Bessent emphasized that they are currently working on an agreement that encompasses a very solid framework. He also mentioned that significant progress has been made during multiple negotiations held in Kuala Lumpur, and that the necessary conditions for the leaders to sit at the table are being established.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is expected to meet with China President Xi Jinping in the coming days. Trump stated that he believes an agreement will be signed during this meeting. The signing of such a deal is expected to bring some relief to the markets.

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What Will Be Discussed During the Meeting?

It is clear that many issues will be addressed in the talks, but some topics require particular attention and decisive actions. Examples include:

• Tariffs
• Rare Earth Minerals
• Agricultural Imports
• Fentanyl Production

According to sources such as Reuters and SCMP, the outcome of this agreement is expected to ease the pressure on global markets. The ongoing trade tension seems to be gradually giving way to stability. It appears that a potential settlement is not far off. Global markets are responding positively to the expectations surrounding the deal; however, experts emphasize that the true picture will only emerge after the final text of the agreement is revealed.

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What Is the Phase 1 Agreement?

Signed in January 2020 between the United States and China, the “Phase 1” trade deal required Beijing to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of goods and services from the U.S. within two years, strengthen intellectual property protections, and provide greater market access for American companies. However, according to U.S. officials, China has failed to meet a significant portion of these targets. Bloomberg Economics data indicates that China’s purchases under the agreement have fallen short by approximately 40%. Experts note that the pandemic and global supply chain disruptions have further exacerbated the situation.

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What Does the Investigation Mean?

The “Section 301” investigation is known as one of the toughest tools used by the U.S. to counter unfair trade practices. If it is determined that China violated its obligations, Washington could impose new tariffs, import restrictions, or sanctions.

A USTR spokesperson told Reuters, “The United States remains committed to taking all necessary steps to uphold fair trade principles.” Meanwhile, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, stating that “Beijing will not accept unilateral trade pressure from Washington.”

Tensions Rise Again

In recent months, trade tensions between the two nations have intensified once again. In September, China restricted the export of rare earth elements, while the U.S. imposed new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and battery components originating from China. Additionally, at the start of 2025, China failed to renew export registrations for certain U.S. meat processing plants, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the food trade.

Experts say the timing of the investigation is no coincidence. U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet in November, and Washington may be seeking to gain a stronger negotiating position ahead of the talks.

Dr. Mark Feldman, an international trade expert at Georgetown University, commented:

“This investigation is more than just an economic move—it’s a diplomatic message. The U.S. is telling China, ‘There’s a price to pay when you don’t honor your commitments.’” Analysts warn that renewed trade tensions could put pressure on agriculture, energy, and technology stocks globally, with potential volatility expected in Asian markets if new U.S. tariffs are introduced.

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Trump’s remarks about “liquidation or revolution” refer to structural transformations and political tensions in South Korea. However, according to analysts, there is no sudden revolution or destructive crisis; rather, economic reforms, diplomatic balancing efforts, and tensions originating from North Korea are coming to the forefront.

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Trade and Defense at the Forefront of the Summit

On August 25, at the summit held between the US and South Korea, the two countries decided to strengthen cooperation in trade and defense. South Korea pledged investments in strategic sectors such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, and battery production. As part of the shipbuilding plan announced by Trump under the slogan “Make America Shipbuilding Great Again (MASGA),” South Korea committed to an investment of $150 billion.

The South Korean National Assembly passed a significant law changing the governance structure of large corporations. The new regulation stipulates that audit committee members will be elected through separate votes and facilitates minority shareholders’ representation. This step aims to reduce the long-debated “Korea discount” issue in the South Korean stock market. However, the business community voiced objections, warning that the reforms could increase management conflicts.

China and North Korea Factor

Before the summit, the Seoul administration sent a message to Beijing calling for the “normalization” of economic relations. In this way, South Korea is trying to pursue a balanced foreign policy with both the US and China.
On the other hand, harsh statements from North Korea are increasing tensions in the region. Kim Yo Jong accused South Korea of being a “proxy of the US” while rejecting the possibility of dialogue between the two countries.

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Main Provisions of the Agreement

• The U.S. agreed to implement a fixed 15% customs tariff on goods imported from the EU, stepping back from a potential 30% high tariff.

• Including the automotive sector, most products will be subject to this 15% tariff. Von der Leyen emphasized that the agreement covers a “flat 15% all-inclusive tariff.”

• Special products in the pharmaceutical sector (such as generic drugs and certain chemicals) will likely be exempt from tariffs or subject to special arrangements; details will be clarified in further negotiations.

Additional Commitments

• The EU announced that in the coming period, it will purchase $750 billion worth of American energy products.

• Additionally, the EU has committed to a $600 billion investment package.

• Initiatives may be launched for a “zero-zero” tariff on certain strategic sectors (such as aerospace components and semiconductors); however, the harmonization process is still ongoing.

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Allianz leadership assessed the agreement as a move to avoid a crisis for Germany’s strong automotive industry.Chairman of the European Parliament’s Trade Committee Bernd Lange criticized the deal as “unbalanced”, stating that the investment commitments could come at a cost for EU industry. Trump described the deal as a “good deal for everybody”.

The written version of the agreement has not yet been published, as final approval from EU member states and parliaments is still pending. This arrangement reflects an approach consistent with other **15–20% tariff trade agreements** signed by the Trump administration with countries like Japan, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.

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In May, the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 30%; in return, China agreed to cut tariffs on the U.S. from 125% to 10% as part of a temporary 90-day compromise. Although this comprehensive policy shift provided a temporary breather, the infrastructure remains unclear and negotiations continue for long-term solutions.

What Is Expected from the Talks?

The Stockholm talks that began on July 28 brought together high-level representatives from both the U.S. and China. Key figures such as Scott Bessent from the U.S. Treasury and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng participated in these discussions, which focused on shaping the draft details of trade agreements. During the negotiations, it is especially expected that the U.S. side will bring up special additional tariffs related to synthetic drugs (fentanyl) again.

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Positive Development:

• Major companies (such as Apple, Amazon) reacted positively in the markets thanks to this temporary relaxation. Significant increases were observed in Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

• For China, where alternatives to boost domestic demand are limited, such compromises have become an important tool for economic revival.

For Small Businesses:

• While this extension provides relief for some in the business world, small businesses are facing serious challenges such as planning uncertainty, inventory management, and cost forecasting. Critics argue that “working within temporary windows can impose a heavy burden on small businesses.”

If no agreement is reached, tariffs could quickly return to levels above 145%. This could lead to major disruptions in supply chains and global price increases. In the long term, a permanent solution is needed, and this extension essentially aims to strengthen the groundwork for constructive negotiation.

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• Trump reminded that EU steel and aluminum imports currently face 50% tariffs, automotive products 25%, and other goods 10%.

• If the tariff increases can be reduced by August 1, 2025, the planned 30% customs duty could be avoided.

• A potential framework agreement, similar to the one reached with Japan, could impose a 15% base tariff on most EU goods and higher rates in critical sectors like steel and automotive.

EU’s Strategic Approach

Ursula von der Leyen stated that she believes the meeting in Scotland will be “positive” and that negotiations on behalf of the EU will continue. EU Member States have prepared €93 billion worth of retaliatory measures in case of a possible disagreement. Differences in views among countries are apparent: Germany favors a quick resolution to protect the automotive sector, while France and Spain resist in favor of a more balanced and fair deal.

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Possible Scenarios

1. If a framework agreement is reached

   • A 15% base tariff could be accepted. The planned 30% tariff on August 1 would be avoided.

   • A structure similar to the recent U.S.-Japan agreement might be implemented by June.

2. If talks fail

   • The U.S. may implement the planned 30% tariff.

   • The EU could enforce billions of euros worth of retaliatory tariffs.

In short, the Donald Trump – von der Leyen meeting in Scotland on Sunday, July 27 marks a turning point in EU–U.S. relations. If the 20 key issues—especially tariffs—are resolved, there may be a path forward; otherwise, transatlantic trade may enter a renewed period of tension.

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During a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun, Bessent discussed finding a new equilibrium on tariffs to encourage rather than restrict trade. The Treasury emphasized that talks focused on creating an “expanded equilibrium” to boost trade between the allies.

India Close To Securing Trade Deal With US

Meanwhile, Scott Bessent said India could be among the first countries to finalize a new trade deal with the U.S., avoiding President Trump’s suite of “reciprocal” tariffs. Speaking at the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, Bessent noted that India’s lower tariffs and minimal trade barriers made negotiations easier.

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U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a roadmap on Tuesday to advance trade talks, with a 26% tariff potentially coming into effect in July if no deal is reached.

Talks With China Stalled

Bessent also revealed that trade talks with China have stalled. With tariff rates on Chinese imports exceeding 145%, Bessent emphasized that both sides see these levels as unsustainable. However, he insisted that the U.S. would not unilaterally reduce duties.

Bessent added that the U.S. is continuing negotiations with 15 major trading partners aside from China, including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom.

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