Economic Outlook and Inflation Expectations

The FOMC noted that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Although employment growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remained low through September. Inflation has risen this year and remains somewhat elevated. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to maximum employment and a long-term 2% inflation target.

Fed policymakers project core PCE inflation at 2.5% and overall PCE at 2.4% by the end of 2026, down from previous forecasts of 2.6% in both categories. Unemployment is projected at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026. According to the median projection, interest rates are expected to reach 3.1% by the end of 2028.

Securities and Reserves

The FOMC decided to end the reduction of total securities holdings as of December 1. Reserve balances are assessed to be ample, and the Fed indicated it may begin purchasing shorter-term Treasury securities if needed to maintain sufficient reserves. The Committee will continue monitoring incoming data to evaluate the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

Voting Results

The policy decision passed with a 9-3 vote. Schmid and Goolsbee voted to keep rates unchanged, while Miran favored a half-point rate cut. Additionally, four Fed officials forecast an additional two-quarter-point rate cut for 2026.

Bitcoin and U.S. Stock Market Reaction

Following the decision, Bitcoin briefly fell below $92,000 but quickly recovered above $93,000. U.S. stock indices moved higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.62%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq up 0.03%. Investors are closely watching the Fed’s rate cut and Treasury purchases.

• The Fed will purchase $40 billion in Treasury securities over the next 30 days

• Treasury purchases will begin on December 12

• Policy decision passed with a 9-3 vote

• Schmid and Goolsbee voted to keep rates unchanged

• Miran supported a half-point rate cut

• Four Fed officials forecast two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026

• Reduction of securities holdings ended on December 1

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What Does the Data Suggest?

Such data is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. A lower-than-expected figure may imply that the economy is still resilient, and inflationary pressures could persist. This could lead the Fed to delay any rate cuts.

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Potential Impact on the Crypto Market

The crypto market, especially Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins, is sensitive to macroeconomic developments. Delayed rate cuts may create short-term downside pressure on crypto assets as investors move cautiously in risk markets.

However, in the long run, a stable job market may signal a healthier global economy, which could boost investor confidence in digital assets.

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The lower-than-expected unemployment claims indicate that the U.S. labor market is continuing to improve, which could lead to short-term bullish movements in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Crypto investors may expect that economic stability will boost risk appetite and drive more interest in cryptocurrencies.

In the crypto market, the positive impact of the unemployment claims could result in upward price movements in Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, investors should remain cautious, as cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and subject to significant fluctuations.

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