After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unlawful, Trump unveiled a new measure: a 10% global tariff to remain in effect for 150 days. The Court determined that the president had exceeded his authority under the statute. Despite the legal setback, Wall Street’s main indexes advanced following the decision, reflecting short-term relief in equity markets.

U.S. Growth Slows, Inflation Persists

Fresh data showed that the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, significantly below the 3% pace economists had projected. The slowdown was attributed to the impact of a government shutdown and softer consumer spending, both of which weighed on overall activity.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose 0.4% in December, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase. The combination of cooling growth and persistent inflation underscores the fragile state of the U.S. economy.

Market participants continue to price in two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first widely expected in June. Lower interest rates and ongoing uncertainty traditionally provide a supportive backdrop for precious metals.

Gold and Silver Surged!

Against this backdrop of economic and political uncertainty, spot gold climbed 2.24% on the day, reaching $5,108 per ounce. The move reflects renewed safe-haven flows as investors hedge against macroeconomic risks and trade-related disruptions.

Silver outperformed, posting a daily gain of 7.78% to trade near $84 per ounce. The rally was supported not only by defensive positioning but also by expectations tied to industrial demand dynamics.

The latest developments suggest that trade policy uncertainty, growth concerns, and monetary policy expectations will remain central drivers for precious metals in the weeks ahead.

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The Court invalidated Trump’s previous use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as the basis for broad tariff measures. In its opinion, the justices emphasized that in the roughly fifty years since the law’s enactment, no president had invoked it to implement tariffs of such scale. The ruling also reaffirmed that under Article I, Section 8 of the U.S. Constitution, the authority to levy taxes and duties rests with Congress.

A Shift to Alternative Trade Laws

Rather than retreating, Trump signaled a strategic pivot. Describing the Court’s decision as misguided, he made clear that tariffs would remain a central component of his trade agenda. The newly announced 10% global tariff will be implemented using provisions from the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and the Trade Act of 1974.

Specifically, Trump confirmed that existing national security tariffs under Sections 232 and 301 will remain fully in effect. In addition, he intends to invoke Section 122 to layer a new 10% global tariff on top of standard duties already in place. This approach reframes the legal justification while maintaining the substance of the trade policy.

Background: Previous Tariffs and Legal Challenges

Prior to the Supreme Court’s decision, the administration had imposed a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods under IEEPA. These measures were justified on grounds ranging from combating drug inflows framed as a public health crisis to addressing trade imbalances that allegedly threatened U.S. industrial capacity.

The Supreme Court, however, concluded that these justifications did not meet the threshold for national security emergencies under IEEPA, thereby limiting executive authority in this context.

Potential Market Impact

Historically, tariff announcements have triggered volatility across global markets, particularly in high-risk asset classes such as equities and cryptocurrencies. Heightened trade tensions often undermine investor confidence and contribute to short-term sell-offs.

With a new 10% global tariff now on the table, market participants will be closely monitoring both the legal ramifications and the broader economic consequences. Trade policy uncertainty may once again become a key driver of financial market sentiment in the weeks ahead.

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On a daily basis, spot gold declined by 0.14%, while spot silver posted a 1.01% gain. Despite silver’s positive close, intraday price action across both metals suggests that markets are entering a consolidation phase following a strong rally in recent weeks.

Trade Policies and Global Tensions Drove the Recent Rally

The sharp rise in gold and silver prices over the past period was largely fueled by uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and escalating geopolitical tensions. In particular, expectations that the United States would implement new tariffs boosted demand for safe-haven assets, pushing precious metals toward all-time highs.

As these risks intensified, investors increasingly sought protection in gold and silver. However, the subsequent easing of those concerns has begun to reverse that trend.

Gold outlook:

Silver outlook:

Trump’s Tariff Decision Shifts Market Expectations

Market sentiment changed notably after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the planned tariffs would not be implemented. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump stated that the framework for a potential agreement involving Greenland had become clearer.

As part of this development, tariffs scheduled to take effect on February 1 were suspended in connection with the Greenland negotiations. The removal of this immediate trade risk reduced short-term demand for safe-haven assets, putting downward pressure on precious metal prices.

Greenland Talks Gain Momentum at the Highest Level

According to Trump’s remarks, negotiations related to Greenland will be led by senior U.S. officials. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to take charge of the talks.

The involvement of top-level policymakers underscores that the issue extends beyond trade, carrying broader strategic and geopolitical implications.

U.S. Eyes Role in Greenland’s Mineral Resources

Trump also indicated that the United States could play a role in Greenland’s mineral rights under a potential agreement. This statement points to a longer-term strategic interest in the region’s natural resource potential.

Estimates suggest that Greenland’s natural resource reserves may be worth approximately $5 trillion, highlighting why the territory has become increasingly significant in global energy and raw materials discussions.

Precious Metals Enter a Short-Term Consolidation Phase

With tariff-related risks diminishing and geopolitical tensions temporarily easing, the upward momentum in gold and silver has weakened. Still, analysts caution that global economic and political uncertainties have not disappeared entirely.

As a result, while precious metals may experience volatility and consolidation in the near term, it may be premature to conclude that safe-haven demand has fully faded. Markets will continue to monitor geopolitical developments and global trade signals closely, as any renewed uncertainty could quickly restore interest in gold and silver.

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The broader market followed suit. Total crypto market capitalization fell by approximately $225 billion, sliding to $3.08 trillion. This marked the steepest market-wide decline since mid-November, highlighting a renewed shift toward risk aversion across global assets.

Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Price Levels

Bitcoin extended its losses on Tuesday, falling nearly 4% on the day and briefly touching $87,790 on Coinbase. The price marked Bitcoin’s lowest level since late December, effectively resetting its year-to-date performance.

Liquidation data shows that roughly 93% of forced closures over the past two days came from long positions, underscoring how heavily positioned the market was on the bullish side. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin also slipped below its 50-day exponential moving average, a level that had previously acted as strong support during the recent rally.

The breakdown has shifted short-term market structure from consolidation to correction, increasing sensitivity to macro-driven headlines.

Is the “Sell America” Trade Re-Emerging?

One of the dominant narratives behind the sell-off has been the return of trade-related uncertainty. Renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump have reignited concerns over global trade tensions, prompting investors to reassess exposure to U.S.-linked risk assets.

This dynamic mirrors the so-called “Sell America” trade that emerged earlier in the year, where capital rotated away from U.S. equities, bonds, and risk assets amid policy uncertainty. However, market participants increasingly agree that tariffs alone do not fully explain the scale and speed of the current drawdown.

Japanese Bond Market Turmoil Sends Shockwaves Globally

A major contributing factor has been extreme volatility in the Japanese government bond market. Yields on Japan’s 10-year bonds surged by nearly 19 basis points over two days, while 30-year yields recorded their largest single-day increase since 2003.

The move reflects rising concerns over fiscal expansion, increased government spending, and tightening liquidity conditions. As Japanese bonds play a central role in global funding markets, this sudden repricing has forced investors to unwind positions across multiple asset classes.

Analysts warn that such moves risk accelerating the unwinding of carry trades, a key source of global liquidity. As leverage is reduced, assets with higher sensitivity to liquidity—such as cryptocurrencies—tend to face disproportionate selling pressure.

Bitcoin Caught Between Hard Asset Narrative and Liquidity Reality

Despite often being compared to gold due to its fixed supply, Bitcoin continues to behave differently during periods of financial stress. While gold reached fresh all-time highs during this risk-off phase, Bitcoin struggled to attract defensive flows.

This divergence highlights Bitcoin’s current positioning: structurally aligned with hard assets, but tactically treated as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset. As capital shifts away from U.S. markets and geopolitical uncertainty intensifies, Bitcoin has been pulled into a broader deleveraging cycle rather than benefiting from safe-haven demand.

Some analysts suggest that if liquidity conditions stabilize, Bitcoin could follow gold’s trajectory with a delay. For now, however, macro forces remain the dominant driver.

Market Outlook: Volatility Likely to Persist

The past few days have reinforced a key reality for crypto markets: price action is increasingly dictated by global macroeconomic developments rather than purely crypto-native factors. Turmoil in Japanese bond markets, uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, and tightening liquidity conditions are all feeding into elevated volatility.

Until clarity emerges on these fronts, short-term stability remains unlikely. Bitcoin’s next directional move will depend not only on technical levels, but on whether global capital flows begin to normalize or continue retreating from risk.

For investors, the coming period may test conviction, as macro-driven shocks continue to override local market narratives.

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Trade War Fears Resurface

The primary catalyst behind the recent weakness has been the re-emergence of trade tensions between the United States and the European Union. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that, starting February 1, a 10% tariff will be imposed on imports from eight European countries. This announcement has significantly reduced investors’ appetite for risk-oriented assets.

Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. officials signaled that if ongoing disputes related to Greenland are not resolved, tariffs could be increased to as high as 25% by June. In response, the European Union is reportedly preparing retaliatory measures that could reach up to $100 billion. This escalating rhetoric has reinforced a global “risk-off” environment, putting additional pressure on cryptocurrencies and triggering double-digit declines in some altcoins.

Total Market Cap Approaches Key Levels

From a technical perspective, the current price action raises the risk of a deeper pullback in total crypto market value toward the $3.05 trillion support zone. A clear break below this area could accelerate selling momentum and open the door for a move toward the psychologically important $3 trillion level.

Conversely, if selling pressure begins to ease, the market may attempt to stabilize around the $3.09 trillion region in the short term. Whether this zone can hold will likely depend on broader macro developments rather than crypto-specific news.

Bitcoin (BTC) Tests Critical Support

Bitcoin has retreated from its recent highs near $97,000 and is currently trading around $91,250. With bullish momentum fading, selling pressure remains visible. The $90,000 level stands out as a crucial psychological and technical support area.

While BTC is still trading above its 50-day exponential moving average and its primary uptrend line, a loss of these supports could increase downside risk. On the other hand, holding above current levels may allow for a short-term relief bounce, provided broader market sentiment improves.

Positive Fundamentals Take a Back Seat

Despite the near-term weakness, longer-term structural developments remain constructive for the crypto sector. Initiatives such as Bermuda’s ambition to build a fully on-chain national economy and the New York Stock Exchange’s plans around tokenized securities and 24/7 trading highlight ongoing institutional progress. However, in the current climate of macro uncertainty, these positive signals are struggling to translate into price support.

For now, the direction of the crypto market will continue to be driven largely by global trade dynamics and macroeconomic headlines. As long as uncertainty persists, elevated volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the market.

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Bitcoin Drops Sharply Amid Liquidation Wave

Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline during early Monday trading, falling nearly 3.6% within a few hours. The price dropped from around $95,450 to below $92,000, reflecting a swift shift in market sentiment. This move disproportionately affected leveraged traders, as long positions were aggressively unwound.

Roughly $750 million in long liquidations occurred over a four-hour window, pushing total liquidations over the past 24 hours beyond $860 million. Although Bitcoin later staged a modest rebound toward the $92,500 area, the speed and scale of the decline highlighted the market’s sensitivity to macro-driven shocks.

Precious Metals Reassert Safe-Haven Status

While digital assets struggled, traditional safe havens attracted renewed demand. Gold futures surged to an all-time high of $4,667 per ounce, signaling a strong flight to safety. Silver followed suit, climbing above $93 per ounce for the first time on record.

The divergence between crypto assets and precious metals underscored a broader reallocation of capital, as investors sought protection against geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty.

U.S.–EU Trade Dispute Escalates

The volatility was sparked by Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the U.S. would impose a 10% tariff on imports from eight European countries starting February 1. These include Denmark, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom. The tariffs could rise to 25% by June if negotiations fail, with Greenland-related geopolitical demands reportedly at the center of the dispute.

European leaders responded with strong rhetoric. French President Emmanuel Macron urged the EU to consider activating its “anti-coercion instrument,” often described as a trade “bazooka,” which could restrict U.S. access to European markets. In parallel, the EU is weighing the activation of €93 billion in previously delayed retaliatory tariffs.

Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold

Market participants increasingly view the situation as a catalyst for broader risk aversion. Heightened trade war fears are pressuring assets perceived as risk-sensitive, including Bitcoin. Analysts note that if uncertainty persists, volatility is likely to remain elevated across both crypto and traditional markets. In the longer term, however, the direction of global liquidity and monetary policy will remain key factors shaping market behavior.

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The Largest Liquidation in History: $19 Billion Evaporated

On the night of October 11, 2025, crypto markets witnessed the largest leveraged position liquidation in history. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new and high tariffs on Chinese imports suddenly ended global risk appetite and created a massive shock wave in financial markets. Cryptocurrencies were also heavily affected, with over $19 billion in leveraged positions liquidated in just hours. This massive liquidation left many investors in difficult situations while painfully highlighting the market’s vulnerability due to leverage once again.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp drop, spiking down from $122,000 levels to below $103,000.

Up to 70% Value Losses in Altcoins on October 11 Night

On the night of October 11, when the record $19 billion liquidation occurred, alongside Bitcoin’s sharp drop, altcoin markets saw massive losses of up to 70%. Particularly high-leverage altcoins with smaller market caps compared to Bitcoin melted away in this panic selling wave. For example, popular altcoins like XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced significant value losses. The total crypto market cap dropped by approximately $800 billion in just a few hours, falling from $4.3 trillion to $3.64 trillion. These sharp declines once again reminded investors of the risks of leveraged trading and the devastating impact of market shocks on altcoins.

Many Altcoins Dropped to Their Historic Lows

2025 was like a winter season for many altcoins. As a result of deep market-wide corrections and investors shifting toward Bitcoin (increasing “Bitcoin Dominance”), numerous altcoins approached or retested their all-time lows. This was particularly devastating for projects that had inflated with speculative buying during the 2021 and early 2024 bull runs.

Argentina President Scandal: LIBRA Coin and 99% Collapse

In February 2025, Argentine President Javier Milei’s social media post supporting a “meme coin” project called LIBRA caused a major scandal in the crypto market. The coin, associated with the president’s dog’s name, rapidly rose in the first hours with presidential backing, reaching a $4.5 billion market cap. However, immediately after this rapid rise, doubts about the project’s reliability and Milei’s deletion of his posts led to LIBRA’s value collapsing by nearly 99% in hours, dropping to $200 million. This event exposed the extremely speculative nature of meme coin projects and the manipulative influence of political figures, causing many investors to suffer massive losses.

Ethereum Spiking Down to $1,380

The general market correction that began after Bitcoin reached historic highs deeply affected Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin. During the sharp price movements in 2025, Ethereum experienced a steep drop to $1,380 levels at one point.

Having shown more resilient performance earlier in the year with less loss relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum retreated to these important psychological levels amid overall market uncertainty and selling pressure. This drop was a concrete example of how panic in the market and macroeconomic factors can impact even the strongest projects.

Fear Index Hit Its Lowest Level in the Last 3 Years

The Fear and Greed Index, which measures sentiment in crypto markets, dropped to 9 amid all these turbulences, reaching one of the lowest levels in the past three years. Values close to 0 on the index represent “Extreme Fear,” while values close to 100 represent “Extreme Greed.”

The index falling to 9 indicated that investors were in great panic and uncertainty, completely avoiding risk, with intense selling pressure dominating the market. Although this level is typically considered close to market bottoms, it was striking data revealing how worn investor psychology was and how shaken confidence in the market had become.

An Unforgettable Year in the Crypto Markets

This chain of events proved that the past year was an unforgettable and lesson-filled period for crypto markets. Excessive leverage, macroeconomic uncertainties, and sudden collapses triggered by political events forced investors to rethink the importance of risk management and market sentiment.

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A Controversial $2,000 Payout Proposal by Trump

In a statement shared on Truth Social, Trump said that millions of Americans—excluding high-income groups—would qualify for at least $2,000 per person. The payments would be financed through revenue generated by the administration’s broad tariff policies.

Yet the legality of those tariffs is currently under judicial review. Prediction markets show significant skepticism about the plan’s approval. Traders on Kalshi assign only a 23% chance that the Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs, while Polymarket participants place the probability at 21%.

Responding to criticism, Trump argued that the president has far greater authorities—such as halting trade entirely or licensing foreign countries—and questioned why imposing tariffs for national security purposes faces legal challenges.

Short-Term Market Support, Long-Term Inflation Concerns

Following the announcement, market analysts noted that such cash transfers could inject liquidity into the economy and potentially lift asset prices. According to estimates from The Kobeissi Letter, around 85% of U.S. adults would likely be eligible for the payment, based on stimulus distribution data from the COVID era.

However, analysts also cautioned that any form of broad stimulus carries inflationary risks. Bitcoin advocate Simon Dixon warned that unless recipients invest the funds, the purchasing power of the checks may diminish quickly or simply flow into banks as debt servicing.

Investor Anthony Pompliano emphasized that financial markets historically respond to stimulus with upward momentum, particularly for stocks and Bitcoin, which tend to thrive in liquidity-rich environments.

A Potential Catalyst for Crypto Amid Legal Uncertainty

While Trump’s tariff dividend could act as a bullish driver for digital assets, the proposal remains uncertain until the Supreme Court issues its decision. The ruling will play a critical role not only in determining the future of the policy but also in shaping its potential impact on both the U.S. economy and the cryptocurrency market.

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November: Historically Bitcoin’s Most Bullish Month

According to Markus Thielen from 10x Research, seasonal trends should be considered in combination with broader economic factors:
“Seasonal charts certainly matter, but they must be evaluated alongside macroeconomic developments,” Thielen noted.

Expectations for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts and progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China are contributing to a bullish outlook. Nevertheless, uncertainties surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and ongoing tariff policies continue to cast a shadow over economic stability.

U.S.–China Trade Tensions Begin to Ease

A recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was viewed as a step forward in reducing trade frictions. Trump described the talks in South Korea as “excellent.”

As part of the discussions, Trump agreed to scale back certain tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing taking stronger action against fentanyl trade, resuming soybean imports from the U.S., and suspending rare earth export restrictions for a year.

These developments come after the severe $19 billion liquidation wave on Oct. 11, which triggered a sharp market decline. Still, Georgetown University professor Dennis Wilder warned that the meeting merely represented “a pause” in the trade war rather than a lasting resolution.

Fed Rate Cuts and End of Quantitative Tightening

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve officials approved another quarter-point rate cut, lowering borrowing costs to their lowest level in three years. According to CME’s FedWatch data, traders currently assign a 63% probability to another rate cut at the December 10 meeting.

Although Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another reduction is “not a foregone conclusion,” the central bank’s decision to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1 is seen as bullish for risk assets. Ending QT effectively halts liquidity withdrawal from the economy — a move that historically benefits markets like Bitcoin.

Government Shutdown Impacting Crypto Regulation

The U.S. government shutdown has now stretched into its fifth week, nearing record territory as political gridlock continues. President Trump has blamed the Senate’s filibuster rule for the stalemate and urged Republicans to remove it, calling it “the nuclear option.”

Analysts note that resolving the shutdown is crucial not only for the broader economy but also for the crypto sector. The reopening of the government is seen as a key step toward finalizing several Bitcoin ETF approvals and advancing the CLARITY Act — a major bill aimed at establishing clear regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

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Trade Talks Boost Bitcoin and Market Sentiment

Following a record $19 billion liquidation event that triggered widespread panic, reports of a temporary tariff truce between Washington and Beijing have helped calm investor nerves. Market sentiment has shifted from “fear” to “neutral,” according to recent indicators, as hopes of de-escalation improve risk appetite across global markets.

A crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for Thursday, where both sides are expected to discuss a new framework aimed at preventing further trade tensions. Industry experts believe the outcome of the meeting could set the tone for both traditional and digital asset markets in the weeks ahead.

Wenny Cai, co-founder and COO of SynFutures, commented that the latest progress in US-China trade talks had “ignited a weekend rally in Bitcoin,” adding that optimism around the negotiations “has lifted overall risk sentiment.”

Trump Signals Confidence in Reaching a Deal

In remarks made aboard Air Force One on Monday, President Trump said he believed both nations would “come away with the deal,” fueling optimism across markets. Following his statement, Bitcoin reclaimed the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at approximately $114,000 — a key level for sustaining short-term momentum.

Analysts note that holding above this threshold is crucial for Bitcoin’s stability, as dips below it tend to trigger increased selling pressure from short-term investors. The recovery above this point suggests improving resilience in the market despite recent shocks.

Markets Eye the Upcoming Fed Decision

Attention is now turning to Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, another major catalyst for risk assets. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Expectations of lower borrowing costs are fueling demand for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Many investors anticipate that a combination of monetary easing and easing trade tensions could pave the way for a broader market recovery.

A Renewed Sense of Stability for Bitcoin

Earlier this month, Trump’s announcement of a potential 100% tariff on Chinese imports — set to take effect on November 1 — triggered a sharp sell-off, sending Bitcoin briefly below $105,000. However, recent signs of diplomatic progress and dovish monetary expectations have helped stabilize market conditions.

Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim key technical levels amid improving macroeconomic sentiment highlights the asset’s growing maturity. If Thursday’s talks result in a concrete agreement, analysts believe Bitcoin could extend its rebound and strengthen its position as a global hedge against economic uncertainty.

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