Bitcoin Prices Fluctuate with the Election Wind

While the US election process has caused serious fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, there are several important reasons for this movement. First of all, with the increase in uncertainty before the election in the US, investors’ search for a safe haven comes to the fore. After Bitcoin hit $70,000 just hours before the election results, it has now increased by 2.4 percent in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $69,700.

Bitcoin Prices Fluctuate with the Election Wind

While the US election process has caused significant fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin, there are several important reasons for this movement. First of all, with the increasing uncertainty before the election in the US, investors are looking for a safe haven. After Bitcoin hit $70,000 just hours before the election results, it has now risen by 2.4 percent in the last 24 hours and is trading at $69,700.

In addition, the possible economic policies and regulatory approaches of the US government contain important clues for the future of the crypto market. In particular, the moves to be made regarding the regulation of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are of great importance for the long-term direction of the market. With a new administration, crypto regulations may be tightened or incentives for the crypto market may increase; this is seen as a factor that can determine the direction of the Bitcoin price.

Investors Are Alert to Volatility

Investors who expect high volatility during and after the election process are cautious against sudden price movements. Analysts state that the impact of the election result on the market will not be instantaneous, but will manifest itself in the form of long-term fluctuations. While sudden increases and decreases in cryptocurrencies, especially in an environment of uncertainty, direct investors to short-term buy-sell transactions, long-term investors evaluate these fluctuations as opportunities.

Increase in Liquidity in the Cryptocurrency Market

The uncertainty created by the US elections is causing an increase in liquidity in cryptocurrency markets. In addition to Bitcoin, there is an increase in trading volume in other leading digital assets such as Ethereum and Ripple. Experts state that the increase in liquidity is a result of investors’ search for diversification of their portfolios. While high trading volume fuels price volatility, this can also cause sudden jumps in Bitcoin’s price.

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Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin After the Election

The impact of the election results on the price of Bitcoin will depend on the policies that the US administration will implement after the election. Economic stimulus packages and interest rate policies can determine the long-term course of cryptocurrencies. In particular, moves towards controlling inflation and the value of the dollar can increase interest in digital assets with limited supply such as Bitcoin.

Another scenario is that Bitcoin will be adopted by more institutional investors. Economic policies that will emerge as a result of the US elections may affect the decisions of institutional firms to add assets such as Bitcoin to their portfolios. Bitcoin’s price heading towards a new peak after the election can be supported by such developments.

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Polymarket, which increased its monthly trading volume from $40 million to $2.5 billion between April and October, has also seen an increase in open positions from $20 million to $400 million. The platform’s website received 35 million visits in October, while Polymarket’s name has become a frequent topic in mainstream media outlets as well as crypto media.

According to the Animoca Brands Research report, approximately 75% of Polymarket users trade on the platform on various topics, taking positions on topics that are not directly related to the election. This shows that Polymarket has the potential to attract long-term attention beyond the election period. Additionally, the platform has not made a definitive decision on whether it plans a future tokenization event, which could keep users looking for an airdrop interested.

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Analysts noted that Polymarket’s long-term growth will depend on its market positioning, content strategy, and how it manages the regulatory environment. “As the platform grows in popularity, competition and public scrutiny from traditional and web3 platforms will also increase. The Polymarket team will need to make strategic choices to strengthen its position in order to fully leverage the visibility and influence it has gained,” they commented.

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Bitcoin price is trading just below its all-time high of $70,000. Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s suggestions for Bitcoin as a possible “financial emergency” have triggered huge speculation in the markets. At the same time, BlackRock CEO’s warnings to the Fed have led investors to brace for volatility that could be triggered by the US central bank and China’s influence.

According to Bitfinex analysts, “Election uncertainty, the ‘Trump trade’ narrative and the positive fourth-quarter seasonal effect are creating a perfect storm for Bitcoin.” The fourth quarter has historically been an uptrend, with the median quarterly return in halving years being 31.34%. This positive seasonal effect, combined with record open interest volume in Bitcoin options and futures, is boosting optimism among market participants towards the end of the year.

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Trump’s Embrace of Bitcoin Supports Prices

Donald Trump’s promise to support Bitcoin and crypto in the 2024 elections is having a positive impact on Bitcoin prices. Trump predicts that if he is re-elected, he will create a “Bitcoin strategic reserve” for the US, which will push Bitcoin’s price past gold. Plans such as paying off a portion of the US’s $35 trillion debt with Bitcoin and ensuring that all Bitcoin mining is done in the US indicate his goal of making the US the “crypto capital of the world.”

Policy Steps by the Fed and China May Affect the Bitcoin Price

The Fed is expected to implement another interest rate cut this week. “In the long run, lowering interest rates will stimulate the credit market and provide more liquidity, and Bitcoin will benefit from this,” said Agne Linge, WeFi’s head of growth, noting that most analysts support a 0.25% cut. This liquidity will dilute the value of the US dollar, reducing its purchasing power.

On the other hand, China is also expected to accelerate its stimulus program this week. Famous Bitcoin investors believe that such measures could trigger a new Bitcoin bull run.

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US Election Date

The US presidential elections are held every four years on the first Tuesday of November. The 2024 elections will also be held on Tuesday, November 5. Voters will choose between the incumbent president and the presidential candidates to determine the leader of the country.

Candidates and Parties

In these elections, the two major political parties, Democrats and Republicans, are competing with two prominent candidates. The Democratic Party’s candidate is incumbent President Joe Biden, but there has been a change to Kamala Harris as the election approaches, and the Republican Party’s candidate is Donald Trump.

Election Process and Campaigns

The election process in the USA begins with a long process of determining the candidate. Both the Democratic and Republican Party hold primaries, and at the end of this process, the official presidential candidate of each party is determined. Presidential candidates try to win votes by making various promises to the public during the election campaigns. The main topics of the campaigns focus on important issues such as the economy, health, immigration, education and foreign policy. This year, especially issues such as inflation, unemployment rates, environmental policies and international relations are of great interest to the voters.

Electoral System: Electoral College

In the US presidential elections, the president is not elected by direct vote. The election is carried out with a system called the “Electoral College”. Each state has a delegate count determined by its population, and when candidates receive the most votes in a state, they win all the delegates of that state. It is necessary to win at least 270 of the 538 delegates for the presidency. This system encourages candidates to collect votes not only in large states but also throughout the country.

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The Importance and Impact of Elections

The US presidential elections not only affect the domestic politics of the US, but also global politics and the economy. Since the US is one of the largest economies in the world, the presidential election also affects world markets, international diplomacy and security relations. For this reason, the 2024 elections are being followed with curiosity around the world.

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1. Regulatory Policies and Cryptocurrency Laws

It is a matter of curiosity how the government will regulate the cryptocurrency market after the elections. In particular, the clarification of the legal status of cryptocurrencies could lead to significant fluctuations in the crypto market. The adoption of a cryptocurrency-friendly policy by the party and candidate who will emerge victorious from the election could bring a positive atmosphere to the market. On the contrary, an administration that tends to impose strict regulations or bans could pose a risk for crypto assets.

2. Central Bank Interest Rate Policies and Economic Stability

The interest rate policies of the US Federal Reserve (FED) have a direct impact on cryptocurrencies. If there are changes in the management of the economy after the election, there may also be changes in the FED’s monetary policies. An increase in interest rates may cause a flight from risky assets, which may decrease cryptocurrency prices. Low interest policies may direct investors to alternative investments such as crypto assets, which may cause an increase in prices.

3. Market Tendency of Institutional Investors

The US election results will also affect the movements of large companies and institutional investors in the cryptocurrency market. The coming to power of a government that is more open to cryptocurrencies may encourage an increase in institutional investments. The potential for companies such as Tesla and MicroStrategy to increase their investments in crypto assets may create a positive atmosphere in the market. In addition, the possibility of approval of new financial products such as exchange-traded crypto funds (ETFs) may also change depending on the election results.

4. Geopolitical Tensions and the Global Power of the Dollar

Geopolitical tensions that may arise after the US elections may affect the global value of the dollar. If the dollar loses value, investors may seek alternative safe havens, and in this case, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin may become an attractive option. Especially during times of economic uncertainty, the popularity of crypto assets increases. Therefore, the effects of election results on the global economy will indirectly reflect on crypto markets.

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5. Social Perception and Market Psychology

The US elections are not limited to economics and politics, but also affect social psychology. After the elections, the environment of trust in society, interest in markets and investor psychology may directly change. Investors’ uncertainty about the election or their trust in the new administration may increase fluctuations in crypto markets. Especially post-election statements, regulations and economic promises may increase or decrease investors’ interest in cryptocurrencies.

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The main drivers of Bitcoin include financial indiscipline in the US, record debt levels, and quantitative easing. This is increasing demand for hard assets, while the success of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US is accelerating this trend. Bernstein analysts said, “Bitcoin is out of the bottle and it is difficult to reverse this course,” and added that they are maintaining their target of $200,000 by the end of 2025.

On the Polymarket platform, Trump’s advantage over Harris fell to 3% over the weekend after the Iowa polls. However, Trump still leads in Polymarket with a 57.9% chance, ahead of Harris’ 42.1% chance. On the Kalshi platform, Trump is ahead with a 54% chance, while Harris is ahead with a 46% chance. In national polls, Harris is ahead by 1%, within the margin of error.

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Bernstein analyst Chhugani said that the election results could cause short-term fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin and disagreed with the claims that Polymarket data was manipulated in favor of Trump. He also noted that Harris briefly had a 2% lead in Pennsylvania, but that this quickly turned in Trump’s 14% favor. In Polymarket, Trump is ahead in critical states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, while Harris is ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Bitcoin fell 7% from $73,500 on October 29 to $68,596.

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PolitiFi tokens become digital “squares” of politics and social issues, allowing users to express their allegiance to a leader or cause. Launched on August 11, 2023, MAGA Memecoin brings former US President Donald J. Trump and his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) slogan into digital form, bringing Trump supporters together. “Donald Trump is perhaps one of the most memed people in the world… MAGA Memecoin tokenizes the growing interest in Trump, MAGA, and populist movements around the world,” said a representative for MAGA Memecoin, emphasizing the cultural impact of the token.

A Real-World Memecoin: TRUMP

The TRUMP token doesn’t just reflect admiration for the former president, it also has a mission. The token team recently began expanding the project by distributing one million TRUMP napkins with QR codes to restaurants and bars across the US. Users are directed to a website where they can purchase TRUMP tokens or to the Moonshot platform where they can make quick purchases with Apple Pay. The project positions itself as a “normie-friendly” crypto.

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Rather than being caught up in short-term popularity like many memecoins, the TRUMP token stands out for its durability and longevity. This feature not only maintains the interest of investors, but also demonstrates the strength of a community that shares common values. Every transaction of the TRUMP token contributes to weekly donations to charities supporting US veterans and organizations fighting child trafficking. The 1% transaction tax in the contract ensures that donations are made on-chain, with over $2 million in donations made. This feature makes the TRUMP token unique as a charity memecoin.

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Bitcoin Market Await a Strong Base After Uncertainty

Lavant, who stated that the crypto market has been in a directionless trading process since April, said that the end of the post-election uncertainty could create a more solid base for the markets. “After six months of directionless trading, the markets seem willing to leave the election uncertainty behind and head to a more solid base,” he said.

Bitcoin traded between $53,991 and $73,149 during the election process. Lawant stated that investors think both candidates can provide positive effects for crypto, but he believes that a Trump win could increase crypto industry support more clearly. Swyftx’s Pav Hundal also said that Trump’s victory could create a “dopamine effect” in the market.

Post-Election Bitcoin Predictions

In the post-election period, options traders predict that Bitcoin could break all-time highs. Data from the Deribit exchange show that open interest in call contracts expiring at the end of November is focused on the $80,000 level.

Bitcoin and Solana Stand Out

Lawant said that Bitcoin and Solana stand out as “potentially outperforming” assets. He noted that Bitcoin could particularly benefit from ETF flows, while Solana’s strong narrative also makes it an interesting target for diversification. On the other hand, he noted that Ethereum was notably absent from such talks.

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10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero recently argued that the US elections would not affect the crypto market’s upward direction, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 regardless of the election result. “The election will pass and everything will continue to rise,” Tapiero said, downplaying the impact of the election on the crypto market.

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Trump and Harris’ Approach: Market Expectations and Bitcoin

Many expect Bitcoin to surge if Trump is elected president. His discussion of adding BTC to the US reserves and his crypto-friendly approach have created a positive atmosphere in the market. Trump aims to make the US a hub for digital finance by reducing regulatory barriers to crypto innovation. Harris, on the other hand, is expected to take a more cautious approach if elected. While Harris has not made any direct promises to crypto, he does care about user protection and preventing financial crime. Harris’ supporters are in favor of regulations that promote transparency in the crypto market.

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Regardless of the outcome, more comprehensive and positive crypto regulations are expected by 2025. Creating transparent and crypto-friendly regulatory frameworks will be a critical factor for Bitcoin’s future.

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However, critics argue that import taxes would create an indirect tax burden by increasing the prices of goods. Trump argues that these taxes could increase demand for dollars, protect domestic workers and make US exports more attractive.

Trump also floated the idea that the US could use Bitcoin to ease its $35 trillion national debt. In a conversation with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News, he hinted that the debt could be “erased” by giving creditors “a little Bitcoin.” Investment manager Bryan Courchesne said the Justice Department could transfer about 200,000 BTC seized through various legal operations to the Treasury and that it is possible to use this asset as a strategic reserve, but he also emphasized that bureaucratic hurdles must be overcome.

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In addition to Trump, former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has previously suggested creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve to protect the US dollar.

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