u.s. inflation Archives - Coin Engineer

Fed Official Waller Signals Rate Cut: “Better to Start Early”

Emre Yumlu — Fri, 20 Jun 2025 14:30:48 +0000

Christopher Waller, one of the key figures shaping the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), delivered critical messages to the markets.

FED Is Considering a Rate Cut!

Commenting on the potential timing of interest rate cuts, Waller drew attention with his statement: “The rate cut process could begin as early as July.”

Waller noted that they had been expecting a sudden surge in inflation over the past six months, but such a shock has not materialized. He emphasized that monetary policy remains in a “restrictive” zone. Therefore, he stated that starting the process early would provide flexibility to pause if necessary.

How Will Tariffs Impact Inflation?

Waller also touched on the topic of tariffs, which has recently come back into focus. He argued that the planned 10% additional tariffs on imported goods would not place significant pressure on overall inflation.

“We don’t see second-round inflation effects from tariffs. It’s important for the Fed to look through these temporary impacts rather than respond directly to such price increases,” said Waller, suggesting that price hikes stemming from global trade policies would have limited effects.

Is a Rate Cut on the Way?

Waller’s remarks indicate that the Fed has gained more flexibility in terms of a possible rate cut. While September is being discussed as a potential date for a cut in the markets, a move in July is now a strong possibility.

According to experts, Waller’s statements show that an optimistic tone is beginning to prevail within the Fed. In particular, the continued stability in core inflation may support the Fed taking action without further delay.

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Tensions Rise Ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision: Trump Slams Powell Again!

Emre Yumlu — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 14:30:44 +0000

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. At a time when expectations for a rate cut are growing, Trump’s statements have caught the attention of the markets. So, what will the Fed’s interest rate decision be?

In his recent remarks targeting Powell, Trump said:

“Powell is not a smart person. The Fed should cut interest rates.”
“There probably won’t be a rate cut decision today.”
“Interest rates should be at least two and a half points lower right now.”
“Powell is doing a poor job.”
“Can I appoint myself to the Fed? I’d do a much better job.”

Trump’s comments once again highlight the increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of a potential interest rate decision.

Trump vs. the Fed: Tensions Continue to Escalate

Trump argued that lowering interest rates would reduce borrowing costs and accused Powell of failing in his role. While Trump has previously criticized Powell on multiple occasions, this time he took it a step further by asking, “Can I make myself Fed Chair?” — a statement that drew widespread attention.

Markets Remain Calm But On Edge Ahead of Fed Decision

Despite Trump’s sharp tone, the markets have remained relatively calm for now. However, such statements continue to raise questions among investors about the independence of the Fed. With the interest rate decision expected today, all eyes are once again on Powell.

Trump’s latest remarks clearly signal the mounting political pressure on the Fed. While markets have not reacted strongly yet, these statements could influence the central bank’s future interest rate policies.

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US Jobless Claims Announced!

Emre Yumlu — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 12:52:32 +0000

US jobless claims were reported at 245,000. Market expectations were around 246,000, while claims in the previous week were recorded at 250,000.

The data came in slightly below expectations, indicating that the US labor market continues to show strength. This marks the second consecutive week of declining jobless claims.

Why Are US Jobless Claims Important?

This weekly data, which shows the number of individuals applying for unemployment insurance for the first time, is considered an important indicator of the health of the labor market. A decrease in claims suggests fewer layoffs and a resilient employment environment.

With the release of this week’s data:

Expectations: 246K
Previous Week: 250K
Actual: 245K

What Do the Fed and Markets Think?

Inflation data released in May has shifted investors’ focus back to the possibility of a rate cut expected in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 0.1% on a monthly basis, falling short of expectations, while annual inflation came in at 2.4%, also below economists’ forecast of 2.5%. This soft inflation reading has strengthened expectations that the Fed may begin cutting interest rates in the second half of the year.

According to CME Group data, the probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 76%.

You May Be Interested: When Will the FED Cut Interest Rates? Pressure on Powell is Increasing!

However, this process is not shaped solely by economic indicators. President Donald Trump has escalated his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump, calling Powell a “numbskull,” argued that a 2-point rate cut would save the US economy $600 billion. He also hinted that he might intervene if necessary. Several members of his administration echoed these sentiments—both the Secretary of Commerce and the Vice President voiced support for Trump’s position, stating that “the Fed must cut rates.”

So far, markets have remained calm in response to these statements. However, the growing political pressure is being closely watched in terms of the Fed’s independence and the decisions Powell will make in the coming period.

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U.S. Non-Farm Employment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Data Released!

Emre Yumlu — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 12:45:39 +0000

The much-anticipated U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment and GDP figures have been released. What were the results, and did they meet expectations? Let’s take a closer look.

U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Falls Short of Expectations

One of the key indicators of the U.S. private sector labor market, the ADP Non-Farm Employment data, came in at 62,000 for April. Market expectations were around 114,000, while the previous figure stood at 147,000. This result significantly missed both the forecast and the prior month’s data.

Although the ADP report is considered a leading indicator for the official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)—usually released on the first Friday of each month—its market impact can be limited. Still, it provides important clues about potential slowdowns in the labor market.

In both crypto and traditional markets, such macroeconomic data is closely monitored as it may influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. A weaker-than-expected ADP figure could be interpreted as a sign of cooling in the labor market, possibly increasing the likelihood of a more dovish Fed stance in the near future.

Further insights into the labor market’s overall health will come with the upcoming NFP and unemployment rate releases in the days ahead.

U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts

Another critical data point released on the same day was the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Q1 2025, which came in at -0.3%. The market had anticipated a 0.2% increase, while the previous quarter’s growth stood at 2.4%.

This figure indicates a technical contraction in the U.S. economy. Negative GDP growth could signal a decline in consumer spending or investment activity. Following a strong previous quarter, this sharp downturn highlights a notable slowdown in economic activity.

Such weakness in macroeconomic indicators could play a pivotal role in shaping upcoming monetary policy decisions.

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US Unemployment Claims Announced!

Emre Yumlu — Thu, 24 Apr 2025 12:43:12 +0000

Unemployment Claims data, one of the critical indicators of the US economy, has been announced.

US Unemployment Claims Announced! Were Expectations Met?

US jobless claims came in line with expectations at 222,000. Although the data is technically negative as it is slightly higher than the previous data, the market impact may be neutral as it came in line with expectations and the increase was very limited.

The fact that jobless claims met expectations indicates that there is currently no pressure forcing the Fed to proceed with an aggressive rate cut.

How Will the Markets React?

From an investor’s perspective, data coming in line with expectations may limit extreme volatility in both crypto and traditional markets. Especially in a period where rate cut expectations have been repriced and markets have positioned accordingly, balanced signals like this from the labor market may prevent overreactions. This can be a stabilizing development in the short term for both risk assets and interest rate-sensitive instruments.

Upcoming labor market data such as average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, and inflation figures will provide much clearer signals regarding the Fed’s actions in the summer months. In particular, rate cut expectations for June and July could be reshaped in light of these figures. Therefore, following today’s data, investors are now turning their attention to the critical macroeconomic data to be released in the coming weeks.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve high risk, and it is important that you conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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