With geopolitical risks rising, S&P 500 losses remaining below 1% have surprised even the major bank.

Solomon noted that market reactions were calmer than expected:

“Looking at market responses… given the magnitude, I expected a stronger reaction.”

How Are Markets Reacting Now?

Energy prices are rising sharply. Expanding conflict has triggered supply concerns, pushing oil prices higher. Investors have shifted from riskier assets to safe havens, strengthening the dollar while global stock indexes saw modest declines. Losses on Wall Street were relatively mild; the S&P 500 recovered early-day losses over two sessions, ending with a drop below 1%.

Solomon emphasized that this calm reflects how geopolitical events usually do not directly affect economic growth. However, cumulative effects may emerge later:

“We haven’t seen the cumulative effect yet. There’s still a lot unknown, so predictions are difficult.”

What Is the US Economy’s Condition?

Solomon stated that strong macroeconomic fundamentals make the US economy resilient. Looser monetary policy and regulatory relief have helped support growth.

According to the CEO, the US economy may “overheat slightly” this year, potentially pushing inflation above expectations. Private credit portfolios remain healthy, but during long credit cycles, slower growth could expose weaker lending standards:

“Competition in capital allocation is putting pressure on lending standards. If a slowdown or recession occurs, weak spots will become more evident.”

Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping White-Collar Work

Goldman Sachs is using AI to automate processes. While headcount remains largely stable, productivity is increasing and employees are being redirected to different roles. Short-term effects are beginning to be felt, but no long-term labor shortage is expected.

The CEO’s remarks are critical for understanding market risk perception and workforce planning in banking. Solomon described AI’s effects as “complex,” noting that short- and medium-term impacts are not yet fully clear.

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This was not merely a technical legal dispute. It quietly redraws the boundary between presidential power and congressional authority over taxation and trade. And in Washington, those boundaries matter more than ever when trillions in global commerce are involved.

Why the Court intervened: A clear limit on executive authority

The US Constitution explicitly grants Congress the authority to impose tariffs and regulate trade. However, the Trump administration relied on IEEPA, a law designed to allow the president to respond to “unusual and extraordinary threats” during national emergencies.

The Supreme Court focused on that distinction. The justices concluded that while IEEPA allows economic regulation in emergencies, it does not explicitly authorize the president to impose sweeping global tariffs affecting nearly all imported goods.

This interpretation aligns with the Court’s broader approach in recent years. Under what is often referred to as the “major questions doctrine,” the Court has emphasized that policies with vast economic and political consequences require clear authorization from Congress, not unilateral executive action.

Which tariffs were struck down and which remain

Importantly, the ruling does not invalidate all tariffs imposed during Trump’s administration.

Two major categories were directly affected. The first involves country-based “reciprocal tariffs,” which ranged from a baseline of approximately 10% on most countries to as high as 34% on imports from China. These tariffs were central to the administration’s broader trade confrontation strategy.

The second category includes 25% tariffs imposed on certain goods from Canada, China, and Mexico. The administration justified these measures as part of efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking and related national security concerns.

However, tariffs imposed under different legal authorities, including those targeting steel and aluminum imports, remain in effect. In other words, the ruling limits the legal mechanism used, not the entire trade strategy itself.

The $130 billion question: Will businesses receive refunds?

According to US Customs and Border Protection data, the now-invalidated tariffs generated approximately $130 billion in revenue. That number alone highlights the enormous financial implications of the Court’s decision.

Businesses that paid these tariffs may now seek refunds. Importers across multiple industries—including manufacturing, consumer goods, and wholesale distribution—could potentially recover billions of dollars.

Such refund claims typically involve lengthy legal and administrative processes. But even the possibility of reimbursement has already begun influencing corporate expectations and financial planning.

Market reaction: Risk assets find support

Financial markets responded quickly to the ruling. Companies heavily dependent on imported goods saw improved outlooks as expectations shifted toward lower import costs.

Lower tariff burdens could ease pricing pressures across supply chains. That, in turn, may reduce inflationary pressure on certain goods, at least in the near term.

The US dollar, meanwhile, faces a more complex outlook. Reduced tariffs may weaken certain structural trade advantages, potentially placing modest downward pressure on the currency over time.

Risk-sensitive assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies, tend to benefit when trade tensions ease. Early market signals suggest that investors are beginning to price in a less restrictive trade environment, though uncertainty remains.

The administration may pursue alternative tariff paths

Despite the setback, the Trump administration retains options. Officials may attempt to reintroduce tariffs using alternative legal authorities that more clearly authorize such actions.

This means the broader trade conflict framework is not necessarily over. Instead, the legal pathway has narrowed, forcing future tariff decisions to rely more directly on congressional authorization or different statutory tools.

Washington’s institutional balance has shifted, at least for now. The Supreme Court has reinforced the constitutional role of Congress in shaping trade policy, while placing meaningful limits on emergency executive economic authority.

Following the decision, global trade expectations began adjusting almost immediately. Import cost projections shifted downward, while uncertainty surrounding future tariff strategies remains elevated.

Markets are recalibrating in real time. The immediate tone suggests relief, but the longer-term trajectory will depend heavily on how policymakers respond.

One thing is already clear: the Supreme Court has reshaped the legal foundation of US tariff policy. And that shift will influence executive power, global trade, and financial markets for years to come.

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Key Macroeconomic Events To Watch

The week begins with a strong focus on the US labor market. On Tuesday, the Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rate will offer fresh insight into economic momentum. A softer jobs print could reinforce expectations of looser financial conditions, while a strong outcome may revive rate-hike concerns.

On Wednesday, investors will turn their attention to the Eurozone’s annual inflation data. A reading in line with expectations would support the European Central Bank’s cautious stance. Thursday’s ECB rate decision stands out as one of the week’s most important events, even though no rate change is anticipated. Markets will closely analyze the policy statement for future guidance.

Later in the week, US inflation data takes center stage again. The annual CPI and Core PCE Price Index will serve as critical indicators for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation trend, potentially impacting bond yields and the US dollar.

Crypto Market Developments In Focus

From a digital asset perspective, one of the most closely watched events is the expected SEC meeting focused on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Any regulatory signals from this meeting could have immediate implications for market sentiment.

On Wednesday, Binance is set to delist FIS, REI, and VOXEL, a move that may increase short-term volatility for the affected tokens. The same day, Coinbase is scheduled to release an announcement, which investors are monitoring closely for strategic or product-related updates.

US housing data, including existing home sales, along with the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations and consumer sentiment surveys, may also indirectly influence crypto markets by shaping broader risk perceptions.

Weekly Highlights At A Glance

• Monday: SEC meeting on Bitcoin and crypto assets

• Tuesday: US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate

• Wednesday: Binance delistings and Eurozone CPI data

• Thursday: ECB interest rate decision and US annual CPI

• Friday: Bank of Japan rate decision and US Core PCE data

In addition, a total of five Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled throughout the week. Their remarks could trigger short-term market volatility as investors reassess interest rate expectations. Overall, the coming days are set to be decisive for both traditional markets and the crypto ecosystem, as data-driven signals guide the next market move.

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Jerome Powell’s comments suggested a more cautious stance on monetary easing. The speech also reinforced concerns about inflation risks and the slowing labor market, creating renewed volatility in digital assets.

Fed Signals a Pause as Neutral Rate Comes Into View

Powell emphasized that this year’s rate reductions have brought policy into a “range of plausible estimates of neutral.” This phrasing indicated that the Fed sees less urgency for further cuts. He said any additional moves would depend on incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. The message aligned with a growing market view that an aggressive cutting cycle is unlikely.

The Fed chair also stated that labor market conditions are cooling while inflation remains somewhat elevated. He noted that downside risks to employment have increased, yet inflation risks continue to show an upward tilt. Powell reiterated that few inflation readings have been released since the October meeting, but the overall picture has not shifted significantly, justifying the recent twenty-five basis-point cut.

Additionally, Powell confirmed that purchases of short-term Treasury securities will support effective control of the policy rate. This operational detail highlights the Fed’s effort to manage volatility in funding markets during a sensitive policy phase.

January Rate-Cut Odds Collapse During Powell’s Speech

CME FedWatch data showed a sharp drop in expectations for another rate cut at the January meeting. Markets now assign only a twenty-four percent chance of a twenty-five-basis-point cut, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged has surged to seventy-six percent. This shift reflects the Fed’s more data-dependent posture heading into 2026.

The Federal Reserve will have two critical inflation reports to evaluate before the meeting. The Producer Price Index arrives on January fourteenth, and the Consumer Price Index will be released one day earlier. Both will heavily influence rate-path projections.

Despite the Fed projecting just one rate cut for 2026, Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong sees room for a total of one hundred basis points in reductions next year. She expects weaker payroll growth and limited evidence of an inflation rebound. Powell’s term expires in May, and former President Trump is expected to appoint a chair who supports faster easing.

Key rate expectations include:

• Seventy-six percent probability of unchanged rates in January

• Twenty-four percent chance of a twenty-five-point cut

• Fed median outlook shows a single cut for 2026

• Some analysts still expect as much as one hundred basis points of easing

Bitcoin Rallies on Speech, Then Reverses as Fed Uncertainty Rises

Bitcoin spiked to ninety-four thousand dollars during Powell’s remarks, reflecting early optimism about future easing. However, the move quickly reversed, and the price slid to ninety-two thousand. This pattern mirrors the sharp swings seen after several FOMC events throughout the year.

The correction underscores how sensitive crypto markets remain to U.S. monetary policy. Traders are reassessing risk appetite as the Fed signals a pause, and macro expectations continue to dictate short-term momentum. With rate-cut uncertainty rising, digital assets may face additional volatility in the first quarter of next year.

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U.S. Debt Projected to Surpass $38 Trillion

In its outlook for 2026, BlackRock expects U.S. federal debt to exceed $38 trillion. The report underscores that this rapid expansion of government borrowing leaves the economy vulnerable to market shocks, particularly sudden spikes in long-term bond yields driven by fiscal concerns. Warnings about U.S. Treasuries—the cornerstone of traditional finance—suggest that these instruments may no longer provide the same safety they once did.

BlackRock argues that these structural pressures on the economy will push institutions toward new strategies for managing their portfolios. Higher borrowing costs and rising policy tensions are expected to weaken the resilience of the financial system and encourage investors to explore digital assets as a hedge.

Institutional Crypto Demand Continues to Rise

Among the report’s most notable themes is the accelerating institutional shift toward cryptocurrency. BlackRock’s own Bitcoin ETF now approaches $100 billion in managed assets, signaling that crypto is steadily becoming a mainstream component of institutional portfolios.

Analysts predict that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could climb above $200,000 next year. The report frames this momentum as part of a broader transition toward tokenization, which BlackRock describes as a foundational step in the evolution of global financial markets.

Tokenization and Stablecoins Reshape Market Infrastructure

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink reiterates in the report that tokenization will define the next phase of financial innovation. The firm highlights that tokenized systems can enhance transparency, efficiency, and accessibility—especially within private credit and asset management sectors.

Stablecoins also receive significant attention. According to BlackRock executives, they are no longer niche instruments but essential connectors between traditional finance and digital liquidity, serving as a bridge in the emerging digital economy.

AI Demand Creates New Revenue Streams for Bitcoin Miners

The report further notes the rising intersection between artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining. With AI models requiring increasingly powerful computing infrastructure, many publicly traded mining firms are leasing excess data center capacity to AI companies. BlackRock estimates that AI-related data centers could account for up to 20 percent of total U.S. electricity consumption by 2030, hinting at a massive long-term convergence between energy, computing, and digital assets.

What is BlackRock?

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FOMC Interest Rate Decisions and Participant Views

During the meeting, the FOMC approved a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75–4.00%. However, the minutes revealed no clear consensus among participants regarding December.

Many participants considered it appropriate to maintain interest rates for the rest of the year. On the other hand, some officials noted that a December rate cut could be reasonable. Additionally, a few participants warned that sudden revisions to artificial intelligence expectations could trigger irregular declines in stock prices.

The minutes also addressed the balance sheet reduction program. Nearly all participants supported ending the reduction of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities by December 1. This move affects a significant portion of the Fed’s roughly $6.6 trillion balance sheet.

December Rate Cut Expectations

Views on a potential December rate cut were divided:

• Many officials saw no need for an additional cut.

• Some noted that if economic outcomes aligned with expectations, a December cut could be appropriate.

• The general tendency leaned toward keeping rates unchanged.

In line with this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated in a post-meeting press conference that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” He emphasized that participants expressed “very different” views on the most appropriate policy for the December meeting.

Economic Data and Decision-Making

The minutes showed that the 44-day federal government shutdown complicated data collection and decision-making. Key labor market and inflation reports were partially delayed or unavailable during this period. As a result, FOMC decisions were based on limited available data.

Participants expressed caution due to a slowing labor market and inflation not showing signs of a sustainable return to the Fed’s 2% target. The committee generally preferred that the Fed portfolio remain balanced with Treasury securities and mortgage-backed assets.

Overall, the FOMC minutes signal market skepticism toward an additional rate cut in December and highlight clear internal differences among officials. These developments provide important guidance for investors regarding interest rate policy and the Fed’s balance sheet.

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What Is the Current Economic Outlook for the United States?

The current inflation rate in the United States is hovering around 3%. However, the FED’s target is to bring this figure down to approximately 2% annually. The interest rate applied to the U.S. dollar currently stands at around 4%. Considering the “stable but fragile” market conditions mentioned by the FED, it is expected that this rate may decline toward 3% in the near future.

The U.S. unemployment rate, which reached a historic peak of 14.9% in 2020, has since corrected to 4.3%. However, when examining the labor market over the past few months, little change is observed. Although progress continues, some FED officials consistently highlight that employment growth has slowed significantly — a trend that could lead to a higher unemployment rate.

Although the flames around tariffs seem to have cooled in recent months, tariff policies and global trade uncertainties will likely have a negative impact on inflation. This uncertainty appears poised to influence inflation in a positive direction.

You may also be interested in this article: Bitcoin’s Buy and Sell Ratio Turns Positive for the First Time: A Strong Bullish Signal

How Are the FED and Its Officials Interpreting the Situation?

• Philip Nathan Jefferson (FED Vice Chair):
  I supported the FOMC rate cut in October. Overall, the economy hasn’t changed much in recent months, but the lack of progress on inflation appears to stem from tariffs. Interest rates are close to neutral, so it’s better to move slowly.
• Michael Solomon Barr (FED Board Member):
  Progress has been made on inflation, but there’s still work to be done.
• Christopher J. Waller (FED Board Member):
  Stablecoins are not a threat to monetary policy.
• Beth M. Hammack (FED Bank President):
  I do not believe current economic data justify a rate hike. The people I’ve spoken with indicate that the labor market remains in an environment of low hiring and low layoffs. Keeping the Fed’s policy restrictive will help bring inflation down.

How Do Trump’s Trade Policies Affect the Economy?

Donald Trump referred to the ongoing legal process regarding tariffs and mentioned the need for new alternative plans. He stated that if the Supreme Court case ends unfavorably, an alternative plan is ready — though it would progress more slowly. FED officials may interpret the resulting price increases from these tariffs as renewed inflationary pressure. This is because, inevitably, import costs — and thus consumer prices — are likely to rise.

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Trump said, “Crypto reduces the pressure on the dollar,” highlighting digital assets’ critical role in the U.S. economy. He added that if managed correctly, the crypto sector could provide substantial opportunities for the country. His remarks underscored the importance of competitive strategies in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.

Framing his goal as national leadership, Trump said, “We are making the United States a Bitcoin superpower, the crypto capital of the world.” He also positioned the U.S. as “the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence,” linking the technological message to AI development.

China and Global Competition Threats

Trump warned that the U.S. risks losing crypto leadership to China and other nations if it fails to manage the sector properly:

“And don’t forget, if we don’t do crypto properly, China… China wants to do it. They’re starting it, but they want to do it. Other countries want to do it. If we don’t do it properly — it’s a big industry.”

This warning highlights competitive behavior and investor tendencies in the global crypto market. Analysts note that China aims to expand market dominance through the digital yuan and blockchain-based financial infrastructure. U.S. strategic actions directly impact investor risk perception and behavioral patterns.

Additionally, some federal steps have been taken. A “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” and a “Digital Asset Stockpile” have been established from seized digital assets, although there is no evidence of direct bitcoin purchases by the government.

Digital Asset Regulation and Future Outlook

Trump did not outline a new timeline or assign tasks to federal agencies. However, the GENIUS Act, enacted in July 2025, has advanced stablecoin regulations to make the crypto sector more transparent and secure.

Digital assets’ economic and financial role continues to grow. Investor behavior analysis, especially in BTC and stablecoin markets, highlights trends in trading volume, volatility, and liquidity. U.S. strategic moves in crypto are closely monitored by analysts, signaling both domestic and global market impacts.

Key Points of Trump’s Bitcoin Strategy

• U.S. goal to become a Bitcoin superpower

• Measures against China and international competition

• End of federal anti-crypto stance

• Establishment of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile

• Stablecoin regulations under the GENIUS Act

• Digital assets’ impact on the dollar and economy

• AI leadership message integrated with technology strategy

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On September 17, 2025, the Fed lowered its policy rate to the 4.00–4.25% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted risks to inflation and employment, stressing the central bank’s commitment to independence. 

Following the rate cut, the Dow Jones gained 0.6% to 46,018.32 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,600.35 points, while the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.3% 

Powell’s Remarks: Inflation and the Economy 

Powell stated, “We remain committed to achieving our goals for the benefit of the American people.” He noted that economic growth is showing moderate momentum, but labor market risks are rising while inflation remains elevated. 

He added that inflation has eased from its 2022 highs but tariff effects still need monitoring. On policy direction, Powell emphasized: 

“The Fed will continue to act independently. We are strongly committed to that.” 

“There was little support among members for a 50 bps cut.” 

Powell stressed the Fed can act quickly if necessary, but sees no immediate need for aggressive rate moves. According to Fed projections, inflation expectations align with the 2% target next year, and tariff-related price pressures should be temporary. The labor market slowdown and weaker demand suggest a cautious pace ahead. 

2025 Fed Rate Decision Calendar 

• September 2025: Rate cut to 4.00–4.25% 
• October 29, 2025: Next decision 
• December 10, 2025: Final decision of the year 

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25 Basis Point Rate Cut Expected 

Market pricing shows near certainty that the Fed will cut its policy rate by 25 basis points this week. Traders also expect three more cuts by year-end and at least three additional reductions in 2026. The latest CPI data came in line with forecasts, rising 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% annually. Core CPI stood at 3.1% year-over-year. 

Despite this, most economists believe a larger-scale cut is unlikely in the short term. Powell’s press conference following the decision will play a critical role in shaping expectations for the rest of the year. 

Trump–Powell Tensions 

President Trump criticized Powell as “inadequate” and called for an “immediate and significant cut.” He argued that while energy and food prices are easing, the housing market is being left behind due to high rates. Reports in U.S. media also claim Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been exploring potential successors to Powell. 

Trump’s remarks have heightened political pressure on the Fed, reigniting debates about its independence and raising new questions over the credibility of the U.S. dollar. 

The Lisa Cook Case and New Evidence 

The Trump administration has sought to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged “deceptive and potentially criminal” mortgage disclosures. Cook countered that the removal order exceeded presidential authority and violated her due process rights. On September 9, a federal court granted an injunction preventing her removal. 

The administration has appealed the decision. However, newly published documents by NBC may weaken the government’s case. A May 2021 loan summary showed Cook’s Atlanta property listed as a vacation home—supporting her claim that it was declared as a second residence. The evidence could undermine allegations of misrepresentation in her mortgage filings. 

Candidates for Powell’s Successor 

Powell’s term expires in May 2026, and speculation about his successor is already heating up. Reported frontrunners include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Waller, while BlackRock executive Rick Rieder is also emerging as a strong candidate. 

These developments place Fed independence and market credibility under intense scrutiny. Ahead of the decision, both political pressures and legal battles remain in sharp focus for global investors. 

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