This was not merely a technical legal dispute. It quietly redraws the boundary between presidential power and congressional authority over taxation and trade. And in Washington, those boundaries matter more than ever when trillions in global commerce are involved.

Why the Court intervened: A clear limit on executive authority

The US Constitution explicitly grants Congress the authority to impose tariffs and regulate trade. However, the Trump administration relied on IEEPA, a law designed to allow the president to respond to “unusual and extraordinary threats” during national emergencies.

The Supreme Court focused on that distinction. The justices concluded that while IEEPA allows economic regulation in emergencies, it does not explicitly authorize the president to impose sweeping global tariffs affecting nearly all imported goods.

This interpretation aligns with the Court’s broader approach in recent years. Under what is often referred to as the “major questions doctrine,” the Court has emphasized that policies with vast economic and political consequences require clear authorization from Congress, not unilateral executive action.

Which tariffs were struck down and which remain

Importantly, the ruling does not invalidate all tariffs imposed during Trump’s administration.

Two major categories were directly affected. The first involves country-based “reciprocal tariffs,” which ranged from a baseline of approximately 10% on most countries to as high as 34% on imports from China. These tariffs were central to the administration’s broader trade confrontation strategy.

The second category includes 25% tariffs imposed on certain goods from Canada, China, and Mexico. The administration justified these measures as part of efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking and related national security concerns.

However, tariffs imposed under different legal authorities, including those targeting steel and aluminum imports, remain in effect. In other words, the ruling limits the legal mechanism used, not the entire trade strategy itself.

The $130 billion question: Will businesses receive refunds?

According to US Customs and Border Protection data, the now-invalidated tariffs generated approximately $130 billion in revenue. That number alone highlights the enormous financial implications of the Court’s decision.

Businesses that paid these tariffs may now seek refunds. Importers across multiple industries—including manufacturing, consumer goods, and wholesale distribution—could potentially recover billions of dollars.

Such refund claims typically involve lengthy legal and administrative processes. But even the possibility of reimbursement has already begun influencing corporate expectations and financial planning.

Market reaction: Risk assets find support

Financial markets responded quickly to the ruling. Companies heavily dependent on imported goods saw improved outlooks as expectations shifted toward lower import costs.

Lower tariff burdens could ease pricing pressures across supply chains. That, in turn, may reduce inflationary pressure on certain goods, at least in the near term.

The US dollar, meanwhile, faces a more complex outlook. Reduced tariffs may weaken certain structural trade advantages, potentially placing modest downward pressure on the currency over time.

Risk-sensitive assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, tend to benefit when trade tensions ease. Early market signals suggest that investors are beginning to price in a less restrictive trade environment, though uncertainty remains.

The administration may pursue alternative tariff paths

Despite the setback, the Trump administration retains options. Officials may attempt to reintroduce tariffs using alternative legal authorities that more clearly authorize such actions.

This means the broader trade conflict framework is not necessarily over. Instead, the legal pathway has narrowed, forcing future tariff decisions to rely more directly on congressional authorization or different statutory tools.

Washington’s institutional balance has shifted, at least for now. The Supreme Court has reinforced the constitutional role of Congress in shaping trade policy, while placing meaningful limits on emergency executive economic authority.

Following the decision, global trade expectations began adjusting almost immediately. Import cost projections shifted downward, while uncertainty surrounding future tariff strategies remains elevated.

Markets are recalibrating in real time. The immediate tone suggests relief, but the longer-term trajectory will depend heavily on how policymakers respond.

One thing is already clear: the Supreme Court has reshaped the legal foundation of US tariff policy. And that shift will influence executive power, global trade, and financial markets for years to come.

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Trade War Fears Resurface

The primary catalyst behind the recent weakness has been the re-emergence of trade tensions between the United States and the European Union. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that, starting February 1, a 10% tariff will be imposed on imports from eight European countries. This announcement has significantly reduced investors’ appetite for risk-oriented assets.

Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. officials signaled that if ongoing disputes related to Greenland are not resolved, tariffs could be increased to as high as 25% by June. In response, the European Union is reportedly preparing retaliatory measures that could reach up to $100 billion. This escalating rhetoric has reinforced a global “risk-off” environment, putting additional pressure on cryptocurrencies and triggering double-digit declines in some altcoins.

Total Market Cap Approaches Key Levels

From a technical perspective, the current price action raises the risk of a deeper pullback in total crypto market value toward the $3.05 trillion support zone. A clear break below this area could accelerate selling momentum and open the door for a move toward the psychologically important $3 trillion level.

Conversely, if selling pressure begins to ease, the market may attempt to stabilize around the $3.09 trillion region in the short term. Whether this zone can hold will likely depend on broader macro developments rather than crypto-specific news.

Bitcoin (BTC) Tests Critical Support

Bitcoin has retreated from its recent highs near $97,000 and is currently trading around $91,250. With bullish momentum fading, selling pressure remains visible. The $90,000 level stands out as a crucial psychological and technical support area.

While BTC is still trading above its 50-day exponential moving average and its primary uptrend line, a loss of these supports could increase downside risk. On the other hand, holding above current levels may allow for a short-term relief bounce, provided broader market sentiment improves.

Positive Fundamentals Take a Back Seat

Despite the near-term weakness, longer-term structural developments remain constructive for the crypto sector. Initiatives such as Bermuda’s ambition to build a fully on-chain national economy and the New York Stock Exchange’s plans around tokenized securities and 24/7 trading highlight ongoing institutional progress. However, in the current climate of macro uncertainty, these positive signals are struggling to translate into price support.

For now, the direction of the crypto market will continue to be driven largely by global trade dynamics and macroeconomic headlines. As long as uncertainty persists, elevated volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the market.

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Stronger Dollar Weighs on Gold

At the start of the week, spot gold declined by 1% to $4,072.65 per ounce, while U.S. December futures fell 1.3% to $4,085.60 per ounce.

The U.S. dollar strengthened to its highest level in two weeks against the Japanese yen, making gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies. The rise in the greenback also encouraged investors to shift toward riskier assets, reducing demand for gold as a traditional safe haven.

U.S.-China Talks Boost Market Sentiment

Reports over the weekend indicated that top economic officials from the United States and China had reached a preliminary framework for a new trade agreement, expected to be approved by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

According to analyst Kyle Rodda, this development was “a positive surprise for the markets,” creating short-term headwinds for gold. Rodda added that easing trade tensions improved overall market sentiment, limiting the supportive environment that typically benefits gold prices.

Markets Await Fed’s Policy Decision

Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for Wednesday, where the central bank is expected to announce its latest interest rate decision.

Recent U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, strengthening the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut. Although lower interest rates generally favor gold, many analysts believe this expectation has already been largely priced into the market.

ETF Holdings Decline, Other Metals Follow the Trend

Holdings in the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell from 1,052.37 tons to 1,046.93 tons, representing a 0.52% decrease.

The weakness in gold extended to other precious metals as well:

• Silver: down 1.3% to $48.04 per ounce

• Platinum: down 0.1% to $1,604.80 per ounce

• Palladium: down 0.8% to $1,418 per ounce

Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Potential

Analysts note that the strength of the dollar and improved market sentiment may continue to weigh on gold in the near term. However, the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and ongoing global economic uncertainties are expected to provide long-term support for the precious metal.

*This content is not investment advice.

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Trump, in a Truth Social post, emphasized that the ads should have been removed immediately, but they were aired during the World Series knowingly, calling it “fraudulent”. This justified the 10% increase in tariffs on Canada.

He further stated that Canada “misrepresented the facts” in the advertisement, calling it a “hostile act”. Outside of exemptions under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), Canada imposes tariffs of 35% on most U.S. goods, with 50% on steel and aluminum products.

Trump, while boarding Air Force One to fly to Malaysia, reiterated on Truth Social:

“The ads should have been taken down immediately, but they allowed it to run last night during the World Series, knowing it was fraudulent.”

Ontario Advertisement and Ford’s Statements

Ontario Premier Doug Ford stated that the ad would stop on Monday but remain on air over the weekend. He said, “I instructed my team to continue delivering our message to Americans during the first two World Series games.”

The Reagan Foundation also stated that Canada used the speech without permission and edited the video selectively, reviewing its legal options.

During the game where the Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 11–4, the ad was seen by millions. Ford explained that the purpose was to inform American viewers about tariffs’ impact on workers and businesses.

Ontario had announced plans to spend $75 million on the U.S. ad campaign, targeting Republican areas nationwide.

Reagan Foundation Reaction and Legal Process

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation criticized the ad for distorting the April 25, 1987, speech, sharing the full video online for viewers to watch. Ford also shared the complete video link.

In the original speech, Reagan discussed Japan’s semiconductor trade agreement and retaliatory tariffs, which were not reflected in Ontario’s ad.

The Supreme Court is expected to review in November whether President Trump has authority to impose tariffs on countries including Canada. The new 10% tariff increase took effect just before the legal process.

Trump stated: “Because they misrepresented the facts and acted hostilely, I increased tariffs.”

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Taking this dynamic into account, Trump warned, “If China doesn’t trade with us, they will be in big trouble.” This statement carries a strong diplomatic message — an attempt to signal that the U.S. can build alternative markets to counter China’s influence.

Tariff Pressure and Reciprocal Moves

Things are far from simple on the economic front. Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements. China, on the other hand, has taken a firm stance and is preparing countermeasures.

This situation creates a tension line between Trump’s strategy of “using China’s fear to bring them to the table” and China’s resistance moves. Yet Trump remains confident, saying, “China respects us right now.” Naturally, such tariffs will impact not only China’s economy but also global companies. A Reuters analysis revealed that global companies are facing costs exceeding $35 billion due to these tariffs. In other words, aggressive economic pressure mechanisms are pushing trade relations into a fragile balance.

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China Visit Planned for 2026

Perhaps the most notable announcement from Trump was that he had been invited to China and plans to visit in early 2026. The visit is reportedly aimed at achieving a “fair trade deal” with Xi Jinping. This trip is not just a symbolic diplomatic step but also carries concrete expectations. Trump aims to establish an environment of compromise that could weaken China’s control over rare earth resources and lead to the gradual withdrawal of tariffs on Chinese goods. A potential deal could boost trade volumes for both nations, but it would need to be managed with a “win-win” approach.

In recent days, Trump also made striking comments about Taiwan, saying he does not believe China intends to invade the island. However, this issue remains one of the most sensitive topics overshadowing bilateral relations.

While China views Taiwan as part of its “motherland,” the U.S. and some allies support Taiwan’s democratic government. In this scenario, trade negotiations and security concerns become deeply intertwined. Trump prefers to emphasize U.S. military superiority, stating, “No one can compete with us in this regard.” Yet, even though he claims there will be no invasion, Taiwan will inevitably remain on the discussion table between the two powers.

Possible Developments and Risks

Positive Scenario: A concrete agreement could be signed between Trump and Xi. China may show flexibility regarding rare earth export restrictions, while the U.S. could gradually lift tariffs. This would ease pressure on global supply chains and provide some relief for corporations.

Risky Scenario: If China fails to meet Trump’s expectations, the 100% tariffs will take effect, further escalating tensions. Meanwhile, if the Taiwan issue turns into a crisis, diplomatic tensions could rise sharply — affecting not only the U.S. and China but also the entire Asia-Pacific region.

World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for de-escalation between the U.S. and China, warning that a long-term “decoupling” between the two economies would harm global growth. This situation concerns not only Trump’s strategy but also the broader stability of the global economic system.

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According to sources familiar with the matter, both local governments in China and the National Development and Reform Commission — the country’s top economic planning body — have ceased granting approvals for outbound investments into the U.S. since April. The halt appears to have been implemented suddenly, with no new Chinese investment projects directed toward the U.S. currently receiving regulatory clearance.

Increasing Economic and Political Strains Between China and the US

This development signals more than just an economic maneuver. It carries substantial geopolitical implications as well. China’s decision is widely interpreted as a countermeasure to increasing U.S. restrictions targeting Chinese firms, particularly in areas such as technology transfer, cybersecurity, and national security. The move suggests that Beijing is no longer willing to tolerate what it sees as hostile trade and investment practices.

Although Chinese officials have not issued a formal public statement on the matter, insiders suggest this investment freeze is a strategic response to Washington’s ongoing efforts to limit Chinese influence in sensitive sectors. The timing and execution of the decision suggest a deliberate effort to send a strong political message.

Waiting on Washington’s Response

So far, the U.S. government has not issued an official reply to China’s decision. However, analysts believe a reaction is likely imminent, potentially in the form of economic countermeasures or diplomatic initiatives. With Chinese firms scaling back plans for technology and infrastructure investments in the U.S., the mutual economic interdependence that once defined U.S.-China relations could begin to unravel.

The ripple effects of this decision may extend beyond the two nations. Global multinational corporations are expected to closely monitor the situation, as it could influence strategic planning, supply chains, and long-term investment decisions.

Implications for Global Trade and Geopolitics

Economists are already warning that this shift in China’s investment policy could disrupt international trade balances. Some countries may find themselves reassessing their own positions as the geopolitical rivalry between China and the U.S. intensifies. The broader ramifications of this move will likely become more apparent in the coming weeks, especially as global markets and policymakers absorb the news.

Ultimately, how this new flashpoint in U.S.-China relations evolves will have far-reaching implications, not only for the two nations involved but for the entire global economy. As of now, the world is watching closely for Washington’s next move.

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Tariff Levels

According to the agreement, the US will maintain tariffs on Chinese goods at 30%; China will keep tariffs on US products at 10%. This arrangement will be valid until August 12th. However, after this date, whether the tariffs will return to previous levels will depend on US President Donald Trump’s approval. Bessent stated that if Trump does not approve, tariffs will revert to their April 2nd levels or another level decided by Trump.

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Content of the Talks

During the talks in Stockholm, not only tariffs but also topics such as China’s investment restrictions on the US, fentanyl supply, and energy trade were discussed. Both sides expressed their willingness to maintain open communication and build a more balanced trade relationship.

Global Economic Impacts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the US’s wide-ranging tariffs have negatively impacted global economic growth and fueled inflation. However, a relaxation in some trade measures has raised the global GDP forecast for 2025 to 3%.

Although this agreement between the US and China has prevented the trade war from escalating further, the situation of tariffs after August 12th remains uncertain. Whether the tariffs will continue will be crucial not only for the two countries but also for the future of the global economy.

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Main Provisions of the Agreement

• The U.S. agreed to implement a fixed 15% customs tariff on goods imported from the EU, stepping back from a potential 30% high tariff.

• Including the automotive sector, most products will be subject to this 15% tariff. Von der Leyen emphasized that the agreement covers a “flat 15% all-inclusive tariff.”

• Special products in the pharmaceutical sector (such as generic drugs and certain chemicals) will likely be exempt from tariffs or subject to special arrangements; details will be clarified in further negotiations.

Additional Commitments

• The EU announced that in the coming period, it will purchase $750 billion worth of American energy products.

• Additionally, the EU has committed to a $600 billion investment package.

• Initiatives may be launched for a “zero-zero” tariff on certain strategic sectors (such as aerospace components and semiconductors); however, the harmonization process is still ongoing.

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Allianz leadership assessed the agreement as a move to avoid a crisis for Germany’s strong automotive industry.Chairman of the European Parliament’s Trade Committee Bernd Lange criticized the deal as “unbalanced”, stating that the investment commitments could come at a cost for EU industry. Trump described the deal as a “good deal for everybody”.

The written version of the agreement has not yet been published, as final approval from EU member states and parliaments is still pending. This arrangement reflects an approach consistent with other **15–20% tariff trade agreements** signed by the Trump administration with countries like Japan, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.

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In a pointed statement shared on social media, Trump declared: “If large countries don’t fully open their markets to U.S. products, I will impose much higher tariffs.” This bold stance has the potential to significantly shift global trade balances.

Japan Agreement: A Blueprint for the EU?

According to U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Japan has agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S., and in return, Japanese exports to America will face a 15% tariff—substantially lower than the previously threatened 25% rate. Lutnick believes this deal could serve as a template for future trade negotiations with the European Union.

Clear Message to the EU: Align or Face Consequences

Lutnick emphasized that if the EU accepts U.S. products and standards, Trump would be open to a deal. Otherwise, the administration is prepared to escalate tariffs significantly. Trump is particularly focused on gaining access to the European market for U.S. cars, trucks, rice, and agricultural goods.

His message is simple: “Open your markets and tariffs come down. Refuse, and tariffs go up.”

China and H20 Chip Controls: A Delicate Balance

Trump’s trade strategy also includes ongoing discussions with China. Secretary Lutnick stated that if China continues to supply critical magnets, the U.S. will gradually lift H20 chip export controls. Trump reportedly believes China can maintain a balanced approach in its purchases of H20 products—hinting at another phase in the tech and trade tug-of-war.

What’s Next? Uncertain Terrain Ahead

Trump’s aggressive rhetoric has placed global industries—especially automotive, agriculture, and technology—on high alert. Nations doing business with the U.S. may soon have to choose between market liberalization or confronting a much tougher tariff regime.

Whether Trump’s threats are a negotiation tactic or a preview of a deeper economic policy shift remains to be seen. Either way, the tone is unmistakable: trade partners must act, or face steep costs.

Crypto Market Reacts

The trade tension has already started to ripple through risk markets. In the past four hours, the crypto market saw $305 million in liquidations. Bitcoin, under the weight of macroeconomic uncertainty, dropped 1.68% to around $117,950.

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The delegation included US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, meeting China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. The talks center around rare earth exports from China and Beijing’s access to advanced US technologies, particularly semiconductor chips.

Tariff Truce At Risk?

Although a temporary tariff truce was brokered in Geneva last month, accusations of non-compliance have followed quickly. Greer claimed China failed to remove export restrictions on rare earth magnets. Meanwhile, Beijing argued the US violated the agreement by halting sales of chip design software, discouraging the use of components from Huawei, and restricting student visas.

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The US had reduced tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% while China lowered its rates to 10%, both agreeing on a 90-day period to negotiate a full deal. Yet, both sides have since accused one another of backtracking.

Leadership Dialogue Offers Hope

The current meeting follows a rare phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping—the first direct contact since the trade war began in February. Trump described it as “a very good talk,” adding that Xi agreed to resume trade in rare earth materials.

However, White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CBS News that while exports have resumed, they still fall short of what was agreed in Geneva.

Economic Stakes Are Global

With China responsible for mining 69% of the world’s rare earth elements—used in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles—any shift in supply dynamics will ripple across global markets.

Prior to this round of talks, He Lifeng also met with UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, discussing closer cooperation on finance and economics.

Meanwhile, Trump‘s aggressive trade policy has raised concerns among economists. The OECD recently revised its global growth forecast downward to 2.9%, citing rising trade barriers.

New data from Beijing revealed May exports rose 4.8% year-over-year, while imports fell 3.4%—a much steeper decline than expected.

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