According to the Dow Jones consensus, approximately 53,000 new jobs are expected in the public and private sectors in September. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to increase by 0.3% monthly and 3.7% annually.

Analysts suggest that if the NFP figure comes in below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, it would confirm a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and could reignite expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. In this scenario, the USD could come under selling pressure, and the EUR/USD pair may rise toward the 1.1700 level. Conversely, if employment exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, EUR/USD could fall below 1.1400. Technical indicators also support the downside potential, with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1574 and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading below the midpoint.

Report Features and Background

The September report will be the first official employment release following the prolonged federal government shutdown, ending the data blackout. Although retrospective, it provides crucial insights for investors and Fed officials who relied on alternative private data sources during the shutdown period in Washington D.C.

The BLS will not release a separate October employment report; it will be combined with the November report and published in December. Therefore, the September data will offer only limited visibility into the current state of the labor market. Revisions to July and August data will also be included in the report, potentially increasing its market impact.

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, stated, “The labor market, like the economy, is holding on. The report indicates a slightly brighter picture than expected, but there is nothing to boast about.”

Possible Scenarios and Market Impact

1. NFP Exceeds Expectations
Example: Employment rises to 70,000, above the 50,000 forecast.

• USD: Strengthens.

• Stocks: May face short-term pressure.

• Gold and cryptocurrencies: Could be negatively affected.

• Reason: Strong employment increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, limiting risk appetite.

2. NFP Falls Short of Expectations
Example: Employment increases only 20,000, below the 50,000 forecast.

• USD: Weakens.

• Equities and cryptocurrencies: May rise.

• Gold and safe-haven assets: Could gain value.

• Reason: Weak employment reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike, which markets may interpret positively.

3. Unemployment Rate Falls Below Expectations
Example: Reported at 4.1% instead of 4.3%.

• USD: Strengthens.

• Stocks: May face pressure.

• Gold and cryptocurrencies: Could be negatively affected.

• Reason: A stronger labor force increases the likelihood of Fed maintaining a tight monetary policy.

4. Unemployment Rate Exceeds Expectations
Example: Reported at 4.5% instead of 4.3%.

• USD: Weakens.

• Stocks and cryptocurrencies: May rise.

• Economic growth concerns: May increase.

• Reason: Higher unemployment reinforces expectations for Fed policy easing.

Historical Data and Additional Context

• August 2025: Employment +22,000, Unemployment 4.3%

• September 2025 forecast: Employment ~50,000, Unemployment 4.3%

• Goldman Sachs forecast: September +80,000, October -50,000

• Private data indicators: ADP employment data, Challenger Gray & Christmas layoff reports, and other private metrics provide additional context for investors interpreting the report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that markets are navigating based on available data, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller stressed that policymakers are not “flying blind” despite potential data gaps.

Summary

September’s Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data may trigger short-term volatility for investors but remain one of the most critical indicators for policymakers and market analysts this year. Whether the figures exceed or fall short of expectations, they could cause immediate, noticeable movements in the USD, equities, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. Revisions and subsequent data releases will also provide significant signals for the Fed’s December meeting and overall market direction.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post US Labor Market Update: NFP & Unemployment appeared first on Coin Engineer.

US Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Below Expectations at 73K

The US Non-Farm Payrolls data came in at 73,000. This figure is well below the market expectation of 106,000. Last month’s figure was recorded at 147,000. Signs of a slowdown in the labor market have become more evident with this data.

Unemployment Rate Remained Stable

The US Unemployment Rate was announced at 4.2%, in line with expectations. Having been at 4.1% in the previous month, the unemployment rate showed a slight increase to 4.2% this month. This rate may align with the Federal Reserve’s expectation of a cooling labor market.

How Will Markets React?

The weaker-than-expected employment data could increase pressure on the Fed’s interest rate policy. Risk assets such as Bitcoin, altcoins, and the general crypto market may be affected by such economic indicators. If the Fed adopts a more cautious stance and moves toward potential rate cuts, long-biased movements could be seen in the markets.

This content is not intended as investment advice. Markets carry high risks, and it is important to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Data Announced! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Summary: 

• Expected: 227K 
  Previous: 221K 
  Actual: 217K

Why This Data Matters 

Weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicate the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data provides direct insight into short-term labor market dynamics. A decrease in claims signals fewer layoffs and suggests labor market stability. In a period marked by high inflation and tight monetary policies, such data is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s decisions. 

Historical Comparison: General Trend in Jobless Claims 

U.S. jobless claims have fluctuated recently, showing a limited upward trend overall. Claims rose to 233,000 at the end of June, then dropped again to 227,000 by mid-July. 

• In the second half of 2024, claims generally fluctuated between 220,000 and 240,000. These levels are still considered low historically. For example: 
• During the 2020 pandemic, weekly claims soared to several million. 
• In mid-2022, weekly claims averaged around 250,000–270,000. 
• In 2023, these numbers fell to around 200,000–230,000. 

This year’s levels indicate that the U.S. labor market continues to largely sustain its post-pandemic recovery, with no widespread layoffs.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates. 

The post U.S. Jobless Claims Announced! Here Are All the Details! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Following the release of these economic figures, there was notable movement in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp rise, jumping from $89,000 to $90,200. This sudden surge is linked to investors reassessing the economic data and viewing Bitcoin as a potential store of value. The release of these figures has led to an increase in risk appetite in the markets, and Bitcoin quickly rebounded.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

This surge in Bitcoin is indicative of the ongoing “safe haven” demand among investors and showcases how the crypto market reacts to traditional financial data. However, the break of the $90,200 level could trigger further bullish momentum, but there may also be selling pressure at these levels.

With volatility still prevailing in the markets, investors should closely monitor Bitcoin’s new support and resistance levels. The question remains whether Bitcoin will hold above these levels or experience further fluctuations in the coming days.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post U.S. Employment Data Released! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

The lower-than-expected unemployment claims indicate that the U.S. labor market is continuing to improve, which could lead to short-term bullish movements in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto investors may expect that economic stability will boost risk appetite and drive more interest in cryptocurrencies.

In the crypto market, the positive impact of the unemployment claims could result in upward price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, investors should remain cautious, as cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and subject to significant fluctuations.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post U.S. Unemployment Claims Released! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Non-Farm Payrolls Fell Short of Expectations

The Non-Farm Payrolls data in the US was reported at 143K, significantly below the economists’ forecast of 169K. This may indicate a slowdown in the labor market.

Unemployment Rate Declined

The US Unemployment Rate came in at 4.0%, compared to the expected 4.1%. The lower-than-expected unemployment rate suggests a resilient labor market.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Average Hourly Earnings Increased

Workers’ Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.5%, exceeding the 0.3% expectation. This increase in wages could intensify inflationary pressures and impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

How Will Markets React?

• Bitcoin and crypto markets may experience volatility following the employment data.
• Lower job growth signals economic cooling, while rising wages bring inflation risks into focus.
• These figures are crucial for the FED’s rate decision in the coming months.

Market fluctuations will be closely monitored in the days ahead.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post US Data Announced! Will Interest Rate Fall? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

On Tuesday, all eyes will be on Turkey’s CPI (Inflation Rate) report, set to release at 10:00 AM. The expectation is 46.6%, compared to the previous rate of 48.58%. Later in the evening, SEC Chair Gensler‘s address may offer new signals regarding crypto regulations.

Wednesday brings major launches in the crypto sphere. Floki is set to unveil its new project, MONKY, while Ripple will launch its much-anticipated RLUSD stablecoin. These developments are expected to ripple through the crypto markets. Later in the evening, at 9:45 PM, FED Chair Jerome Powell will deliver an important speech, followed by the release of the U.S. Beige Book at 10:00 PM, providing critical insights into the economic outlook.

On Thursday, Gala Film will roll out its new token, $FILM, which could drive more interest in the Gala ecosystem.

Friday marks a pivotal day for financial markets. At 4:30 PM, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data will be revealed. Expectations are at 202,000, up from the previous 12,000 figure. Simultaneously, the U.S. Unemployment Rate will be announced, with a forecast of 4.2%, compared to the prior 4.1%.

This week, key events like the Ripple stablecoin launch, SEC and FED Chair speeches, and U.S. employment data could shape the direction of both crypto and financial markets.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Major Events to Watch in Crypto and Finance This Week! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Mericle’s comments follow the release of the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which came in at 2.5% year-over-year, aligning with expectations. This data point has reignited speculation about whether the Fed might accelerate its timeline for interest rate cuts.

When asked about the likelihood of a rate cut in September, Mericle indicated sympathy for the idea but expressed some doubt. He suggested that the Fed might hint at an upcoming rate cut in its next meeting but cautioned that it was unlikely to be explicitly planned for September.

Mericle believes the Fed will wait until the release of July inflation data before making a definitive decision. If the data is deemed acceptable, he expects the Fed to signal a rate cut in September.

Despite the volatility in inflation data this year, Mericle remains confident in the Fed’s inflation strategy. He pointed to the rebalancing of the labor market and the normalization of inflation expectations since late last year.

Mericle also emphasized the Fed’s dual mandate and the recent shift in focus towards the Fed due to softer labor market data. While characterizing the labor market data as mixed, he noted the 2.8% GDP growth in the last quarter and the continued strong job gains.

Looking ahead, Mericle anticipates a need for approximately 150,000 jobs per month to stabilize the unemployment rate. He noted the mixed signals and suggested that the upcoming jobs report would likely receive more attention than usual due to the upward trend in the unemployment rate.

The post Goldman Sachs Sees Potential for Fed Rate Cuts, But Cautions on Timing appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Despite the revisions for previous months, economist Joe Brusuelas noted that the three-month average job gain stood at a strong 244,000, with a six-month average of 228,000.

However, the unemployment rate for February was slightly higher than anticipated, reaching 3.9% compared to the expected 3.7% and January’s 3.7%.

Following the report, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a slight increase to $67,650. Meanwhile, traditional markets showed minimal reaction, with U.S. equity futures, bond yields, and the dollar experiencing modest declines.

Heading into 2024, market expectations were centered around potential economic slowdowns and inflation concerns leading to aggressive rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, the economy has displayed resilience, and inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Consequently, expectations for the first Fed easing have shifted from March to June or later. Market participants have adjusted their expectations accordingly, now pricing in only about 75 basis points in rate cuts for the year, compared to roughly 150 basis points just a few weeks ago.

Despite the disappointment regarding easier Fed policy, asset markets have not shown any signs of difficulty. Major U.S. stock averages and the price of gold are at or near all-time highs. Similarly, Bitcoin has reached new records this year, with significant demand from spot ETFs overshadowing concerns about the economy or interest rates.

In terms of other report details, average hourly earnings in February saw a modest increase of 0.1%, falling short of the expected 0.3% and signaling a slowdown from January’s 0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings rose by 4.3%, slightly below the expected 4.4% and January’s 4.4%.

The post U.S. Adds 275K Jobs in February; Unemployment Rate is 3.9% appeared first on Coin Engineer.