Investors await the Fed’s policy announcement. Rapid recovery to $100,000 seems unlikely. BTC futures premiums stayed below 5% over the past two weeks. Weak leveraged buying reflects the 28% decline since October’s all-time high.

Economic uncertainty limits investor confidence

A 43-day government funding gap in November delayed official employment and inflation data. Private employment reports showed 71,321 job cuts in November, providing limited optimism. Redfin data also indicated that 15% of home purchase agreements were canceled in October. High costs and uncertainty are increasing risk aversion among investors.

Leverage and options markets affect price

Bitcoin failed to reach $92,250 on Monday, dropping $2,650. This pullback accelerated after $92 million in leveraged BTC futures were liquidated. Put option premiums on Deribit reached 13%. Investors in China are exiting the crypto market as stablecoins trade below the official USD rate. This signals short-term downside risk.

• Key Takeaways:

• Slow spot ETF inflows limit upward momentum

• U.S. employment and housing data drive market confidence

• Leveraged trades amplify Bitcoin price movements

• Chinese investors exiting add pressure on prices

• Fed decisions may increase short-term volatility

Bitcoin’s short-term path depends on clearer U.S. economic data and housing conditions. Fed decisions may cause temporary swings. Long-term recovery requires improving economic outlook. Investors watch the $85,000–$90,000 range as critical support and maintain cautious positions.

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According to Powell, data prior to the U.S. government shutdown suggested that economic growth was stronger than expected, with the economy returning to September levels. However, tariffs continue to increase price pressures, complicating the fight against inflation.

“The Fed must move carefully. Acting too quickly could leave the inflation battle unfinished,” Powell warned. He added that ending balance sheet expansion earlier would have made little difference, noting that balance sheet management remains a key tool of monetary policy.

Fed Nearing End of Balance Sheet Reduction

Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve could end its balance sheet reduction process in the coming months. This development comes amid signs of mild tightening in money markets. “We’re not far from our target, but there’s still some way to go,” he said, stressing that reserves remain abundant.

The Fed Chair also cautioned that a further decline in job openings could push unemployment higher. Research shows that the effects of monetary policy on employment and inflation take longer to materialize, making sudden policy shifts risky.

Powell warned that the slow pass-through of tariffs could pose a risk of persistent inflation, while declining to comment on gold or Bitcoin prices. “Inflation is driven by fundamental supply and demand factors,” he said, reaffirming the Fed’s data-dependent policy approach.

Powell’s remarks suggest that the Fed will remain data-driven and cautious in the months ahead. Markets are closely watching new signals regarding interest rates, balance sheet policy, and the inflation outlook.

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A Weakening Dollar Could Open the Door for Bitcoin Buyers

According to QCP Capital’s latest report, while the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing, it still maintains resilience. Core inflation remains near 3%, and the potential for a gradual shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance is emerging.

The firm noted that the latest market correction was less about policy changes and more about portfolio repositioning. Rising long-term bond yields and a brief strengthening of the dollar prompted profit-taking, particularly in technology and AI-related stocks.

Gold Hits Record Highs — What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

Gold recently crossed the $4,000 per ounce threshold, highlighting a renewed safe-haven demand. QCP Capital emphasized that “a more flexible, lower interest rate stance from the Fed could create a ‘Goldilocks’ environment for both gold and Bitcoin.”

Asian Markets Provide Supportive Liquidity

In Asia, markets reacted positively to Japan’s election results, with the Nikkei index climbing higher. A weakening yen combined with expansionary fiscal policies boosted regional risk appetite. QCP pointed out that this could also translate into additional liquidity for crypto markets during Asian trading hours.

Long-Term Trend Favors Risk Assets

The report concluded that periods of dollar weakness should be seen as potential buying opportunities for Bitcoin. While short-term volatility may persist due to limited data availability and geopolitical risks, QCP stressed that the broader, long-term trajectory still leans in favor of risk assets — with Bitcoin at the forefront.

*This content does not contain investment advice.

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Trump said China, India, and Brazil are challenging the U.S. with their tariffs. He also noted that the stock market’s recent decline is due to uncertainty. Moreover, he highlighted the urgent need for a decision on tariffs. If the appeal is rejected, he would have to roll back tariffs. 

Tariff Appeal and Economic Impact 

Trump mentioned an “emergency meeting” scheduled for tomorrow regarding the tariff decision. He stressed that the country cannot face serious issues without tariffs. The president warned that losing the appeal would be economically catastrophic. He added that the stock market needs tariffs and that they are essential. 

Trump also stated that a significant interest rate cut is necessary. This move, he said, could stabilize the economy. He concluded that a negative ruling from the appeal court would place a heavy financial burden on the nation. 

International Relations and President’s Remarks 

Trump expressed disappointment regarding Russia’s President Putin. On the other hand, he is not worried about relations with China or Russia. “They would never use their military against us,” he said. Additionally, he denied all rumors about his health circulating in the media. 

Overall, Trump’s statements highlight critical economic and trade concerns. The upcoming emergency meeting and tariff decisions will have major implications for investors and the broader U.S. economy. 

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Clear Signs of Economic Slowdown

In his remarks, Kashkari clearly stated that the economy is slowing. On the other hand, he noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation is still not fully understood. Despite this uncertainty, he said it may still be appropriate to begin adjusting the policy rate in the short term.

Two Rate Cuts Still Possible This Year

Kashkari stated that two rate cuts by the end of 2025 are still a valid scenario. However, there is an important condition here: if inflation starts to rise due to tariffs, the Fed may halt these cuts or even shift to a rate hike if necessary.

“Reversing Course May Be Better Than Waiting”

Kashkari emphasized that the time may have come to reverse course in rate policy, stating, “Reversing course may be better than waiting.” This message supports expectations that the Fed could move toward a monetary easing path in the fall.

Tariffs and Inflation Uncertain, But the Data is Clear

Kashkari said, “We don’t yet know what will happen with inflation, but the data we have on the slowdown is quite clear.” This indicates that the Fed may act based on growth data, even in the face of a murky inflation outlook.

Polymarket Data: Strong Rate Cuts Expectations

Meanwhile, with only 41 days left until the FOMC meeting on September 17, 2025, market expectations are already forming. According to Polymarket data:

• A 7% chance of a 50 basis point cut is expected,

• A 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut is projected,

• A 19% likelihood suggests no change in rates.

These figures indicate that markets are largely positioning toward a rate cut scenario.

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These tariffs will directly impact many trade partners. For instance, an agreement with the European Union sets a 15% tariff on cars and parts, down from the previous 27.5%. Meanwhile, tariffs up to 25% will apply to products from Canada and Mexico. Trump will also impose a 25% tariff on imports from India, aiming to improve trade balance. Negotiations with India have finalized this rate. Trump announced penalties will apply to India for continuing purchases from Russia. Brazil faces a 50% tariff rate. 

Global Trade and Tariff Implications 

Starting August 1, these tariffs will cause significant changes in global trade dynamics. Trade negotiations continue, but agreements remain pending with some countries. Talks with South Korea, India, and Brazil are ongoing. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said the tariffs won’t completely disrupt trade relations. Officials also highlighted that some tariffs may be temporary. 

Sector-specific tariffs of 15-20% will affect strategic industries such as copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. These measures focus on boosting domestic production. Overall, August 1, 2025 marks a pivotal moment in U.S. trade policy. America’s economic independence will grow while new global trade dynamics emerge.

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U.S. Jobless Claims Below Expectations

Economists were expecting a slight softening in the labor market. However, the announced figure suggests that the U.S. employment market remains resilient. This slight decrease in claims indicates that employment continues to show strength.

A jobless claims figure that falls below expectations is generally interpreted as a positive sign for economic growth. Lower claims suggest that companies are opting to retain workers rather than reduce their workforce.

What Does This Mean for Fed Policy?

Such data continues to play a role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Especially in the ongoing battle against inflation, a strong labor market could prompt the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. However, the stability in employment also keeps hopes of a “soft landing” for the economy alive.

How Did the Markets React?

The lower-than-expected jobless claims had a modestly positive impact on the U.S. dollar, while stock markets and crypto investors closely monitor such data to assess the Fed’s stance. A low jobless figure can send mixed signals for risk assets, as it may imply that interest rates will stay elevated longer.

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U.S. Jobless Claims and PPI to Be Announced!

At 15:30, two important data points will be released simultaneously:

Jobless Claims

• Expectation: 229K

• Previous: 228K
  This data provides an important indicator of how strong or weak the labor market is. A figure below expectations would signal strength in the employment market, while a higher number could raise recession concerns.

Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Expectation: 0.2%

• Previous: -0.4%
  This data, which shows the trend of inflation on the producer side, stands out as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. If the PPI exceeds expectations, it could bring back the possibility of the Fed tightening its interest rate policies.

At 15:40, attention will turn to the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Statements such as “we will be patient” or “we will act based on data” could cause significant market volatility.

What Happens If the Data Meets or Misses Expectations?

If the data aligns with or exceeds expectations, short-term optimism may be seen in the markets. In this scenario, the dollar may strengthen, and stock markets may move upward, but cryptocurrencies could come under pressure.

If the data falls short of expectations, especially if PPI remains in negative territory, expectations that the Fed may begin rate cuts earlier could come to the forefront. This could create a positive environment for assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve high risk, and it is important to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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Crypto markets are easily influenced by macroeconomic events. Today, Coinbase’s earnings report and U.S. Unemployment Claims data will be released. How might these two events impact Bitcoin and altcoin prices? 

Coinbase Earnings Report: How Is the Crypto Exchange Performing? 

Coinbase is one of the largest crypto exchanges in the U.S. Its earnings report reveals the company’s revenue and trading volume. According to Reuters, Coinbase shares dropped by 7.7% in April 2025. This reflects the volatility in the crypto market. Investors will focus on revenue from transaction fees in the report. Additionally, the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the market is a point of curiosity. A strong Coinbase report could push crypto prices upward. However, weak results may increase selling pressure. As a result, volatility is expected during the announcement. 

Unemployment Claims: An Indicator of Economic Health 

U.S. Unemployment Claims provide insight into economic health. According to posts on the X platform, the expectation is 232K, with the previous figure at 241K. If claims come in lower than expected, it signals a strong labor market. Analysts note that positive labor market data has historically supported Bitcoin prices. Conversely, higher-than-expected claims could create economic uncertainty, potentially leading to downward pressure on the crypto market. Investors will interpret this data in the context of the Fed’s interest rate policies. 

What Does This Mean for the Crypto Market? 

Both data points could directly impact the crypto market. A strong Coinbase performance may boost confidence. Similarly, low unemployment claims could increase demand for riskier assets. However, unexpected negative outcomes could trigger a sell-off. 

The crypto market carries high risk; please conduct your own research before investing. 

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U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Falls Short of Expectations

One of the key indicators of the U.S. private sector labor market, the ADP Non-Farm Employment data, came in at 62,000 for April. Market expectations were around 114,000, while the previous figure stood at 147,000. This result significantly missed both the forecast and the prior month’s data.

Although the ADP report is considered a leading indicator for the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)—usually released on the first Friday of each month—its market impact can be limited. Still, it provides important clues about potential slowdowns in the labor market.

In both crypto and traditional markets, such macroeconomic data is closely monitored as it may influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. A weaker-than-expected ADP figure could be interpreted as a sign of cooling in the labor market, possibly increasing the likelihood of a more dovish Fed stance in the near future.

Further insights into the labor market’s overall health will come with the upcoming NFP and unemployment rate releases in the days ahead.

U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts

Another critical data point released on the same day was the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Q1 2025, which came in at -0.3%. The market had anticipated a 0.2% increase, while the previous quarter’s growth stood at 2.4%.

This figure indicates a technical contraction in the U.S. economy. Negative GDP growth could signal a decline in consumer spending or investment activity. Following a strong previous quarter, this sharp downturn highlights a notable slowdown in economic activity.

Such weakness in macroeconomic indicators could play a pivotal role in shaping upcoming monetary policy decisions.

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