• Trump reminded that EU steel and aluminum imports currently face 50% tariffs, automotive products 25%, and other goods 10%.

• If the tariff increases can be reduced by August 1, 2025, the planned 30% customs duty could be avoided.

• A potential framework agreement, similar to the one reached with Japan, could impose a 15% base tariff on most EU goods and higher rates in critical sectors like steel and automotive.

EU’s Strategic Approach

Ursula von der Leyen stated that she believes the meeting in Scotland will be “positive” and that negotiations on behalf of the EU will continue. EU Member States have prepared €93 billion worth of retaliatory measures in case of a possible disagreement. Differences in views among countries are apparent: Germany favors a quick resolution to protect the automotive sector, while France and Spain resist in favor of a more balanced and fair deal.

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Possible Scenarios

1. If a framework agreement is reached

   • A 15% base tariff could be accepted. The planned 30% tariff on August 1 would be avoided.

   • A structure similar to the recent U.S.-Japan agreement might be implemented by June.

2. If talks fail

   • The U.S. may implement the planned 30% tariff.

   • The EU could enforce billions of euros worth of retaliatory tariffs.

In short, the Donald Trump – von der Leyen meeting in Scotland on Sunday, July 27 marks a turning point in EU–U.S. relations. If the 20 key issues—especially tariffs—are resolved, there may be a path forward; otherwise, transatlantic trade may enter a renewed period of tension.

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Trade Agreements Status

Trade Minister Howard Lutnick announced that August 1st is a “hard deadline,” and new tariffs will be imposed on countries with which no agreement has been reached after this date. Lutnick stated that a basic 10% tariff will be applied to smaller countries, but higher tariffs may be imposed on larger economies. Discussions with the EU suggest that a 15% tariff is possible.

Donald Trump directly stated about the EU: “The EU may be forced to lower its tariffs.” The European Central Bank (ECB) decided not to change interest rates due to the uncertainty that US tariffs could create for the European economy. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the effects of global trade should be monitored, and therefore interest rate policies should be carefully evaluated. The 14% appreciation of the euro against the dollar this year is affecting export competitiveness and complicating inflation dynamics.

While negotiations between the US and the EU continue, it is reported that the EU is preparing to implement counter-tariffs worth 93 billion euros. This could signal a new wave of tensions in transatlantic trade relations.

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