In his remarks, the President questioned the broader implications of the decision and suggested that the outcome may not align with the Court’s intended objectives. His statements have reignited debate over the economic and legal impact of tariff policies implemented during his administration.

Warning of Massive Refunds

Trump stated that the ruling could pave the way for the return of hundreds of billions of dollars to foreign governments and companies. He argued that many of these actors had, in his view, taken advantage of the U.S. economy for years, and that refunding previously collected tariffs could amplify those benefits.

Beyond the immediate financial implications, Trump suggested that the decision might allow these countries and corporations to continue profiting disproportionately from trade with the United States. He framed the potential repayments as a serious economic setback and emphasized the scale of what he described as unprecedented gains for foreign entities.

Trump: A “Deeply Disappointing” Outcome

The President characterized the Supreme Court’s ruling as “extremely disappointing,” expressing doubt that such far-reaching financial consequences were the intended result. He also raised the possibility of revisiting the case, publicly asking whether the decision could be reconsidered or reheard.

This question has fueled speculation about potential legal avenues and set the stage for further political and judicial discussions in the coming weeks.

Refund Process to Move Forward

Officials from the Trump administration indicated that the tariff refund process will proceed, though it may take considerable time due to its technical and legal complexity. The review and implementation stages are expected to unfold gradually.

Tariffs were a central pillar of Trump’s economic and trade strategy, used both as a negotiating tool and as a mechanism to address perceived imbalances. The Supreme Court’s decision introduces fresh uncertainty regarding the long-term direction of U.S. trade policy and its fiscal impact.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk, and individuals should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

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When Bitcoin was trading around $65,800, approximately 70.41% of the assets transferred to exchanges came from large holders. However, this category is not homogeneous. A deeper breakdown reveals a sharp divergence in behavior between seasoned long-term whales and newer large-scale buyers.

Newer Whales Lead the Bitcoin Sell-Off

According to the data, large investors who entered positions at relatively higher price levels transferred roughly 138,000 BTC to exchanges. This accounts for nearly all major inflows during the observed period. In contrast, long-term large holders sent only about 7,500 BTC to trading platforms.

This distinction is critical. The current wave of exchange inflows appears to be driven less by profit-taking and more by defensive selling from investors facing unrealized losses. Rather than distributing gains, newer whales seem to be reducing exposure amid heightened uncertainty.

Rising Exchange Balances Signal Growing Supply

Since January, total Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have increased by more than 32,000 BTC, reaching approximately 2.75 million BTC. An increase in exchange balances is typically interpreted as a rise in readily sellable supply, which can amplify downward price pressure.

Technically, Bitcoin’s loss of the $65,000 support level triggered additional volatility. Within 24 hours, the price fell by 4% to 5%, setting off hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations across leveraged derivatives markets. The forced unwinding of positions further intensified short-term weakness.

Macro Headwinds and the $60,000 Threshold

The broader macro backdrop has also played a role. The decision to raise global tariffs to 15% dampened overall risk appetite, prompting capital rotation toward traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk-sensitive asset in such environments, faced renewed pressure.

CryptoQuant identifies the $60,000 level as a key short-term support zone. Whether exchange inflows begin to slow will likely determine the next directional move. Continued heavy transfers could sustain downside momentum, while a reduction in sell-side flows may allow the market to stabilize and reassess its footing.

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On a daily basis, spot gold declined by 0.14%, while spot silver posted a 1.01% gain. Despite silver’s positive close, intraday price action across both metals suggests that markets are entering a consolidation phase following a strong rally in recent weeks.

Trade Policies and Global Tensions Drove the Recent Rally

The sharp rise in gold and silver prices over the past period was largely fueled by uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and escalating geopolitical tensions. In particular, expectations that the United States would implement new tariffs boosted demand for safe-haven assets, pushing precious metals toward all-time highs.

As these risks intensified, investors increasingly sought protection in gold and silver. However, the subsequent easing of those concerns has begun to reverse that trend.

Gold outlook:

Silver outlook:

Trump’s Tariff Decision Shifts Market Expectations

Market sentiment changed notably after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that the planned tariffs would not be implemented. Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump stated that the framework for a potential agreement involving Greenland had become clearer.

As part of this development, tariffs scheduled to take effect on February 1 were suspended in connection with the Greenland negotiations. The removal of this immediate trade risk reduced short-term demand for safe-haven assets, putting downward pressure on precious metal prices.

Greenland Talks Gain Momentum at the Highest Level

According to Trump’s remarks, negotiations related to Greenland will be led by senior U.S. officials. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to take charge of the talks.

The involvement of top-level policymakers underscores that the issue extends beyond trade, carrying broader strategic and geopolitical implications.

U.S. Eyes Role in Greenland’s Mineral Resources

Trump also indicated that the United States could play a role in Greenland’s mineral rights under a potential agreement. This statement points to a longer-term strategic interest in the region’s natural resource potential.

Estimates suggest that Greenland’s natural resource reserves may be worth approximately $5 trillion, highlighting why the territory has become increasingly significant in global energy and raw materials discussions.

Precious Metals Enter a Short-Term Consolidation Phase

With tariff-related risks diminishing and geopolitical tensions temporarily easing, the upward momentum in gold and silver has weakened. Still, analysts caution that global economic and political uncertainties have not disappeared entirely.

As a result, while precious metals may experience volatility and consolidation in the near term, it may be premature to conclude that safe-haven demand has fully faded. Markets will continue to monitor geopolitical developments and global trade signals closely, as any renewed uncertainty could quickly restore interest in gold and silver.

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What Is the Current Economic Outlook for the United States?

The current inflation rate in the United States is hovering around 3%. However, the FED’s target is to bring this figure down to approximately 2% annually. The interest rate applied to the U.S. dollar currently stands at around 4%. Considering the “stable but fragile” market conditions mentioned by the FED, it is expected that this rate may decline toward 3% in the near future.

The U.S. unemployment rate, which reached a historic peak of 14.9% in 2020, has since corrected to 4.3%. However, when examining the labor market over the past few months, little change is observed. Although progress continues, some FED officials consistently highlight that employment growth has slowed significantly — a trend that could lead to a higher unemployment rate.

Although the flames around tariffs seem to have cooled in recent months, tariff policies and global trade uncertainties will likely have a negative impact on inflation. This uncertainty appears poised to influence inflation in a positive direction.

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How Are the FED and Its Officials Interpreting the Situation?

• Philip Nathan Jefferson (FED Vice Chair):
  I supported the FOMC rate cut in October. Overall, the economy hasn’t changed much in recent months, but the lack of progress on inflation appears to stem from tariffs. Interest rates are close to neutral, so it’s better to move slowly.
• Michael Solomon Barr (FED Board Member):
  Progress has been made on inflation, but there’s still work to be done.
• Christopher J. Waller (FED Board Member):
  Stablecoins are not a threat to monetary policy.
• Beth M. Hammack (FED Bank President):
  I do not believe current economic data justify a rate hike. The people I’ve spoken with indicate that the labor market remains in an environment of low hiring and low layoffs. Keeping the Fed’s policy restrictive will help bring inflation down.

How Do Trump’s Trade Policies Affect the Economy?

Donald Trump referred to the ongoing legal process regarding tariffs and mentioned the need for new alternative plans. He stated that if the Supreme Court case ends unfavorably, an alternative plan is ready — though it would progress more slowly. FED officials may interpret the resulting price increases from these tariffs as renewed inflationary pressure. This is because, inevitably, import costs — and thus consumer prices — are likely to rise.

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Fentanyl Tariffs and Nvidia Chip Restrictions

After the meeting, Trump announced a reduction in overall tariffs on China from 57% to 47% and immediately lowered the fentanyl tariff to 10%. These measures alleviated long-standing investor fears over “tariff shock.”

China also agreed to suspend planned export restrictions on rare earth elements, mitigating short-term supply chain risks and production costs. Furthermore, China indicated it would discuss Nvidia chip export restrictions, while strategic raw material flows were secured.

Rare Earths and US-China Cooperation on Ukraine

The U.S. and China reached a 1-year trade deal on rare earth elements, crucial for electric vehicles, chip production, and defense industries. Trump described the agreement as “the world’s problem solved.” Additionally, both countries agreed to cooperate on Ukraine, aiming to reduce both commercial and geopolitical risks.

The deal will be renegotiated annually, with Xi visiting the U.S. and Trump visiting China in April 2026. This cooperation is vital not only for trade but also for global tech competition and supply chain security.

Trump’s Asia Tour: A New Trade Era

Trump’s Asia tour also covers trade talks with Japan, South Korea, and Canada, with signals of a forthcoming agreement with India. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategy to restore economic influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The U.S. and China also agreed on diplomatic cooperation regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially reducing global tensions.

Bitcoin Tops $110K: Crypto Market V-Shaped Recovery

Following the Trump-Xi trade deal, the crypto market rebounded sharply. Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $107,957 and $113,642 during the day, reclaiming the $111,000 level.

Other major cryptocurrencies also gained over 1%: Ethereum (ETH), XRP, BNB, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano. BTC trading volume remained stable with a 2% increase in the last 24 hours. Analysts predict a potential retest of $120,000 in November.

Elon Musk and Powell Effect

Short-term crypto market fluctuations were influenced by two factors:

• Elon Musk’s SpaceX executed a third large-scale BTC transfer.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a “hawkish” stance on interest rates.

While some investors remained cautious, the macro optimism from the Trump-Xi agreement dominated market sentiment.

Conclusion

The 1-year trade deal between Trump and Xi Jinping could mark a historic turning point not only for U.S.-China relations but also for the global economy and crypto markets. Tariff relief has restored investor confidence, allowing Bitcoin to surpass $110,000 and signaling a period of reduced geopolitical uncertainty and increased risk appetite.

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Bessent emphasized that they are currently working on an agreement that encompasses a very solid framework. He also mentioned that significant progress has been made during multiple negotiations held in Kuala Lumpur, and that the necessary conditions for the leaders to sit at the table are being established.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is expected to meet with China President Xi Jinping in the coming days. Trump stated that he believes an agreement will be signed during this meeting. The signing of such a deal is expected to bring some relief to the markets.

You may also find this article interesting: How Was CZ Forgiven?

What Will Be Discussed During the Meeting?

It is clear that many issues will be addressed in the talks, but some topics require particular attention and decisive actions. Examples include:

• Tariffs
• Rare Earth Minerals
• Agricultural Imports
• Fentanyl Production

According to sources such as Reuters and SCMP, the outcome of this agreement is expected to ease the pressure on global markets. The ongoing trade tension seems to be gradually giving way to stability. It appears that a potential settlement is not far off. Global markets are responding positively to the expectations surrounding the deal; however, experts emphasize that the true picture will only emerge after the final text of the agreement is revealed.

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What Is the Phase 1 Agreement?

Signed in January 2020 between the United States and China, the “Phase 1” trade deal required Beijing to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of goods and services from the U.S. within two years, strengthen intellectual property protections, and provide greater market access for American companies. However, according to U.S. officials, China has failed to meet a significant portion of these targets. Bloomberg Economics data indicates that China’s purchases under the agreement have fallen short by approximately 40%. Experts note that the pandemic and global supply chain disruptions have further exacerbated the situation.

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What Does the Investigation Mean?

The “Section 301” investigation is known as one of the toughest tools used by the U.S. to counter unfair trade practices. If it is determined that China violated its obligations, Washington could impose new tariffs, import restrictions, or sanctions.

A USTR spokesperson told Reuters, “The United States remains committed to taking all necessary steps to uphold fair trade principles.” Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, stating that “Beijing will not accept unilateral trade pressure from Washington.”

Tensions Rise Again

In recent months, trade tensions between the two nations have intensified once again. In September, China restricted the export of rare earth elements, while the U.S. imposed new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and battery components originating from China. Additionally, at the start of 2025, China failed to renew export registrations for certain U.S. meat processing plants, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the food trade.

Experts say the timing of the investigation is no coincidence. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in November, and Washington may be seeking to gain a stronger negotiating position ahead of the talks.

Dr. Mark Feldman, an international trade expert at Georgetown University, commented:

“This investigation is more than just an economic move—it’s a diplomatic message. The U.S. is telling China, ‘There’s a price to pay when you don’t honor your commitments.’” Analysts warn that renewed trade tensions could put pressure on agriculture, energy, and technology stocks globally, with potential volatility expected in Asian markets if new U.S. tariffs are introduced.

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Taking this dynamic into account, Trump warned, “If China doesn’t trade with us, they will be in big trouble.” This statement carries a strong diplomatic message — an attempt to signal that the U.S. can build alternative markets to counter China’s influence.

Tariff Pressure and Reciprocal Moves

Things are far from simple on the economic front. Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements. China, on the other hand, has taken a firm stance and is preparing countermeasures.

This situation creates a tension line between Trump’s strategy of “using China’s fear to bring them to the table” and China’s resistance moves. Yet Trump remains confident, saying, “China respects us right now.” Naturally, such tariffs will impact not only China’s economy but also global companies. A Reuters analysis revealed that global companies are facing costs exceeding $35 billion due to these tariffs. In other words, aggressive economic pressure mechanisms are pushing trade relations into a fragile balance.

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China Visit Planned for 2026

Perhaps the most notable announcement from Trump was that he had been invited to China and plans to visit in early 2026. The visit is reportedly aimed at achieving a “fair trade deal” with Xi Jinping. This trip is not just a symbolic diplomatic step but also carries concrete expectations. Trump aims to establish an environment of compromise that could weaken China’s control over rare earth resources and lead to the gradual withdrawal of tariffs on Chinese goods. A potential deal could boost trade volumes for both nations, but it would need to be managed with a “win-win” approach.

In recent days, Trump also made striking comments about Taiwan, saying he does not believe China intends to invade the island. However, this issue remains one of the most sensitive topics overshadowing bilateral relations.

While China views Taiwan as part of its “motherland,” the U.S. and some allies support Taiwan’s democratic government. In this scenario, trade negotiations and security concerns become deeply intertwined. Trump prefers to emphasize U.S. military superiority, stating, “No one can compete with us in this regard.” Yet, even though he claims there will be no invasion, Taiwan will inevitably remain on the discussion table between the two powers.

Possible Developments and Risks

Positive Scenario: A concrete agreement could be signed between Trump and Xi. China may show flexibility regarding rare earth export restrictions, while the U.S. could gradually lift tariffs. This would ease pressure on global supply chains and provide some relief for corporations.

Risky Scenario: If China fails to meet Trump’s expectations, the 100% tariffs will take effect, further escalating tensions. Meanwhile, if the Taiwan issue turns into a crisis, diplomatic tensions could rise sharply — affecting not only the U.S. and China but also the entire Asia-Pacific region.

World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for de-escalation between the U.S. and China, warning that a long-term “decoupling” between the two economies would harm global growth. This situation concerns not only Trump’s strategy but also the broader stability of the global economic system.

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What Powell Said About Labor Market and Risk Balance

Powell noted that labor supply has weakened in line with demand, while employment growth has sharply slowed near balance levels. He added that shifts in the risk balance may require policy adjustments. According to Powell, downside risks in the labor market are rising, and the overall economic balance is being closely monitored.

Inflation and Tariffs

Recent data shows that 12-month PCE inflation increased by 2.6% in July, with core inflation rising 2.9%. Powell emphasized the slowdown in consumer spending and the impact of tariffs on prices. A reasonable scenario assumes that tariff-related inflation effects will be temporary. However, while persistent inflation pressure is possible, labor market risks likely limit it.

Powell stressed that a one-time rise in price levels cannot be allowed to become a sustained inflation problem.

Is Powell Preparing for a Rate Cut

Following Powell’s remarks, the market is now pricing a 91.3% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the speech. Investors continue to fully price in the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of the year.

Impact on Crypto Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum Rising!

Before Powell’s speech, Bitcoin traded around $112,500, but during the speech it surged to $115,600. Ethereum also climbed to $4,600. This movement highlights how the Fed’s policy stance and dovish signals can influence crypto assets.

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Clear Signs of Economic Slowdown

In his remarks, Kashkari clearly stated that the economy is slowing. On the other hand, he noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation is still not fully understood. Despite this uncertainty, he said it may still be appropriate to begin adjusting the policy rate in the short term.

Two Rate Cuts Still Possible This Year

Kashkari stated that two rate cuts by the end of 2025 are still a valid scenario. However, there is an important condition here: if inflation starts to rise due to tariffs, the Fed may halt these cuts or even shift to a rate hike if necessary.

“Reversing Course May Be Better Than Waiting”

Kashkari emphasized that the time may have come to reverse course in rate policy, stating, “Reversing course may be better than waiting.” This message supports expectations that the Fed could move toward a monetary easing path in the fall.

Tariffs and Inflation Uncertain, But the Data is Clear

Kashkari said, “We don’t yet know what will happen with inflation, but the data we have on the slowdown is quite clear.” This indicates that the Fed may act based on growth data, even in the face of a murky inflation outlook.

Polymarket Data: Strong Rate Cuts Expectations

Meanwhile, with only 41 days left until the FOMC meeting on September 17, 2025, market expectations are already forming. According to Polymarket data:

• A 7% chance of a 50 basis point cut is expected,

• A 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut is projected,

• A 19% likelihood suggests no change in rates.

These figures indicate that markets are largely positioning toward a rate cut scenario.

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