Trump told NBC News that Washington had “completely demolished” energy infrastructure on Kharg Island and added:
“We may hit it a few more times just for fun.”
He exceeded his previous limited-target statements. Furthermore, his administration rejected Middle Eastern allies’ attempts at mediation, three sources told Reuters.

Course of the War and Iran’s Response

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said they would retaliate against any attacks on energy facilities. Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards carried out missile and drone strikes on Israel and three U.S. bases, describing them as the first round of retaliation for worker deaths on Kharg Island. The Israeli military intercepted most of the attacks.

Saudi Arabia destroyed 10 drones over Riyadh and the eastern region. The semi-official Fars News Agency said Iran had no connection. One of the UAE’s major energy hubs was disrupted by a drone strike. The U.S. warned its citizens in Iraq to leave immediately. In other words, the war does not remain limited to Iran, the U.S., and Israel; regional energy infrastructure is also directly targeted.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Drives Oil Prices

About 20% of global oil shipments pass through this narrow corridor. Trump’s military signals threaten supply security, creating a “fear premium” in the market. Even the possibility of closure applies direct inflationary pressure on the global economy.

Deaths and Material Losses

Operations launched by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28 have killed over 2,000 people, mostly in Iran. Fars reported that at least 15 died when an airstrike hit a refrigerator and heater factory in Isfahan. Significant material and infrastructure losses have also occurred.

Strait of Hormuz and Allied Calls

Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to send warships to the Strait. So far, no country has responded officially. Japan can deploy its forces only if the government declares national survival at risk. France and the UK are actively reviewing options but have not taken any concrete steps yet.

On Saturday, Trump also wrote on social media:
“Countries receiving oil through the Strait of Hormuz must safeguard the passage, and we will help a lot! The U.S. will coordinate to ensure everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.”

Iran’s new leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father was slain, emphasized the Strait should remain closed. Meanwhile, energy markets remain uncertain, supply shocks and oil logistics problems continue, and prices keep rising.

Drone and Missile Attacks in the Region

Iran is using Shahed drones in the region, reportedly supplied by Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed to CNN that some drones are linked to regional attacks, though manufacturers remain unclear. Actually, these developments highlight military risks and deepen geopolitical uncertainty.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE activated defense systems, and some operations were suspended. Oil and energy logistics remain blocked, supply shocks persist. In short, the global energy crisis does not appear to be ending soon.

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In short, the market is no longer driven by traditional data flows but is directly pricing in geopolitical risk.

Why Did Oil Rise?

Long-dominant drivers like inventory data, economic indicators, or OPEC statements have been temporarily overshadowed. According to Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, the price action is currently determined by something simpler: military developments in the Middle East.

Sachdeva identifies four key factors investors are closely monitoring in the near term:

• Physical oil exports from Gulf countries

• Verified tanker incidents

• US naval activity in the region

• Iran’s diplomatic and military statements

Any of these could trigger rapid price movements. Tanker security, in particular, is increasingly critical. The recent movements in energy markets are not limited to oil. European gas prices have surged in recent days, while refineries in Asia are seeking alternative supplies. These rapid changes suggest a new price equilibrium may be forming in global markets.

Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Energy Flow

Israeli and US forces struck targets across Iran on Tuesday, prompting retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and tanker traffic. This region accounts for roughly one-third of global oil production.

Crucially, about 20% of global oil and LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now effectively closed to tanker traffic. US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of the US Navy escorting oil tankers through the Strait if necessary, alongside political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf.

Markets remain cautious, as war risk insurance is rapidly being canceled and new mechanisms will take time to implement.

Iraq Production at Risk: 3 Million Barrel Exposure

The impact on oil supply extends beyond Iran. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has cut production by approximately 1.5 million barrels per day due to storage limits and export disruptions.

If exports do not resume soon, Iraq could halt roughly 3 million barrels per day, potentially triggering another surge in global oil prices.

Rising Energy Prices Push Dollar Up, Euro Down

The rapid rise in energy prices is affecting not only oil but also global currency markets. The US dollar traded near a three-month high on Wednesday in Asia, while the euro fell 0.2% to $1.1590, extending a three-day losing streak.

George Saravelos, global head of FX strategy at Deutsche Bank, explains: the impact boils down to energy. Rising energy costs are effectively a dollar-denominated tax for European consumers, potentially putting pressure on the European Central Bank and sparking discussions about possible rate hikes.

Market Snapshot

• Brent Crude: $82.57
• WTI Crude: $75.28
• Euro/Dollar: 1.1590
• US Dollar Index: 99.2

How the Energy Crisis is Affecting Global Markets

Rising energy prices are forcing countries to look for alternative sources:

• India and Indonesia are exploring new energy supplies

• Chinese refineries are accelerating maintenance schedules

• Tanker traffic in the Gulf has slowed dramatically

• European natural gas prices surged nearly 70% in a few days

Such price shocks rarely affect a single market, impacting inflation, bond markets, currency, and equities simultaneously. The current period reflects exactly that chain reaction.

US Oil Inventories Rise Above Expectations

Despite geopolitical tensions, US inventory data provides a different signal. According to the American Petroleum Institute, crude stocks rose by 5.6 million barrels last week, well above the 2.3 million barrel expectation. Official figures from the US Department of Energy are expected later.

Normally, such a large inventory increase would push prices lower. But in the current environment, markets are focusing more on military developments in the Middle East.

Investors Eye Three Key Factors

Short-term oil price direction depends on:

• Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens

• US naval escort plans

• Potential halt in Iraqi production

These combined could trigger another surge in oil prices—or the opposite. Geopolitical risks can rise and fall rapidly, and markets are aware. Prices rise… but caution remains.

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Risk perception across global markets has clearly intensified in recent days. During Asian trading hours, spot gold climbed 0.7 percent to $5,368 per ounce. Prices had already reached their highest level in more than four weeks in the previous session and maintained upward momentum into the new trading day. Meanwhile, U.S. April gold futures rose 1.5 percent to around $5,391.90 per ounce.

How Much Is Gram Gold Today?

The rise in international gold prices has also affected domestic markets in Türkiye. Combined with exchange-rate effects, gold prices in the local market moved upward as well.

As of the morning of March 3, 2026, gram gold is trading around 7,590 Turkish lira, up approximately 0.7 percent. As long as geopolitical risk pricing continues in global markets, volatility in gram gold prices may also persist.

Market analysts note that safe-haven demand could strengthen further if the conflict expands. During periods of uncertainty, gold often becomes one of the first assets investors turn to.

Why Are Gold Prices Rising?

Several key factors are driving the latest surge in gold prices. First, escalating military tensions in the Middle East have significantly increased risk perception in global markets.

Second, investor demand for safe-haven assets has risen sharply. In times of uncertainty, portfolios often shift part of their allocation toward gold.

Another major factor comes from the energy market. Rising oil prices are bringing global inflation concerns back into focus. When inflation expectations increase, gold typically gains demand as a hedge.

Why Are Oil Prices Increasing?

The main driver behind the rise in oil prices is developments around the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian media reports, a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the strait had been closed and warned that ships attempting to pass through the area could be targeted.

This statement triggered serious concerns in energy markets. Roughly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through this strategic waterway.

While a full disruption has not yet occurred, markets often price potential risks rather than confirmed events. The upward pressure on oil prices reflects exactly this scenario.

What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

This is currently the most critical scenario discussed in energy markets. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly disrupt global oil supply.

According to experts, such a scenario could lead to rapid and sharp increases in oil prices, as this route is one of the most important transit points for global energy shipments.

For this reason, energy markets are closely watching not only the military developments but also potential disruptions in maritime trade.

Why Isn’t Gold Falling While the Dollar Is Strong?

Under normal market conditions, a stronger U.S. dollar tends to put pressure on gold prices. When the dollar gains value, gold becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

However, this relationship often shifts during geopolitical crises.

The U.S. dollar index has remained near a five-week high, while gold prices have continued to climb at the same time. This suggests a classic safe-haven reaction in financial markets. Investors are moving toward both the dollar and gold simultaneously.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, notes that gold’s rise despite the strong dollar highlights the level of geopolitical risk currently priced into markets. According to him, higher oil prices and potential disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push global inflation concerns back to the forefront.

Trump Signals New Wave of Attacks

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that operations against Iran would continue “for as long as necessary.” He also warned that a new and larger wave of attacks could occur soon, although he did not provide specific operational details.

The conflict is already affecting more than just military dynamics. Civilian casualties have been reported in Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. Global air travel has faced disruptions, and maritime trade in the region has slowed significantly. Shipping activity near the Strait of Hormuz has declined notably.

Other Precious Metals Also Move Higher

Rising geopolitical tensions have not only affected gold but also other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 1.4 percent to $90.67 per ounce, reaching its highest level in four weeks.

Platinum climbed 0.6 percent to $2,316.50, while palladium gained 1.6 percent to $1,795.08.

Global markets will likely focus on three major developments in the coming days: whether the conflict in the Middle East expands, the status of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of energy prices on global inflation.

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Rising Insurance Costs and Oil Price Scenarios

Insurance premiums for oil tankers have surged by more than 50%. The cost of insuring a $100 million vessel per voyage has climbed from roughly $250,000 to $375,000. Even without a formal blockade, this spike in shipping risk has been sufficient to raise concerns about potential supply disruptions.

According to various analysts, if tensions persist and logistics are materially disrupted, crude oil prices could climb into the $120–$130 per barrel range. Such a move would not only affect energy markets but could reverberate across the broader global financial system.

Inflation Pressures and Interest Rate Expectations

A sharp rise in oil prices would likely feed directly into transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods costs, reigniting inflationary pressures. This comes at a time when markets have been positioning for potential monetary easing. If inflation expectations rebound, central banks may be forced to reconsider or delay anticipated rate cuts.

In particular, higher inflation expectations could push US Treasury yields upward. Rising bond yields typically signal tighter financial conditions, reducing overall market liquidity. As government bonds become more attractive, capital often rotates away from higher-risk assets.

Liquidity Tightening and Crypto Vulnerability

Bitcoin has historically behaved like a high-beta liquidity asset during tightening cycles. When real yields rise, digital assets often underperform as leverage unwinds and funding costs increase. In this context, crypto markets do not necessarily require a full-scale geopolitical crisis to decline—liquidity tightening alone can be sufficient.

Elevated oil prices triggering higher yields could therefore create a negative feedback loop for digital assets, particularly if leveraged positions begin to unwind rapidly.

Additional Risks and Market Sensitivity

Some market observers have also pointed out a secondary risk: potential disruptions to energy infrastructure in Iran, which is often cited as a hub for relatively low-cost Bitcoin mining. While speculative, such concerns add to broader uncertainty surrounding network stability and supply dynamics.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has publicly stated that he is not concerned about the Strait of Hormuz situation. However, financial markets tend to respond more directly to movements in bond yields than to political reassurances.

With crypto trading around the clock and derivatives markets heavily leveraged, any sudden macro shock can quickly cascade into forced liquidations. In the coming sessions, developments in oil prices and bond markets may determine whether this episode remains temporary volatility—or evolves into a broader liquidity-driven selloff.

This content is not investment advice.

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Although US stock markets opened with declines, losses were quickly recovered. Oil and gold prices initially rose but then fell back. The global MSCI index only dropped by 0.12%. Safe-haven assets showed mixed performance: the Japanese yen lost 0.64% against the dollar, while gold prices slightly decreased. Experts attribute the market calmness to expectations that the military intervention will not be prolonged. The Trump administration is keeping its military actions against Iran limited and deterrent. The prevailing belief is that the regional conflict will not escalate. 

Geopolitical Risks Are Controlled by Markets 

According to Dan Ives from Wedbush, the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat is positive for the market. At this stage, the possibility of the Iran-Israel conflict turning into a regional war is considered low. Therefore, markets are not panicking. 

Peter Boockvar, investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, states that market stability will be maintained if Iran ends its military nuclear program. Iran is not expected to take actions that would disrupt global oil supply. Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, says Trump does not want gas prices to remain above $4. It is also predicted that Trump will continue to pressure Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. 

Iran’s Countermeasures and the Strait of Hormuz Risk 

Despite Iran’s parliament deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns remain limited. Experts emphasize that the likelihood of Iran implementing this threat is low. Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy says Iran’s countermeasures will be limited. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices would surge above $100, panic would ensue in markets, and stocks could fall more than 10%. However, this scenario is considered unlikely. 

In the past, Iran has made similar threats but did not close the strait. Papic notes that Iran is aware of the heavy retaliation that would come from the US. 

Three Possible Scenarios for Oil Prices According to Analysts 

• Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats outlines three scenarios shaping oil prices: 
• Oil flow continues uninterrupted, Brent crude falls to around $60. 
• Iran’s oil exports decline significantly, eliminating global oversupply, prices hover between $75-80. 
• Expanded conflict threatens Gulf oil exports, prices could rise to $140 as in 2022. 
• Whether price movements are temporary or permanent is critical. Recently, WTI oil prices rose by 10%, Brent crude by 18%. 

Long-Term Positive Outlook for US Stocks 

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, states that geopolitical developments will not change the long-term upward trend of US stock markets. Trump’s limited military intervention increases market confidence. Yardeni suggests the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites could create structural changes in the Middle East. Short-term uncertainty and volatility are possible, but market confidence could strengthen over time. 

The expectation that Iran will respond limitedly and that the conflict can be controlled keeps investors cautiously optimistic. 

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While Beijing initially issued strong messages of support for Iran, its tone has since grown more cautious. Direct involvement in the conflict could harm China’s strategic global interests — but a controlled crisis could also create opportunities for Beijing.

China’s Silent Advantage: Who Gets Burned if Hormuz Closes?

A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect nearly 20% of global oil flows. Ironically, this scenario may pose more of an advantage than a threat for China. Compared to the U.S. and the European Union, Beijing is better positioned to handle an energy squeeze. In fact, it continues importing Iranian oil relabeled through Malaysia, bypassing sanctions.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Energy analysts suggest that China could weather a spike in oil prices with minimal damage, while Washington and Brussels may face heavier economic pressure.

Geopolitical Chess: China Adjusts Its Calculations

Despite signing a 25-year strategic agreement with Iran in 2021 and participating in joint military drills, China refrains from openly opposing Israel.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Israel’s attacks as “unacceptable” during a recent call with his Israeli counterpart, but deliberately avoided stronger language like “condemnation.” This signals Beijing’s desire to avoid taking sides too openly.

What Lies Behind China’s Quiet Diplomacy?

In a recent statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that “stability in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters is in the shared interest of the international community.” Compared to previous assertive messaging, this represents a notable softening.

According to political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, China is “staying diplomatically aligned with Iran without directly condemning Israel.”

Experts suggest Beijing is trying to preserve its strategic ties with Iran while maintaining an image as a peaceful global actor. How long this balancing act can last, however, remains uncertain.

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Gold also reached a new record high as investors sought safe-haven assets, with its price hitting $3,433. The crypto market showed signs of recovery with strong buying momentum after last week’s turbulence. Rekt Capital stated that Bitcoin has started a new uptrend by holding above $104,400. As a result, investors continued to turn toward risk assets ahead of the critical FOMC decision. 

FOMC and BoJ Decisions to Shape Market Direction 

JPMorgan analysts reminded that Iran controls 3.5% of global oil supply. The potential for Brent oil to reach $130 per barrel has raised expectations of a new wave of inflation in the markets. If this level is reached, U.S. inflation could hit 5%, possibly delaying the Fed’s rate cut plans. 

Meanwhile, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made cautious remarks about interest rate cuts. Powell refused to take hasty action, considering that Trump’s tariff policies could drive prices higher. Still, 40% of investors in the futures market expect two rate cuts by the end of the year. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering postponing its rate hike to Q1 2025 due to problems in the bond market. According to Reuters, BoJ plans to maintain tight monetary policy during this period. 

Strait of Hormuz Crisis and $130 Oil Scenario Shake the Markets 

Some analysts at JPMorgan reiterated Iran’s 3.5% share in global oil supply. Combined with geopolitical risks, they forecast oil prices could exceed $130 per barrel. Such an increase could push U.S. consumer inflation close to 5%. The Kobeissi Letter emphasized that this scenario would significantly delay the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts. 

Experts also defined the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the most severe geopolitical scenario. Iran could use its dominance over the strait to disrupt global energy supply. 

Bitcoin continues to stay resilient amid all these developments. Investors are still in search of safe havens amid geopolitical tensions and inflation pressures. BTC’s trading volume rose 14%, surpassing $40.5 billion, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity. 

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Five-Day Inflow Streak Signals Investor Confidence

Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight days of inflows starting June 9, with over $1.3 billion entering the market. According to Farside Investors, Friday alone saw $301 million in net inflows, signaling robust confidence in Bitcoin despite recent shocks.

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While the cryptocurrency briefly dropped 3% following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, it bounced back quickly from $103,000 to hover around $105,000 — reflecting market resilience under pressure.

Falling Dollar Boosts Bitcoin’s Outlook

Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau emphasized the macroeconomic view: “It’s not geopolitics, but the U.S. dollar index (DXY) that truly drives Bitcoin. With DXY falling below 100 — a three-year low — Bitcoin stands to benefit.”

Still, the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could trigger short-term price shocks across risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

New Highs on the Horizon?

Despite global uncertainty, Bitcoin is trading just 6% below its all-time high of $112,000, reached on May 22. This resilience has analysts predicting that a breakout could be imminent.

As macroeconomic instability grows and trust in traditional finance weakens, capped-supply assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

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