We will keep the stock market at an all-time high.

With this promise, he once again gives hope to those already in the market or considering entering, possibly triggering another upward move. However, investors still hold one major doubt and one crucial question: How realistic are these words? Looking at today’s economic landscape, it is quite clear that there is a significant gap between what is being said and what is actually happening.

What Changed When Donald Trump Took Office?

In 2025, Donald Trump made numerous statements about the economy and initiated several actions—many of which, so to speak, backfired and painted markets in red. Despite the negative impact of his trade tariffs and policies on many sectors, he insisted that the U.S. stock market was “stronger” and that his intention was to keep it elevated. He even emphasized that everyone should remember how U.S. markets reached record highs earlier this year. While some investors criticize Trump’s approach, could the so-called “Trump effect” actually have had a positive influence?

However, despite these claims, the markets have frequently experienced major instability. Starting from the early months of 2025, U.S. indexes suffered sharp declines due to imposed tariffs, global trade tensions, and ongoing economic uncertainty. In fact, double-digit losses were not uncommon.

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Can Donald Trump Really Keep the Market at Its Peak?

High market prices are not sustained by statements alone. Although remarks can create short-term upward or downward movements, real market direction is driven by the following factors:

• Economic Data
• Global Balances
• Corporate Earnings Reports
• Interest – Inflation Rates
• Global Trade

These variables are the true determinants of market direction. Therefore, when a leader says “I will keep the stock market at its peak,” it naturally raises significant, and often unanswered, questions.

Recently, margin debt reached an all-time high. Margin debt represents the amount of money investors borrow from brokerage firms through margin accounts. This indicator is often used to evaluate potential market tops and bottoms. When margin debt hits a record level and the markets also reach record highs, the situation is commonly described as a “reflex” move or even a “bubble.” Under such circumstances, how convincing can Trump’s claim really be?

Periods like these offer the potential for high profits but carry equally high risks. They cannot be sustained by a single political statement.

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Following the announcement, Bitcoin’s price surged rapidly. At the time of the news, BTC climbed to $119,800. Earlier in the day, it had surpassed $122,000, gaining momentum toward a $123,000 record. However, this rise was short-lived, and BTC fell back to $119,000. 

Critical Levels and CME Gap in Bitcoin Price 

According to analysts, there is a significant CME gap below the $119,000 level. Coinmühendisi analysts mentioned this gap in their analysis yesterday morning. Titan of Crypto also noted that this gap needs to be filled before the upward trend can continue. This could limit BTC’s short-term movement. Historically, price has often moved to close this gap. 

Meanwhile, upcoming CPI and PPI data releases in the U.S. will also influence price direction. The figures, due on August 12 and 13, will clarify inflation trends. A decrease in inflation would strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September. Currently, the probability of a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting stands at 86.4%. 

Two Possible BTC Scenarios from Analysts 

Crypto analyst Altcoin Shrpa pointed out two potential scenarios for BTC. In the first, the price pulls back to form a higher timeframe bottom, which could take weeks, followed by a more sustainable rise. In the second scenario, the price could retest the $120,000 peak, coinciding with increased treasury activities and macroeconomic developments. 

Ultimately, both shifts in trade policies and economic data will determine Bitcoin’s direction. Investors are closely monitoring these developments to shape their strategies. 

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The Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be published on August 14. PPI is the last key metric to guide the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged. In addition, expectations for a rate cut in September remain in place. These figures will play a role in shaping the possible decision. On the same day, US jobless claims will also be announced, with expectations at 220K compared to the previous 226K. 

Jackson Hole, Trade Tensions, and Company Developments 

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held from August 21 to 23. Organized by the Kansas City Fed, the event will bring together central bank governors, economists, and financial leaders. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the event are expected to influence market sentiment. 

In the crypto space, on August 11, Binance will delist $DEFI and $MEMEFI futures contracts. On August 12, Stellar (XLM) will publish its Q2 2025 report. Meanwhile, Orca DAO’s vote on using 55,000 Solana from its treasury for $ORCA buybacks will end the same day. 

On August 14, Lido (LDO) will hold a forum discussing its roadmap and long-term plans. On August 15, three significant events will take place. In the US, Donald Trump will meet Vladimir Putin in Alaska. FTX will make new payments to creditors as part of its bankruptcy process. In addition, SharpLink Gaming, dubbed the “MicroStrategy of Ethereum,” will release its earnings report 

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These tariffs will directly impact many trade partners. For instance, an agreement with the European Union sets a 15% tariff on cars and parts, down from the previous 27.5%. Meanwhile, tariffs up to 25% will apply to products from Canada and Mexico. Trump will also impose a 25% tariff on imports from India, aiming to improve trade balance. Negotiations with India have finalized this rate. Trump announced penalties will apply to India for continuing purchases from Russia. Brazil faces a 50% tariff rate. 

Global Trade and Tariff Implications 

Starting August 1, these tariffs will cause significant changes in global trade dynamics. Trade negotiations continue, but agreements remain pending with some countries. Talks with South Korea, India, and Brazil are ongoing. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said the tariffs won’t completely disrupt trade relations. Officials also highlighted that some tariffs may be temporary. 

Sector-specific tariffs of 15-20% will affect strategic industries such as copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. These measures focus on boosting domestic production. Overall, August 1, 2025 marks a pivotal moment in U.S. trade policy. America’s economic independence will grow while new global trade dynamics emerge.

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Strong Rally from Ethereum and Dogecoin 

Ethereum (ETH) has settled above $2,600. Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around 0.2482 cents. Both cryptocurrencies achieved double-digit gains over the past week. Dogecoin’s rise has been fueled by social media momentum. Investors are closely monitoring the performance of these two assets. 

Market Dynamics and Macro Factors 

Bitcoin hovers around $103,700. XRP, BNB, Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL) gained between 3-5%. However, a stronger dollar and renewed trade tensions are impacting the market. FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich stated, “The dollar’s strength has put pressure on cryptocurrencies.” Bitcoin is caught between its “digital gold” identity and being a risky asset. 

QCP Capital investors noted: “BTC is stuck between its ‘digital gold’ role and a risky asset. As the macro narrative shifts from protectionism to trade optimism, BTC may remain range-bound.” 

The Fear and Greed Index has stayed above 70 for four days, signaling strong buying appetite. Meanwhile, global markets are transitioning between protectionism and trade optimism. As Bitcoin approaches $105,000, investors are watching price dynamics closely. Kuptsikevich commented, “Bitcoin’s unpredictable nature persists. Will we see acceleration or failure around $105,000?” 

Growing Institutional Investor Interest 

According to CoinShares, institutional investors recorded $882 million in inflows last week. Bitcoin led with $867 million, while Ethereum saw $1.8 million in inflows. Solana experienced $3.4 million in outflows. This marks the third consecutive week of strong institutional interest. Solana’s outflows are notable despite $200 call options. Bitcoin ETFs saw $91.4 million in net outflows, while Ethereum ETFs recorded $13.5 million in net inflows. 

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“If you’re mining Bitcoin, you already understand why this asset is valuable long-term,” Glover stated. “You don’t want to sell it.”

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This debt-based approach is similar to strategies used by companies like MicroStrategy, which raise capital through debt and equity to acquire BTC and profit from the currency divergence.

Rising Competition, Falling Margins

The BTC mining hashprice, a key profitability metric, has plummeted due to increasing network difficulty. As more powerful machines are deployed, costs rise and profit margins shrink.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. trade tariffs on tech imports are inflating prices of essential mining equipment like ASICs. These conditions threaten the viability of smaller operators in the sector.

In March 2025, miners collectively sold 40% of their mined supply—marking a trend reversal since the April 2024 halving and the highest monthly liquidation rate since October 2024.

BTC-Backed Loans May Be A Lifeline

In such a climate, Bitcoin-backed loans could be a strategic lifeline. They offer operational liquidity without sacrificing long-term asset value.

As Glover noted, “If you believe BTC will rise, why sell it now and lose future upside?”

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