Tariff Levels

According to the agreement, the US will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods at 30%; China will keep tariffs on US products at 10%. This arrangement will be valid until August 12th. However, after this date, whether the tariffs will return to previous levels will depend on US President Donald Trump’s approval. Bessent stated that if Trump does not approve, tariffs will revert to their April 2nd levels or another level decided by Trump.

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Content of the Talks

During the talks in Stockholm, not only tariffs but also topics such as China’s investment restrictions on the US, fentanyl supply, and energy trade were discussed. Both sides expressed their willingness to maintain open communication and build a more balanced trade relationship.

Global Economic Impacts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the US’s wide-ranging tariffs have negatively impacted global economic growth and fueled inflation. However, a relaxation in some trade measures has raised the global GDP forecast for 2025 to 3%.

Although this agreement between the US and China has prevented the trade war from escalating further, the situation of tariffs after August 12th remains uncertain. Whether the tariffs will continue will be crucial not only for the two countries but also for the future of the global economy.

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In May, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 30%; in return, China agreed to cut tariffs on the U.S. from 125% to 10% as part of a temporary 90-day compromise. Although this comprehensive policy shift provided a temporary breather, the infrastructure remains unclear and negotiations continue for long-term solutions.

What Is Expected from the Talks?

The Stockholm talks that began on July 28 brought together high-level representatives from both the U.S. and China. Key figures such as Scott Bessent from the U.S. Treasury and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng participated in these discussions, which focused on shaping the draft details of trade agreements. During the negotiations, it is especially expected that the U.S. side will bring up special additional tariffs related to synthetic drugs (fentanyl) again.

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Positive Development:

• Major companies (such as Apple, Amazon) reacted positively in the markets thanks to this temporary relaxation. Significant increases were observed in Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

• For China, where alternatives to boost domestic demand are limited, such compromises have become an important tool for economic revival.

For Small Businesses:

• While this extension provides relief for some in the business world, small businesses are facing serious challenges such as planning uncertainty, inventory management, and cost forecasting. Critics argue that “working within temporary windows can impose a heavy burden on small businesses.”

If no agreement is reached, tariffs could quickly return to levels above 145%. This could lead to major disruptions in supply chains and global price increases. In the long term, a permanent solution is needed, and this extension essentially aims to strengthen the groundwork for constructive negotiation.

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