Bessent emphasized that they are currently working on an agreement that encompasses a very solid framework. He also mentioned that significant progress has been made during multiple negotiations held in Kuala Lumpur, and that the necessary conditions for the leaders to sit at the table are being established.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump is expected to meet with China President Xi Jinping in the coming days. Trump stated that he believes an agreement will be signed during this meeting. The signing of such a deal is expected to bring some relief to the markets.

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What Will Be Discussed During the Meeting?

It is clear that many issues will be addressed in the talks, but some topics require particular attention and decisive actions. Examples include:

• Tariffs
• Rare Earth Minerals
• Agricultural Imports
• Fentanyl Production

According to sources such as Reuters and SCMP, the outcome of this agreement is expected to ease the pressure on global markets. The ongoing trade tension seems to be gradually giving way to stability. It appears that a potential settlement is not far off. Global markets are responding positively to the expectations surrounding the deal; however, experts emphasize that the true picture will only emerge after the final text of the agreement is revealed.

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Taking this dynamic into account, Trump warned, “If China doesn’t trade with us, they will be in big trouble.” This statement carries a strong diplomatic message — an attempt to signal that the U.S. can build alternative markets to counter China’s influence.

Tariff Pressure and Reciprocal Moves

Things are far from simple on the economic front. Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 in response to China’s export restrictions on rare earth elements. China, on the other hand, has taken a firm stance and is preparing countermeasures.

This situation creates a tension line between Trump’s strategy of “using China’s fear to bring them to the table” and China’s resistance moves. Yet Trump remains confident, saying, “China respects us right now.” Naturally, such tariffs will impact not only China’s economy but also global companies. A Reuters analysis revealed that global companies are facing costs exceeding $35 billion due to these tariffs. In other words, aggressive economic pressure mechanisms are pushing trade relations into a fragile balance.

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China Visit Planned for 2026

Perhaps the most notable announcement from Trump was that he had been invited to China and plans to visit in early 2026. The visit is reportedly aimed at achieving a “fair trade deal” with Xi Jinping. This trip is not just a symbolic diplomatic step but also carries concrete expectations. Trump aims to establish an environment of compromise that could weaken China’s control over rare earth resources and lead to the gradual withdrawal of tariffs on Chinese goods. A potential deal could boost trade volumes for both nations, but it would need to be managed with a “win-win” approach.

In recent days, Trump also made striking comments about Taiwan, saying he does not believe China intends to invade the island. However, this issue remains one of the most sensitive topics overshadowing bilateral relations.

While China views Taiwan as part of its “motherland,” the U.S. and some allies support Taiwan’s democratic government. In this scenario, trade negotiations and security concerns become deeply intertwined. Trump prefers to emphasize U.S. military superiority, stating, “No one can compete with us in this regard.” Yet, even though he claims there will be no invasion, Taiwan will inevitably remain on the discussion table between the two powers.

Possible Developments and Risks

Positive Scenario: A concrete agreement could be signed between Trump and Xi. China may show flexibility regarding rare earth export restrictions, while the U.S. could gradually lift tariffs. This would ease pressure on global supply chains and provide some relief for corporations.

Risky Scenario: If China fails to meet Trump’s expectations, the 100% tariffs will take effect, further escalating tensions. Meanwhile, if the Taiwan issue turns into a crisis, diplomatic tensions could rise sharply — affecting not only the U.S. and China but also the entire Asia-Pacific region.

World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has called for de-escalation between the U.S. and China, warning that a long-term “decoupling” between the two economies would harm global growth. This situation concerns not only Trump’s strategy but also the broader stability of the global economic system.

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Rekt Capital’s Bullish Prediction 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital paints an optimistic picture for the altcoin market. If the total market cap closes above $250 billion, it could reach $315 billion. This close could form a bottom for coins. Rekt Capital highlights that the correction is shallower than previous -69% and -85% declines. Furthermore, the $425 billion resistance level is weakening. Breaking this level could accelerate the rally. 

Bitcoin Dominance Declines 

Analyst Merlijn The Trader evaluates altcoin season expectations. A noticeable decline in Bitcoin dominance is observed, indicating capital shifting to altcoins. However, the analyst emphasizes that timing is critical. He warns investors against the risks of early rotation or buying at the peak. The right move could maximize gains. 

Willy Woo’s Insights 

On-chain analyst Willy Woo offers a different perspective. He predicts the altcoin market cap will reach $10.5 trillion by 2030. However, he claims Bitcoin dominance will exceed 90%. According to Woo, Bitcoin’s market cap will surpass $100 trillion. He notes that institutional players are leaning toward Bitcoin. For instance, companies like Metaplanet are rapidly increasing their Bitcoin reserves. Woo believes crypto venture capital will decline in favor of Bitcoin.

Ever wondered what the end game is for altcoins vs Bitcoin?

Altcoins: $10.5T
BTC: >$100T

Place your bets accordingly. Dominance will go >90%

Crypto VCs will be a thing of the past.

Buy BTC, invest in BTC infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/yuImgYx1Ep

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 12, 2025

The altcoin season presents opportunities for investors. Led by Ethereum, altcoins are rising. Bitcoin is heading toward $105,000. US-China trade deal talks are supporting this rise. Early or late moves carry risks. Investors should closely monitor market signals. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE***

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During a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok and Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun, Bessent discussed finding a new equilibrium on tariffs to encourage rather than restrict trade. The Treasury emphasized that talks focused on creating an “expanded equilibrium” to boost trade between the allies.

India Close To Securing Trade Deal With US

Meanwhile, Scott Bessent said India could be among the first countries to finalize a new trade deal with the U.S., avoiding President Trump’s suite of “reciprocal” tariffs. Speaking at the World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings, Bessent noted that India’s lower tariffs and minimal trade barriers made negotiations easier.

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U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a roadmap on Tuesday to advance trade talks, with a 26% tariff potentially coming into effect in July if no deal is reached.

Talks With China Stalled

Bessent also revealed that trade talks with China have stalled. With tariff rates on Chinese imports exceeding 145%, Bessent emphasized that both sides see these levels as unsustainable. However, he insisted that the U.S. would not unilaterally reduce duties.

Bessent added that the U.S. is continuing negotiations with 15 major trading partners aside from China, including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the United Kingdom.

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According to the Wall Street Journal, tariffs could drop from 145% to between 50% and 65%, though no official confirmation was given. White House spokesperson Kush Desai called such reports “pure speculation” unless directly announced by Trump.

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President Donald Trump said, “We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” and added that a final decision on tariffs would come within 2-3 weeks.

Global Implications

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that both countries consider the current tariff levels unsustainable, although no timeline for formal negotiations has been set.

Markets responded positively to the news, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 3%, fueled by Trump’s softened stance on the Fed and hints at a China deal.

The IMF warned, however, that such tariffs would slow economic growth and raise global debt levels.

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