Data from Polymarket, where traders risk real capital on price outcomes, reveals a market focused on holding key support levels instead of chasing new highs.

February Pricing: Defending the Floor

Polymarket’s February Bitcoin price contracts point to $70,000 as the critical battleground. With 24 days remaining in the month, contracts tied to the $70,000 level alone have attracted nearly $1.78 million in volume. The probability assigned to this level has jumped to 74%, rising sharply over recent sessions and making it the most actively traded outcome.

Upside expectations have weakened significantly. The $85,000 target has fallen to a 29% probability, while $90,000 and $95,000 are priced at just 12% and 7%, respectively. On the downside, traders appear cautious but not alarmist. The $65,000 contract sits at 39%, and $60,000 holds at 19%, while probabilities of a breakdown below $55,000 remain minimal.

Taken together, the implied trading range for February is roughly $65,000 to $85,000, with $70,000 emerging as the most likely settlement point.

Longer-Term View: Optimism Under Pressure

Polymarket’s annual contract for 2026 presents a more balanced but increasingly cautious outlook. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026 stands at 55%, though this figure has dropped notably from recent highs. Expectations for $110,000 have also declined to 42%.

Interestingly, the most heavily traded outcome is not an upside target but downside protection. The $65,000 contract has surged to an 83% probability, supported by more than $1 million in volume. Higher price targets fade quickly, with probabilities falling sharply above $130,000.

Market Forces Behind the Decline

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $73,199, down 16% year-to-date and approximately 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. The selloff has been driven by a combination of rising geopolitical tensions, unresolved economic data issues following last year’s extended government shutdown, and expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve leadership, which has strengthened the US dollar.

Technically, the damage has been substantial. Since late January, more than $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred, pushing derivatives open interest to a nine-month low. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also seen sustained outflows, reducing total net assets from over $128 billion in mid-January to around $97 billion.

The Takeaway

Polymarket’s pricing reflects a market bracing for consolidation rather than recovery. For February, traders are overwhelmingly focused on whether Bitcoin can hold $70,000. While longer-term expectations for six-figure prices remain alive, conviction is clearly eroding. For now, $70,000 is the level that defines sentiment.

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Regulatory Pressure Remains a Key Overhang

Despite improving price action, regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on broader market sentiment. In South Korea, crypto exchange Coinone dismissed recent claims suggesting it was in talks to sell equity to Coinbase. The company clarified that speculation surrounding a renewed entry of U.S.-based exchanges into the South Korean market does not reflect reality.

This statement dampened expectations of near-term consolidation in the Asian crypto sector and reinforced the idea that regulatory barriers remain a major constraint on international expansion. The situation highlights how compliance challenges continue to shape strategic decisions for both local and global platforms.

A similar dynamic is unfolding in the United Kingdom. According to a survey conducted by the UK Cryptoasset Business Council, nearly 40% of payments to crypto exchanges are being blocked or delayed by major banks. Exchanges operating in the region report a noticeable rise in failed transactions, positioning the UK as one of the most restrictive environments for crypto-related banking access among developed markets.

Total Market Capitalization Approaches Key Resistance

The recent rise in total market value suggests that selling pressure has eased in the short term, allowing prices to stabilize. Analysts note that if current momentum is sustained, the overall crypto market could attempt a move toward the psychologically important $3 trillion resistance level.

A confirmed break above this threshold may open the door for an extension toward $3.05 trillion. However, if buying interest weakens, the market could once again retreat toward the $2.92 trillion support zone, keeping volatility elevated.

Bitcoin’s Focus Shifts Toward $90,000

Bitcoin was trading around $88,421 at the time of writing. Importantly, BTC has managed to stay above the $86,976 level, which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Holding this area has helped prevent a sharper downside move.

Many market participants view this zone as a critical bear-market support base. As long as it remains intact, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate in a narrow range, with a potential test of the $90,000 psychological resistance in the near term.

On the downside, a decisive break below $86,976 could expose Bitcoin to a move toward the next support level at $84,694. Such a decline would likely increase selling pressure across the broader crypto market, reinforcing the importance of these levels in the days ahead.

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Bitcoin Break Below $92,000 Signals Ongoing Uncertainty

Bitcoin slipping back under the $92,000 mark has reinforced the sense of uncertainty dominating the current market structure. The analysis notes that price action remains volatile and lacking clear momentum, while short-term selling pressure has not yet fully subsided.

This environment has tempered investor confidence and indicates that the market has not produced a convincing recovery signal at this stage.

A Critical Zone for Bitcoin: $87,400–$88,700 Range

One of the most important insights from MakroVision’s technical outlook is the significance of the $87,400 to $88,700 range. This narrow band contains notable Fibonacci levels from the latest downward leg and is viewed as a key congestion zone that could shape short-term direction.

Analysts highlight that Bitcoin establishing stability within this area is essential for any sustainable rebound structure. If the price fails to hold this zone and breaks lower, the outlook could turn more bearish, potentially opening the path toward the $82,000–$80,000 region.

Condition for Relief: Holding Above $91,700

On the upside, the first meaningful relief scenario appears only if Bitcoin can secure a consistent move above $91,700. The report emphasizes that without maintaining strength above this level, it will be difficult for buyers to regain control.

However, for a more durable medium-term recovery, this threshold alone is not enough. The analysis points to the need for a breakout above the descending red trendline, which would confirm a solid base formation and signal renewed market strength.

Key Levels Remain in Focus

Overall, Bitcoin is wrestling with decisive support and resistance areas as the market attempts to define its next direction. Short-term pressure still lingers, and both the lower support zone and upper resistance thresholds will continue to shape sentiment in the days ahead.

This article does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.

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RSI Approaches Oversold Territory: A Potential Turning Point?

According to analyst Mister Crypto, Bitcoin’s short-term structure has begun to firm up. Following what he describes as capitulation-like selling across the market, larger investors have reportedly started to open new long positions. This behavior often appears near market bottoms and has historically preceded short-term reversals.

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing the 30 level also reinforces this outlook. In previous cycles, interactions with this zone coincided with periods when Bitcoin was forming significant bottoms. Although this does not necessarily signal the start of a new long-term bullish phase, the analyst argues that it often marks the setup for a short-term upward move.

The $102,000 Level Reenters the Conversation

Another factor contributing to the bullish scenario is Bitcoin’s current distance from the 50-week moving average, which sits near $102,000. Historically, after falling below this indicator, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to retrace toward it. This pattern has led analysts to anticipate a potential rebound back into six-figure territory before broader market dynamics assert themselves.

Macro Outlook Supports Near-Term Optimism

Macro conditions may further strengthen the possibility of a short-term recovery. Expectations surrounding an eventual end to quantitative tightening, paired with speculation about another potential rate cut, are viewed as positive catalysts for risk assets. Looser financial conditions typically support demand for assets like Bitcoin.

Still, caution remains for the long term. The analyst emphasizes that the broader market environment continues to exhibit bearish characteristics, meaning any upcoming rally could be vulnerable to renewed weakness later on.

Sentiment Slowly Improves After Extreme Fear

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently climbed from an 18-day stretch of “Extreme Fear” to a reading of 28, signaling a modest improvement in market sentiment.

Bitwise Europe research head André Dragosch adds another layer to this perspective, arguing that Bitcoin’s current price does not yet reflect improving macro expectations. He likens the present risk-reward setup to the asymmetric opportunity seen during the COVID-era crash, suggesting that the market may be overly pricing in a pessimistic global outlook and could be primed for an upside surprise.

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$110,000 Becomes Bitcoin’s New Floor

In his latest remarks, Check suggested that investors should start raising their price targets, as Bitcoin has successfully built a strong foundation above six figures.

“We can confidently say that $110,000 is now a proven floor. The next question is—where do we go from here?”

According to Check, Bitcoin’s market capitalization currently stands around $2.42 trillion, signaling a solid support zone at current levels.

“We proved $1 trillion in 2024, and we’ve proved $2 trillion in 2025. Now the question is—how many trillions come next?” he added.

$95,000 Is a Floor, Not a Ceiling

James Check emphasized that the $95,000 level should now be viewed as a bottom rather than resistance.

“Over 60% of all dollars ever invested in Bitcoin are above $95,000. That’s more of a floor than a ceiling,” he said.

Based on this data, the analyst believes Bitcoin’s most logical next target is $150,000, which would represent a market cap of roughly $3 trillion.

“This is one of those binary setups where markets force you to hold two perspectives at once,” Check explained.

Bullish Outlooks for 2025 Strengthen

In line with Check’s perspective, Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, forecasted in December 2024 that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025, with potential upside toward $185,000.

Other market strategists have gone even further, projecting possible highs of $250,000, reflecting a growing sense of long-term optimism among institutional and retail investors alike.

“The Bulls Are in Control”

Commenting on current market sentiment, Check noted:

“There’s no excuse for the market to drop back to $95,000. We’ve proven we want higher. The bulls are in control.”

However, he also cautioned that if momentum fades, Bitcoin could enter a temporary consolidation phase. Still, all signs currently suggest that buyers remain firmly in charge of the trend.

Is $150,000 Next?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $121,392, up 0.8% over the past week. A move toward $150,000 would mark an impressive 23.5% price increase from current levels.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, echoed this view, suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent reclaim of the $120,000 psychological level could pave the way for a rapid breakout toward a new all-time high at $150,000.

*Does not contain investment advice.

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The post Bitcoin Analyst Predicts New Bottom: Where Is the Next Support Level? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Strong Rejection from a Key Support Zone

SUI recently bounced strongly from the support zone between $4.39 – $4.12, a region that has historically served as a key technical level. The bounce indicates that buyers are still active around this area. However, it’s worth noting that no clear breakout confirmation has occurred yet, which means the upward momentum remains tentative for now.

Eyes on the Next Support: $3.13 – $2.93

Currently, the price is hovering near a lower support range of $3.13 – $2.93. This zone is also in close proximity to the ascending trendline and will likely be a critical level to monitor. A strong reaction from this area could pave the way for a renewed bullish push.

For altcoin investors, how price behaves around this zone will be crucial in determining the near-term direction. If the support holds and a clear confirmation is seen, we might witness a retest of the previous resistance levels.

As Long as the Trend Holds, Upside Potential Remains

The key for market participants right now is whether the price can stay above the ascending trendline. As long as SUI holds above this line, there’s still upside potential for further gains. A breakdown below the trendline, however, could signal a shift in momentum and invalidate the current bullish setup.

In the meantime, traders should remain cautious and continue to monitor both price action and volume for signs of confirmation.

This article is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. The crypto market is highly volatile and involves significant risk.

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Downtrend Break Fails to Deliver Momentum

Recently, LDO managed to break above its descending trendline — a move often perceived as a bullish signal by market participants. However, contrary to expectations, no significant upside momentum followed. Instead, LDO came under renewed selling pressure, eventually losing the support zone between 0.98 – 0.96.

This breakdown could be interpreted as a reflection of weak buying interest in the market. In periods where major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are moving sideways or showing bearish tendencies, smaller projects like LDO often struggle to attract strong trading volumes.

Eyes on the New Support: 0.88 – 0.87 Zone

With the recent pullback, the price has now approached the 0.88 – 0.87 range, which serves as the next short-term support level. This area holds technical significance as it could be a point where buyers re-enter the market.

However, if this level fails to hold, the decline could extend towards the 0.83 zone. Especially in weak global market conditions, support levels can be easily breached — a risk that traders should not overlook.

Resistance Levels to Watch: 0.96 – 0.98 and Beyond

In a potential recovery scenario, the immediate resistance is situated in the 0.96 – 0.98 range. A successful move above this region could open the door for a climb toward 1.05. However, for this breakout to be sustainable, it would require not just technical confirmation, but also a more favorable overall market sentiment.

Without that support from the broader market, any minor upward move could simply become a magnet for short positions, increasing selling pressure once again.

This content is not financial advice. The cryptocurrency market carries high levels of risk, and it is essential to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Key Resistance Under Watch

The resistance zone between $3,805 – $3,747 has become a focal point for traders. This area has acted as a strong barrier where price rejections occurred several times. If Ethereum manages to break through this level, a move toward the $3,800 – $3,900 range could follow in the short term.

Macro Data May Shape the Ethereum Trend

One of the most important events this week is the interest rate decision set to be announced on tuesday. If a rate cut is introduced—contrary to current market expectations—it could serve as a bullish catalyst for crypto assets. In such a scenario, Ethereum may gain momentum and aim for the $4,000 level.

Rising Market Expectations

As bullish sentiment builds across the market, a successful breakout by Ethereum could bring positive momentum to the broader altcoin space. Still, traders are advised to stay cautious ahead of macroeconomic decisions, as such events often cause sharp and sudden price swings.

This crucial period for Ethereum could also play a defining role in setting the tone for the overall direction of the crypto markets in the coming days.

This content is not financial advice. Markets carry high risks, and you should always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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Bitcoin Key Levels

• Support: $116,373

• Resistance: $119,313

Currently trading around $117,511, Bitcoin is showing short-term bullish signals. The upcoming release of key macroeconomic data and developments related to ETFs may support a move toward the $119,313 resistance level.

Long Positions Dominate the Market

Looking at long/short ratios across major exchanges, it’s clear that long positions are dominant. This reflects traders’ expectations for a short-term upward move. However, as always, caution is advised when engaging in high-leverage trades.

Ethereum and Altcoins Rebound

Ethereum rose by 1.68% in the last 24 hours to reach $3,753, marking a 5.40% weekly gain. This upward momentum has also spread to the broader altcoin market. Following yesterday’s sharp pullback, many strong altcoins quickly recovered and are now pushing back toward key resistance levels.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk, and you should always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Is the Breakdown a Manipulation?

This recent dip appears to carry signs of market manipulation. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $116,373 level, we may see a potential climb toward $119,313. On the other hand, a failure to break through and a continued downward trend could drag the price back toward $112,500, acting as the next major support.

Key Technical Levels for Bitcoin

• Resistance: $116,373

• Support: $112,500

Bitcoin & Ethereum: Current Market Snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC):

• Price: $115,757

• 24h Change: -2.31%

• 7d Change: -2.68%

Ethereum (ETH):

• Price: $3,711.85

• 24h Change: +2.30%

• 7d Change: +2.67%

Long vs. Short Positions: A Delicate Balance

The current balance between long and short positions signals a potentially volatile period ahead. Neither bulls nor bears dominate, which often precedes sudden and sharp price movements in either direction.

Market Liquidations and Investor Sentiment

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has witnessed significant volatility. A total of $515 million was wiped out, with $363 million of that coming from liquidated long positions. This highlights the risks faced by leveraged traders during sudden corrections.

Galaxy Digital’s Massive BTC Transfers

Adding fuel to the recent decline was the activity of institutional player Galaxy Digital. The firm transferred over 13,000 BTC to various exchanges, with the most recent move involving 965 BTC sent to Binance. Such large-scale movements typically increase selling pressure and contribute to downward price momentum.

Altcoin Market Outlook: Waiting on Bitcoin

The altcoin market hasn’t been immune to Bitcoin’s drop. Although minor recoveries are visible, sentiment remains cautious. For a sustained altcoin rebound, Bitcoin’s trend direction must first become clear.

Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels — not only for Bitcoin but also for major altcoins, as their performance is often tightly correlated with Bitcoin’s price action.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry high risks, and it’s important to do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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