Spot gold gained 0.2% to $5,202.10 per ounce. April-delivery US gold futures fell 0.6% to $5,211. Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel. Gold has gained more than 20% this year amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, reaching consecutive record levels.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its two-day meeting on March 18 but still anticipate at least two rate cuts this year.

Fluctuations in Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $88.24 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,202.52, while palladium gained 0.9% to $1,669.82.

Investors are unsettled by uncertainty over the future of the Iran conflict. The dollar has shown volatility. Global markets are pricing in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the conflict soon. At the same time, Trump continues to threaten harsh penalties against Iran over attempts to block energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Short-Term Reactions in the Currency Market

• The euro rebounded slightly by 0.18% to $1.163175 from Monday’s three-month low. The pound rose 0.25% to $1.3449.
• The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell to 98.773, near Monday’s three-month high.

Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Investors on Edge

On the 12th day of the war, the US and Israel conducted reciprocal airstrikes against Iranian forces across the Middle East. The besieged Tehran government warned that state security forces are “on alert with fingers ready” if anti-government protests flare up again.

Rapidly developing events are forcing investors to price risk carefully. Another key focus is the February US inflation data to be released on Wednesday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% for the month, while overall prices increase by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the International Energy Agency proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves. This development contributed to the drop in oil prices.

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In May, the US monthly CPI increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3%. The annual CPI was announced at 2.4%, up from the previous 2.3%.

Bitcoin is trading at $109,717.

Analysts had expected the May CPI to increase by 2.5% month-over-month and to remain at similar levels year-over-year. The previously released CPI for the prior month was 2.3%.   

We will continue to provide updates with detailed analysis and market reactions.   

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US CPI Falls Below Expectations

The annual CPI for March was announced at 2.4%. This figure came in below the market expectation of 2.5%, and also marked a decline from the previous value (2.8%). The monthly CPI was expected to rise by 0.1%, but instead came in at -0.1%. This indicates a weakening in short-term price pressures.

This slowdown in inflation could reshape expectations regarding the interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Especially the monthly figure falling into negative territory may be interpreted by markets as a dovish signal.

Unemployment Claims Remain Stable

During the same period, the unemployment claims data came in at 223K, aligning with expectations. Although the previous week’s figure was 219K, this slight increase does not indicate a major deterioration in the labor market.

The released data signal a softening in inflation while showing that stability in the labor market has been preserved. This balanced outlook may provide the Fed with flexibility in its monetary policy decisions.

This content does not constitute investment advice. The markets involve high risk and it is important that you do your own research before making any investment decisions.

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The US inflation data was below expectations and was positive in a way that would not shake the markets. It was 2.9 percent, which would not cause concerns about a possible recession in the markets. So what is the outlook for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market? How did Bitcoin react to the data?

Bitcoin After the US CPI Data

Bitcoin continues its course at $61,000 after the US data, which is one of the important developments that will affect the direction of the cryptocurrency markets. According to TradingView data, it continues the day with an increase of nearly 1 percent.

The data came in very positive for the US and cryptocurrency markets, and the positive outlook in the markets continues. It is quite possible to see an increase in Bitcoin to $62-63,000 after the data. However, Bitcoin, which closed a bearish candle at the time the data was announced, continues on its way to rise again with a green candle.

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The annual CPI data to come today was expected to be 0.31 percent last month, but it was 0.3 percent. The previous month’s data was 3.3 percent. Currently, expectations are for the data to be announced as 0.3 percent, like last month.

A Look at the Cryptocurrency Sector Ahead of the US CPI Data

Bitcoin continues the day in the $60,800 band hours before the data is announced. Bitcoin, which closed its daily close at $60,500 yesterday evening, continues its day at the 60,800 support hours before the second most important data release this week.

If the US CPI data is better than expected like yesterday’s PPI data, we may see an increase in Bitcoin to the 62-63 thousand band. Good data that comes beyond expectations or expectations will continue the positive outlook in Bitcoin.

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According to Tuesday morning’s government report, the Consumer Price Index outpaced expectations, rising to 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, exceeding both forecasts for 3.1% and January’s 3.1%. Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes food and energy costs, saw a slight decrease but still surpassed estimates, registering at 3.8% compared to expectations of 3.7% and January’s 3.9%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI climbed 0.4% in February, aligning with projections and showing an uptick from January’s 0.3%. Similarly, the core CPI increased by 0.4%, surpassing expectations of 0.3% and remaining steady compared to January’s 0.4%.

In the immediate aftermath of the data release, the price of bitcoin (BTC) experienced a marginal increase to $72,000.

At the onset of the year, market expectations implied approximately five or six rate cuts in 2024, with the anticipation of commencement as early as the Federal Reserve’s March meeting, scheduled for next week. However, robust economic growth coupled with persistently elevated inflation figures exceeding the Fed’s 2% target have dampened these rate cut prospects. Consequently, the expected timing for the inaugural rate cut has been postponed to the summer, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.

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