Investor Confidence in Prediction Markets

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Kalshi has raised $185 million in a new funding round led by Paradigm, pushing its total valuation to $2 billion. Other participants included Sequoia Capital, Multicoin Capital, and several notable investors.

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Founded in 2018, Kalshi allows users to make predictions through contracts available on Robinhood Markets and Webull. CEO Tarek Mansour stated that the company will use the funds to expand its technology team and integrate its contracts into additional brokerages.

Regulatory Win Strengthens Kalshi’s Position

Unlike its rival Polymarket, Kalshi is federally regulated and authorized to operate within the United States. This provides a clear legal advantage, especially following a recent win in its legal battle with the CFTC. In May 2025, the regulator dropped its appeal, opening the door to greater acceptance of political prediction contracts in the U.S.

Both platforms gained significant traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, underscoring the public’s appetite for alternative forecasting tools.

Crypto, Politics, and Sports Forecasting

Kalshi offers markets on a range of topics—from Bitcoin and economics to sports and weather. Bloomberg Intelligence reported that in March and April 2025, 79% of Kalshi‘s trading volume came from sports predictions. However, these contracts have also led to legal challenges with certain state regulators.

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The story involves a $300 million purchase of Trump’s official memecoin. But the Chinese tech giant was quick to push back on the claims.

TikTok: “False and Irresponsible Accusation”

Democratic Representative Brad Sherman accused the Chinese owners of TikTok of buying “Trump Coins” as a political bribe. However, TikTok’s official policy account on X sharply denied the claim, calling it false and misleading.

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“This is patently false and irresponsible, and doesn’t even reflect a letter you signed last month,” the company said in a public statement.

GD Culture Group Creates Confusion

Sherman’s claim may have stemmed from reports about Nasdaq-listed GD Culture Group announcing plans to purchase Trump memecoin and Bitcoin. While GD Culture produces AI-driven content on TikTok, it has no formal affiliation with TikTok or its parent company ByteDance.

Still, Sherman linked these announcements directly to TikTok, suggesting they represented a disguised financial favor to Trump. The lack of evidence for any such connection raised eyebrows across the political and crypto communities alike.

Community Pushback Against Sherman’s Claim

Sherman is known for his anti-crypto stance, previously calling for a blanket ban on digital assets. His recent comments were quickly dismissed by much of the online community, who questioned his grasp of crypto mechanics and motivations.

Some users criticized the accusation as politically charged misinformation, while others highlighted that cryptocurrencies cannot simply be created “at no cost.”

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Grok, xAI’s artificial intelligence system, will analyze real-time posts on the X platform. These analyses will generate notes for Polymarket’s prediction markets. In return, Polymarket’s data will support Grok’s responses by connecting them to relevant discussions on X. Shayne Coplan (Polymarket CEO): 

“The two best truth-seeking applications on the internet are stronger together.” 

Thanks to the partnership, X customers will now have direct access to Polymarket’s prediction markets. Additionally, X’s strong user base will contribute to Polymarket’s growth. This creates mutual benefits for both parties. Moreover, the effective use of blockchain technology will set new industry standards. 

Partnership Details and Expectations 

Under the agreement, X and Polymarket will begin co-developing new products. The two companies aim to offer innovative solutions in blockchain-based financial products. Furthermore, joint projects will expand the user base of crypto and prediction market participants. As a result, more investors will join the digital economy. 

Polymarket is known for creating prediction markets on highly engaging topics such as US elections, sports events, and financial happenings. The platform enables users to assess probabilities of events and earn rewards based on those predictions. With this collaboration, X is expected to increase social media users’ participation in prediction markets, enhancing platform engagement. Linda Yaccarino (X CEO): 

“This partnership is a significant step in transparency and real-time information delivery. Polymarket ensures transparency through prediction markets and has become a real-time information source for many X users. We are pleased to partner with Polymarket and look forward to offering our data and technology to Polymarket users through various creative product integrations.” 

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CBDC Anti-Surveillance Law Reintroduced

On March 6, Emmer reintroduced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act in the House of Representatives. At the March 11 hearing, Emmer renewed his call for Congress to pass the legislation. The bill aims to prevent future administrations from launching a US CBDC without explicit Congressional approval.

Emmer stated that CBDC technology is inherently “un-American”, warning that allowing unelected bureaucrats to issue a CBDC “could upend the American way of life.”

On January 23, Donald Trump signed an executive order prohibiting “the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use” of a CBDC in America. Emmer said that his reintroduced legislation could “prevent a future administration from creating such an obvious tool for financial surveillance against its own citizens” if signed into law, citing concerns about privacy and financial independence.

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Paxos CEO Calls for Stablecoin Regulations

At the same hearing, Paxos CEO Charles Cascarilla urged lawmakers to create consistent stablecoin regulations across jurisdictions to avoid regulatory arbitrage. Paxos, a major stablecoin issuer, recommended clear guidelines and reciprocal rules with global regulators:

“We want to make sure we have the same set of rules in the US as we have around the world so that there isn’t some arbitrage that is possible to issue from another jurisdiction. And by having that same set of rules that everyone has to meet in order to access the US market, it will actually create a race to the top, not a race to the bottom.”

Emmer, a Minnesota Republican, also criticized CBDCs for their inherent privacy risks, stating that stablecoins could bring traditional finance on-chain at a global scale while preserving privacy:

“This underscores why we must prioritize pro-stablecoin legislation alongside anti-CBDC legislation.”

Crypto Companies’ Political Influence Grows

Amid rapid pro-crypto developments, a report by the Center for Political Accountability (CPA) raised concerns about the increasing political influence of crypto companies in America and potential risks to regulatory stability.

According to the March 7 report, cryptocurrency firms spent a cumulative $134 million on the 2024 US elections in “unchecked political spending,” raising concerns about transparency and regulatory capture.

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Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Approach

If Donald Trump is re-elected, some positive policies for the crypto sector are expected to emerge. Specifically, the potential removal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and increased incentives for Bitcoin mining are viewed positively for the market. Trump has even shown his support for the industry by accepting crypto donations for his campaign.

Three Visible Threats

Coin Center warns that the current regulatory environment in the US could hinder innovation. Three main threats are highlighted:

• Section 6050I and Tax Reporting: This regulation, requiring reporting of profits over $10,000 to the IRS, is seen as a major obstacle for crypto investors.
• Tornado Cash Sanctions: Sanctions against crypto mixers like Tornado Cash threaten the future of unregulated services.
• AML Policies: Stricter anti-money laundering policies could create issues regarding user privacy and access to services.

Long-Term Risks of Crypto Policies

Despite Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, the broader impact of these regulations is debated. Some analysts believe such policies could provide short-term gains for investors but could push innovation outside the US. If Kamala Harris is elected, it’s likely that Biden’s strict regulatory approach would continue, although there may be a more balanced path due to California’s tech background.

Van Valkenburgh argues that the sector’s sanctions have been insufficient in preventing criminal activities, suggesting that regulations need to be more user-friendly and effective. Moreover, investors are advised to remain cautious about potential regulatory changes and market fluctuations.

The 2024 elections present new opportunities and risks for the crypto market. While Trump’s policies may boost market values in the short term, a stricter regulatory framework could lead to negative consequences in the long term. In this process, it is crucial for investors and developers to closely monitor changes in the legal framework.

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These loans are typically collateralized by volatile assets, with collateral values close to their liquidation threshold. Investors use these loans to capitalize on market fluctuations. However, if these loans are collectively liquidated, it could have a significant impact on the broader crypto market.

Many crypto experts argue that mass liquidations of high-risk loans may not necessarily trigger a major market collapse. Alexander Sudeykin, co-founder of Evaa Protocol, said, “In recent years, DeFi has matured, with major protocols adopting strong risk management practices.” This means DeFi has become more resilient to risks, and the impact of large-scale liquidations might be limited.

However, DeFi loans, while more accessible than traditional bank loans, come with higher risks due to the overcollateralization requirement and the volatility of the assets used as collateral. Investors are looking to profit but may face substantial losses. This highlights the need for effective risk management.

As DeFi loans rise during a volatile period in the crypto markets, it signals potential uncertainties in the future.

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Strongest Candidate: Robinhood Executive Dan Gallagher

One of the most prominent candidates for SEC chair is Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s general counsel. Gallagher has a background that aligns with the Trump administration’s interest in the cryptocurrency sector. According to Reuters, Gallagher holds a positive reputation within the crypto community, which could be a strategic advantage for the new administration, looking to implement crypto-friendly regulations. Gallagher also previously served as a member of the SEC under the Republican Party from 2011 to 2015, gaining valuable experience at the institution.

Paul Atkins Among the Candidates

Another name under consideration by Trump’s team is Paul Atkins, CEO of Patomak Global Partners. Atkins stands out due to his experience as a former SEC commissioner and his role in Trump’s 2016 transition team. Known for his pragmatic approach to financial regulations and free-market stance, Atkins fits well with the Trump team’s desire for less intervention in the market.

Might interest you: Who Could Replace Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman?

The third candidate is Robert Stebbins, a former general counsel at the SEC. Stebbins’ deep knowledge of the SEC’s inner workings and his legal experience make him a strong contender for the role. His technical expertise positions him as a capable leader for the SEC.

Hester Peirce Rejects SEC Chairmanship

Hester Peirce, another name considered by Trump’s team, has publicly stated she is not interested in the SEC chairmanship. Known as the “mother of crypto,” Peirce has been an outspoken critic of Gensler’s leadership, advocating for crypto-friendly policies. Her decision to withdraw further clarifies the Trump team’s aim to appoint a president-friendly to the crypto sector.

Trump’s Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, stated, “Trump will make his decision soon, and once the decisions are made, an announcement will be made immediately.” The Trump team is taking careful steps in selecting candidates that will shape the future of U.S. financial markets.

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Declaring, “instead of attacking sectors of the future, we will embrace them, including making America the world capital of crypto and Bitcoin,” Former US president Trump vowed to remove out-of-date regulations in order to provide the avenue for creativity. Additionally valued for his support and sponsorship of these projects was Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla.

Trump put in his agenda the creation of a government efficiency commission. Musk, who expressed enthusiasm for the idea, has offered to oversee the task team assigned given he has the time. “Elon agreed to head that task force since he is not very busy,” Trump replied teasingly. Reacting on X, Musk stated, “this is badly needed” and that the initiative will “unlock tremendous prosperity for America.”

Aiming for a financial and performance audit of the federal government, the task force will support drastic measures aimed to increase efficiency. One of its key goals within six months will be to draft an action plan meant to eradicate improper payments and fraud. Declaring, “this will save trillions of dollars… trillions of dollars are wasted, and nobody knows where it went,” Trump underscored the probable savings.

The US Government Accountability Office projects that federal agencies paid an estimated $236 billion in improper payments in 2023; cumulative totals since 2003 equal $2.7 trillion.

Trump’s new attitude as a pro-crypto candidate reflects a bigger effort to grab the growing base of crypto fans as he starts his campaign for the 2024 presidential fight.

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Hyland claims that in preceding election years, Bitcoin experienced significant losses in August followed by a comeback in the months before the vote. As history cycles have indicated, he predicts a probable breakthrough in October or November; nonetheless, he expects Bitcoin’s price to remain erratic for a bit.

Not all vendors, however, have optimism. Some believe that Bitcoin could witness further bearish swings before any meaningful return. Others, like MN creator Michael van de Poppe, advised of further lows should Bitcoin lose crucial support levels; crypto trader Rager expressed his view that the price may collapse below its existing level by the end of September.

Before buying Bitcoin, consumers should wait for a probable drop below the low $40,000 level, advises Markus Thielen of 10x Research; this might be the best entry point ahead of the next bull run.

At the time of posting, Bitcoin is selling $59,207; down 10% from July 18.

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