only for XRP but for the asset class as a whole.

He indicated that further near-term weakness cannot be ruled out, prompting the bank to adopt a more conservative outlook across major cryptocurrencies. The recalibration signals a shift toward caution as liquidity conditions and investor sentiment evolve.

Sharp Pullback in XRP ETFs

XRP, which holds a market capitalization of approximately $90 billion, entered 2026 with strong momentum. In the first week of the year alone, the asset gained around 25%, supported by inflows into XRP-focused exchange-traded funds and favorable regulatory developments.

On January 5, total assets locked in XRP ETFs reached a record $1.6 billion. However, by February 13, that figure had fallen to just over $1 billion, representing an approximate 40% decline. The contraction in ETF exposure appears to have played a role in the bank’s more cautious price outlook.

Targets Lowered Across Major Cryptocurrencies

The downward revisions extend beyond XRP. Standard Chartered also cut its year-end Bitcoin forecast from $150,000 to $100,000. Ethereum’s target was reduced from $7,000 to $4,000, while Solana’s projection was lowered from $250 to $135.

Kendrick noted that XRP could track performance patterns similar to Ethereum. Both assets, he suggested, may benefit over time from growth in the stablecoin ecosystem and the tokenization of real-world assets.

Overall, the updated projections underscore a more measured institutional stance toward digital assets amid heightened volatility and shifting macro conditions.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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Major Revision in Bitcoin Forecasts

The Standard Chartered analysis team, led by Geoffrey Kendrick, announced significant changes to their projections in a newly published report. The report states that demand growth has progressed more slowly than expected and the market has failed to maintain its previous pace. As a result, the $200,000 year-end target has been reduced to $100,000, while the long-term $500,000 target has been postponed by two years.

Kendrick commented:

“The main reason for lowering our Bitcoin target is that demand is not as strong as it used to be. The long-term target remains $500,000, but the expected date has been moved from 2028 to 2030. Demand growth is slower than anticipated.”

“ETF Inflows Are the Only Strong Support Left”

The report highlights that Bitcoin’s recent resilience is largely dependent on spot ETF inflows. According to the analysts, corporate treasury purchases have decreased significantly, leaving ETF flows as nearly the only remaining driver supporting Bitcoin’s price strength. Based on the report’s data:

• Over the past three months, spot ETF inflows totaled only 50,000 BTC.
• Toward the end of 2024, however, three-month inflows were around 450,000 BTC.

This stark contrast shows that weakening ETF demand is narrowing the structural support behind Bitcoin. The analysts summarized the situation:

“Bitcoin’s price is essentially walking on a single leg—ETFs. But ETF inflows have also weakened noticeably.”

“No New Catalyst for a Rally”

The report states that there is currently no clear catalyst in the market to trigger a strong upward trend for Bitcoin in the near term. Although tomorrow’s expected Fed decision could include a rate cut, analysts believe the key factor will be Powell’s messaging regarding 2026.

The report noted:

“Political pressure on the Fed is affecting risk assets. While the market is optimistic about tomorrow’s rate cut, Powell’s signals for 2026 will be the real determinant. Hassett’s appointment to the Fed could lead to a more expansionary policy, but at the moment there is no new catalyst to support a Bitcoin rally.”

Assessment

Standard Chartered’s decision to halve its Bitcoin target and postpone its long-term forecasts by two years is seen as a major indication of slowing demand in the market. Although spot ETF inflows remain a key supportive factor for Bitcoin, the weakening of these flows has prompted a cautious revision of expectations. When combined with uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and declining institutional demand, the analysts’ cautious approach comes as no surprise. Under these conditions, Bitcoin will likely need a much stronger catalyst to regain upward momentum.

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JPMorgan Raises Its Target to $170,000

One of the most notable updates came from JPMorgan. In its latest outlook, the bank projected that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. According to JPMorgan, recent market pullbacks should not be interpreted as structural weakness. Instead, they represent a healthy correction phase within a broader upward trend.

The bank highlights three primary forces supporting Bitcoin’s medium-term price trajectory: rising mining costs, tightening supply dynamics, and strengthening institutional demand. These structural factors, JPMorgan argues, continue to provide a solid foundation for higher valuations over time.

$180,000 Forecasts from VanEck, Standard Chartered and Fundstrat

JPMorgan is not alone in its bullish outlook. VanEck, Standard Chartered, and Fundstrat have all pointed to $180,000 as a realistic target for Bitcoin during the 2025–2026 cycle. VanEck emphasizes that growing depth in the spot ETF market is creating a stable institutional base for Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered, on the other hand, focuses on potential easing in global macroeconomic conditions, which could accelerate Bitcoin inflows into corporate balance sheets. Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the combination of ETF demand and improving macro trends could ignite the next major bullish phase.

Strategy Maintains Long-Term Conviction

Among corporate Bitcoin holders, Strategy continues to stand out as one of the most committed players. CEO Michael Saylor remains firm on his long-term vision, arguing that Bitcoin is steadily evolving into a digital alternative to gold for corporate treasury management. The company’s ongoing accumulation strategy is widely interpreted as a signal that institutional adoption is still in its early stages.

Shared Themes Across Institutional Forecasts

Several common drivers appear consistently across institutional projections: sustained ETF inflows, rising mining costs tightening supply, increasing network difficulty and hash rate, and the possibility of looser global financial conditions in the 2025–2026 period. Together, these factors explain why price expectations are clustering in the $150,000–$180,000 range.

Overall, institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin is becoming clearer and more strategically long-term. The outlook for 2026 increasingly points toward the possibility of a new macro-driven bullish cycle led by sustained corporate and institutional participation.

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A Deeper Look at Bitcoin’s Latest Pullback

Bitcoin’s brief drop below the $90,000 mark—the first time in seven months—sparked debate about whether the asset was entering a deeper downtrend. While some market watchers argue that BTC could still slip toward $80,000, others believe the worst of the selling pressure has already passed. Standard Chartered’s assessment falls into the latter category.

Kendrick points out that this downturn marks the third significant 30% correction since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Historically, similar retracements have been followed by pronounced recoveries, suggesting that the current decline fits a familiar pattern rather than signaling a broader reversal.

Temporary Pressure or Structural Weakness?

Kendrick emphasizes that the recent selling activity does not appear to stem from long-term investors exiting the market. Instead, he attributes the volatility to overlapping waves of short-term profit-taking and forced liquidations. The positioning of long-term holders, he notes, remains largely stable—a sign that underlying market confidence is intact.

He also highlights several key indicators suggesting that selling momentum is waning. These metrics support his base-case expectation that Bitcoin will regain strength heading into the final stretch of the year.

Standard Chartered’s Outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum

Beyond his short-term optimism, Kendrick maintains an ambitious long-term perspective. He reiterates his year-end price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin, supported by expectations of renewed inflows and sustained institutional interest. For Ethereum, he projects a year-end target of $7,500.

Looking even further ahead, Kendrick forecasts that by 2028:

• Bitcoin could reach $500,000,

• Ethereum could climb to $25,000.

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Market Shakeout May Signal a New Accumulation Phase

In mid-October, the cryptocurrency market witnessed an unprecedented $19 billion liquidation event, pushing Bitcoin price down to a four-month low near $104,000. However, Kendrick interprets this sharp correction as part of a natural market reset rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

“The official forecast remains $200,000 by year-end,” Kendrick stated, adding that the current environment offers the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major uptrend. He noted that while the recovery process may take several weeks, market stabilization could soon spark renewed bullish momentum.

Rate Cuts and Trade Uncertainty: Bitcoin Maintains Strength

Even amid renewed tariff concerns from U.S. President Donald Trump and global market volatility, Kendrick maintains a positive outlook. He argues that Bitcoin could still hold “well above $150,000” in a conservative scenario, provided the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates and inject liquidity into the market.

ETF Inflows and Gold Rally to Drive the Next Bitcoin Surge

Kendrick also pointed to ongoing Bitcoin ETF inflows as a key driver for the next leg of the rally. “This pullback is setting the stage for another strong move upward,” he explained. “ETF demand remains resilient and shows no signs of slowing.”

The strategist further highlighted that gold’s record-breaking highs reinforce Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative, drawing parallel momentum between the two assets. As gold attracts risk-averse capital, Bitcoin may benefit from a similar investor shift toward decentralized stores of value.

Long-Term Vision: $500,000 by 2028

Earlier this year, Kendrick projected that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028, assuming continued institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions. He believes Bitcoin’s resilience amid global uncertainty offers “a historic opportunity” for long-term investors.

While the near-term recovery may take time, Standard Chartered’s latest analysis suggests that the recent sell-off could mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s next major bull cycle, setting the stage for a potential surge toward $200,000 in the coming year.

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Social Media Interest Makes a Difference

According to Santiment’s data, investor enthusiasm and “greed” levels for Bitcoin spiked exactly as BTC reached its new all-time high. In contrast, Ethereum received far less social media hype. Santiment noted that this lack of excessive interest could provide a healthier foundation for ETH’s price growth.

The ETH/BTC ratio has surged 32.9% over the last 30 days, showcasing Ethereum’s relative strength.

Price Action: Pullbacks After Record Highs

Last week, Bitcoin reached $124,128, setting a new all-time high (ATH). However, it quickly retraced by 5.1%, falling back to $117,939.

Ethereum, on the other hand, came close to retesting its 2021 peak of $4,878 but fell just 1.94% short before pulling back to $4,448.

Expert Predictions for Ethereum

With institutional adoption accelerating and stablecoin usage on the rise, analysts have been revising their targets for Ethereum.

• Crypto trader Yashasedu suggested that if Bitcoin climbs to $150,000, ETH could reach as high as $8,656 based on past bull market patterns.

• Standard Chartered has also raised its 2025 Ethereum price forecast from $4,000 to $7,500.

According to Santiment, while Bitcoin faces short-term selling pressure due to overly bullish sentiment, Ethereum’s more moderate hype could be a sign of a healthier market structure. This divergence may allow ETH to outperform BTC in the coming months.

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According to the bank’s analysis, as corporate treasuries continue to purchase ETH in the coming period, this interest will become much more visible. In fact, Standard Chartered predicts that these institutional purchases could reach up to 10% of Ethereum’s total circulating supply.

Standard Chartered: A 10x Increase Could Occur

Another key point highlighted by the bank is that current institutional Ethereum investments only reflect a small portion of the full potential. According to Standard Chartered, the amount of ETH held in corporate treasuries could increase 10-fold in the coming period. This situation could completely shift the market’s supply-demand balance.

Such strong accumulation of Ethereum by institutional companies could have long-term effects not only on the price but also on the overall network usage and security. After all, the Ethereum network is positioned as the backbone of smart contracts and decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

ETH’s Strategic Role is Expanding

This prediction by Standard Chartered suggests that Ethereum could further solidify its leadership role in the altcoin markets. As the second-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin, ETH is no longer just an investment tool; it is also becoming a strategic asset for technology companies.

The growing institutional interest could also reduce Ethereum’s volatility over time and help it become a more stable store of value.

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A Regulatory Milestone for Ondo in the U.S.

Upon completion, the acquisition will grant Ondo access to three key U.S. financial licenses:

• Broker-dealer

• Alternative Trading System (ATS)

• Transfer Agent

These licenses, regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will enable Ondo to legally offer and manage tokenized securities in one of the world’s most tightly controlled financial markets. As interest in digital assets rises, obtaining such regulatory clearance has become essential for platforms entering the American market.

Tokenization: A Multi-Trillion Dollar Opportunity

The concept of tokenization involves bringing traditional financial instruments—such as stocks, bonds, and funds—onto blockchain networks. This evolution offers several major advantages:

• Real-time, 24/7 settlements

• Reduced transaction costs and delays

• Broader, global investor access

• Enhanced programmability and automation

Research from institutions like Ripple, McKinsey, BCG, and Standard Chartered suggests tokenized assets could reach the multi-trillion dollar mark over the next decade, redefining how capital markets operate worldwide.

The Competitive Landscape Is Heating Up

Ondo isn’t alone in its race to build regulated tokenization platforms. Other companies have made similar strategic moves in 2025:

• Archax, based in the U.K., acquired FINRA-regulated Globacap Private Markets to expand into the U.S.

• Prometheum has also announced plans to launch a transfer agent service and secured a broker-dealer license.

These developments point to a growing focus on compliance-ready blockchain financial ecosystems.

Oasis Pro: A Pioneer in Digital Securities

Founded in 2019, Oasis Pro became one of the first U.S. platforms authorized to settle digital securities using both fiat currencies and stablecoins like USDC and DAI. The firm has also played an active role in shaping regulatory guidance through participation in FINRA’s Crypto Working Group.

Pat LaVecchia, CEO of Oasis Pro, will be joining Ondo Finance once the acquisition closes. He describes the merger as laying “a robust foundation for a regulated tokenized securities ecosystem.”

Global Markets Expansion on the Horizon

Ondo Finance currently manages over $1.4 billion in tokenized assets. Following the acquisition, the company plans to launch tokenized equity offerings via its Global Markets platform, targeting non-U.S. investors.

Similar services have been recently introduced by major platforms like Robinhood, Kraken, Gemini, and Bybit, signaling increasing demand for blockchain-native investment products across global retail and institutional markets.

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The Halving Cycle May No Longer Define the Trend

Kendrick suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is no longer closely tied to traditional halving cycles. Historically, BTC has seen notable corrections roughly 18 months after each halving. However, with the most recent halving in April 2024, this pattern appears to be shifting.

The key reason? Unlike previous cycles, the current market is witnessing strong ETF inflows and increased corporate treasury accumulation. These new demand drivers are believed to be powerful enough to support Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory.

Standard Chartered Eyes $500K by 2028

Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term bullish stance. The bank forecasts Bitcoin could reach as high as $500,000 per coin by 2028, supported by increasing institutional adoption and tightening supply-demand dynamics.

Correction Risks Remain on the Table

While the outlook remains positive, Kendrick also cautions about potential price corrections toward the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4. The psychological impact of past halving cycles may still influence short-term volatility in the crypto markets.

In summary, Standard Chartered’s projection underlines a significant shift in the Bitcoin investment landscape, with institutional demand playing a growing role in price formation and long-term market structure.

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Banking Infrastructure for Institutional Crypto Clients

As part of the partnership announced on May 14, FalconX will offer Standard Chartered’s banking infrastructure and access to a wide range of FX pairs to its institutional clients. This partnership has the potential to provide more robust banking and FX solutions to major players operating in the crypto market.

Initially starting with core banking services, this integration is planned to expand in the future to include a broader product range and mutual growth opportunities.

A Collaboration Beyond Banking

The collaboration between the two companies will not be limited to banking. The partnership will also include the development of new products and services for the crypto ecosystem. In this way, the digital asset needs of both FalconX’s and Standard Chartered’s institutional clients can be met more effectively.

The target customer base includes asset managers, hedge funds, token issuers, and payment platforms.

Matt Long, FalconX’s Managing Director for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, referred to Standard Chartered as “one of the most visionary global banks when it comes to embracing digital assets.” Long said, “At FalconX, we provide trading and financing services to some of the world’s largest institutions in digital asset markets. This partnership enhances our ability to offer strong banking and FX solutions to our clients.”

Standard Chartered Maintains Its Commitment to Crypto

Luke Boland, Head of Fintech for South Asia at Standard Chartered, stated that this collaboration further strengthens the bank’s contribution to the digital asset ecosystem:

“As institutional interest in digital assets grows, we are proud to provide the banking infrastructure that enables firms like FalconX to deliver top-tier trading and financing solutions.”

This partnership is a new indication of the bank’s increasing commitment to the crypto sector.

In April, the bank launched a pilot project with a major crypto exchange aimed at offering crypto and tokenized fund collateral services to institutional investors.

Standard Chartered’s relationship with crypto actually dates back to 2016. At that time, the bank made its first move into the sector by investing in Ripple, the company behind XRP.

As global banks’ interest in digital assets continues to rise, partnerships like the one with FalconX strengthen expectations that institutional crypto adoption will accelerate in the second half of 2025.

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