It is still early to see concrete impacts of AI on the labor market, but the report will be closely monitored for weak job growth or unexpected job losses.

Market-Moving Events on Friday

Besides today’s payroll data, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Daly, Paulson, Collins, and Hammack will be key for markets. Rising bond yields are pressuring Fed rate cut expectations, while risk assets are recovering from movements in oil prices. Bitcoin and global equities have stabilized after the early-week sell-off triggered by the US-Israel-Iran tensions.

Bonds remain cautious; rising yields are bringing inflation concerns back into focus. Strong economic data from the US and ongoing energy-driven price shocks are keeping investors on edge.

Bitcoin and Equities

Bitcoin traded above $70,000 on Friday, gaining roughly 10% since the start of the week. Prices had dropped to around $65,000 over the weekend due to US-Israel-Iran tensions, then briefly climbed to $74,000 on Wednesday.

S&P 500 futures also rebounded; contracts that fell to 6,718 on Tuesday have climbed to about 6,840 at the time of writing.

Oil and Geopolitical Risks

Reports that Iran blocked oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered initial risk-off moves. The US quickly responded, providing escort for tankers and political risk coverage, bringing short-term stability to markets. Brent crude is trading around $85.47.

The bond market remains cautious. According to CME Fed Funds futures, investors now see less than a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates twice by 25 basis points this year, down from around 80% before the conflict. Attention is now on today’s job data and wage growth figures.

Labor Data and Fed Expectations

Last month, US labor data exceeded expectations: 130,000 new jobs were created in January, unemployment dropped to 4.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.4%. Expectations for February are more moderate, suggesting a return to the “low hiring, low firing” pattern seen over the past year.

Jerome Powell’s April meeting will be particularly critical for Fed policy. Higher-than-expected employment or wage growth could weaken rate cut expectations and trigger new market volatility.

Market Notes and Micro Data

• BTC: $70,642 (approx. 10% gain since start of week)
• S&P 500 Futures: 6,840
• Bond yields: rising, Fed cut expectations decreasing
• Oil: brief spike after Hormuz Strait news, now stable

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The post US Nonfarm Payrolls Released Today! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Monday | Politics Meets Crypto

The week opens with a Washington-centric development. A planned discussion between Donald Trump and Coinbase on a crypto policy proposal will be closely watched for tone rather than outcome. While no immediate decision is expected, the framing could influence regulatory expectations.

On the macro side, January ISM Manufacturing PMI data will be released in the US, offering an early signal ahead of labor market indicators later in the week.

Tuesday | Turkey Data and Altcoin Headlines

Tuesday is critical for domestic markets. Turkey’s annual CPI will be announced at 10:00 AM local time. Expectations stand at 30%, compared to the previous 30.89%. Any confirmation of stabilization could affect short-term pricing across TRY-denominated assets.

The crypto calendar is dense:

• Ondo Finance ($ONDO) will present its 2026 roadmap update during the Ondo Summit.

• Chiliz ($CHZ) will unveil its fan token and ecosystem strategy through 2030.

• Lido ($LDO) is set to announce its long-awaited V3 upgrade.

In the US, December JOLTS Job Openings data will provide a second signal on labor demand trends.

Wednesday | Trade Talks and DeFi Activity

Midweek brings a mix of geopolitics and on-chain developments. A trade agreement between the EU and the US is expected, with potential implications for overall risk sentiment.

On the crypto side:

• Venus Protocol will introduce a new DeFi product on BNB Chain ($XVS).

• STABLE will complete its planned network upgrade.

Meanwhile, Alphabet ($GOOGL) will report earnings, with Big Tech results likely influencing broader equity sentiment.

Thursday | Central Banking and Earnings

Thursday shifts focus to Europe. The European Central Bank interest rate decision will be announced at 16:15, with expectations pointing to a hold at 2.15%. Beyond the rate itself, the wording of the statement will be closely parsed.

In the US, Initial Jobless Claims data will be released. After market close, Strategy will publish earnings, potentially reopening discussions around balance-sheet Bitcoin exposure. Amazon ($AMZN) will also report results the same day.

Friday | The Week’s Inflection Point: Jobs Data

The week concludes with US labor market figures:

• Non-Farm Payrolls – 16:30 (expected: 67K, previous: 50K)

• Unemployment Rate – 16:30 (expected: 4.4%, previous: 4.4%)

These releases will not only shape dollar and bond markets but may also determine short-term direction across risk assets. The January US Jobs Report could prompt a reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations.

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According to the Dow Jones consensus, approximately 53,000 new jobs are expected in the public and private sectors in September. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain unchanged at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings (AHE) are expected to increase by 0.3% monthly and 3.7% annually.

Analysts suggest that if the NFP figure comes in below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises unexpectedly, it would confirm a slowdown in the U.S. labor market and could reignite expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. In this scenario, the USD could come under selling pressure, and the EUR/USD pair may rise toward the 1.1700 level. Conversely, if employment exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, EUR/USD could fall below 1.1400. Technical indicators also support the downside potential, with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1574 and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading below the midpoint.

Report Features and Background

The September report will be the first official employment release following the prolonged federal government shutdown, ending the data blackout. Although retrospective, it provides crucial insights for investors and Fed officials who relied on alternative private data sources during the shutdown period in Washington D.C.

The BLS will not release a separate October employment report; it will be combined with the November report and published in December. Therefore, the September data will offer only limited visibility into the current state of the labor market. Revisions to July and August data will also be included in the report, potentially increasing its market impact.

Joseph Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM, stated, “The labor market, like the economy, is holding on. The report indicates a slightly brighter picture than expected, but there is nothing to boast about.”

Possible Scenarios and Market Impact

1. NFP Exceeds Expectations
Example: Employment rises to 70,000, above the 50,000 forecast.

• USD: Strengthens.

• Stocks: May face short-term pressure.

• Gold and cryptocurrencies: Could be negatively affected.

• Reason: Strong employment increases the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, limiting risk appetite.

2. NFP Falls Short of Expectations
Example: Employment increases only 20,000, below the 50,000 forecast.

• USD: Weakens.

• Equities and cryptocurrencies: May rise.

• Gold and safe-haven assets: Could gain value.

• Reason: Weak employment reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike, which markets may interpret positively.

3. Unemployment Rate Falls Below Expectations
Example: Reported at 4.1% instead of 4.3%.

• USD: Strengthens.

• Stocks: May face pressure.

• Gold and cryptocurrencies: Could be negatively affected.

• Reason: A stronger labor force increases the likelihood of Fed maintaining a tight monetary policy.

4. Unemployment Rate Exceeds Expectations
Example: Reported at 4.5% instead of 4.3%.

• USD: Weakens.

• Stocks and cryptocurrencies: May rise.

• Economic growth concerns: May increase.

• Reason: Higher unemployment reinforces expectations for Fed policy easing.

Historical Data and Additional Context

• August 2025: Employment +22,000, Unemployment 4.3%

• September 2025 forecast: Employment ~50,000, Unemployment 4.3%

• Goldman Sachs forecast: September +80,000, October -50,000

• Private data indicators: ADP employment data, Challenger Gray & Christmas layoff reports, and other private metrics provide additional context for investors interpreting the report.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that markets are navigating based on available data, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller stressed that policymakers are not “flying blind” despite potential data gaps.

Summary

September’s Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment data may trigger short-term volatility for investors but remain one of the most critical indicators for policymakers and market analysts this year. Whether the figures exceed or fall short of expectations, they could cause immediate, noticeable movements in the USD, equities, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. Revisions and subsequent data releases will also provide significant signals for the Fed’s December meeting and overall market direction.

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• PCE Index (Year-over-Year): 2.5% 
• Previous: 2.3% 
• Actual: 2.6%

• Initial Unemployment Claims: 222,000 
• Previous: 217,000 
• Actual: 218,000

• Core PCE Index (Year-over-Year): 2.7% 
• Previous: 2.7% 
• Actual: 2.8%

What is the PCE Index? 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index measures the annual change in consumer spending, a critical component of US economic growth. The Federal Reserve closely watches this index as a key indicator of inflation, which helps shape its monetary policy decisions. 

Initial Unemployment Claims Explained 

This weekly report counts the number of new claims for unemployment benefits, providing a timely snapshot of the labor market’s health. Sudden increases can signal weakness, while decreases indicate strengthening employment conditions. 

Core PCE Index: The Inflation Gauge 

The Core PCE Index excludes volatile food and energy prices to give a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for assessing inflationary pressures in the economy. 

Market Impact and Policy Relevance 

Strong or weak readings in these reports can significantly influence financial markets, including the US dollar, equities, and bond markets. Moreover, the Federal Reserve uses these indicators to guide interest rate decisions and assess the economy’s trajectory.

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The post US July 2025 Economic Data: PCE & Unemployment Released appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Summary: 

• Expected: 227K 
  Previous: 221K 
  Actual: 217K

Why This Data Matters 

Weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. indicate the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data provides direct insight into short-term labor market dynamics. A decrease in claims signals fewer layoffs and suggests labor market stability. In a period marked by high inflation and tight monetary policies, such data is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s decisions. 

Historical Comparison: General Trend in Jobless Claims 

U.S. jobless claims have fluctuated recently, showing a limited upward trend overall. Claims rose to 233,000 at the end of June, then dropped again to 227,000 by mid-July. 

• In the second half of 2024, claims generally fluctuated between 220,000 and 240,000. These levels are still considered low historically. For example: 
• During the 2020 pandemic, weekly claims soared to several million. 
• In mid-2022, weekly claims averaged around 250,000–270,000. 
• In 2023, these numbers fell to around 200,000–230,000. 

This year’s levels indicate that the U.S. labor market continues to largely sustain its post-pandemic recovery, with no widespread layoffs.

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• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 
  Expectation: 0.3%
  Previous: 0.4% 
  Actual: 0.2% 

Changes in average hourly earnings are closely monitored as an indicator of wage inflation. The announced figure holds importance for the Fed’s inflation-fighting policy. 

• Non-Farm Payrolls
  Expectation: 111K
  Previous: 139K
  Actual: 147K

The non-farm payroll data is a key indicator of the overall health of the U.S. labor market. A result above expectations may indicate strong economic activity. 

• U.S. Unemployment Rate 
  Expectation: 4.3% 
  Previous: 4.2% 
  Actual: 4.1% 

Changes in the unemployment rate offer clues about the tightness of the labor market. This is critically important for the Fed’s interest rate decisions. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) June survey of the U.S. manufacturing sector revealed that job losses are at their fastest pace in three months. In particular, April data indicated a significant decline, reducing employment estimates for the previous two months by a total of 58,000 jobs.

In conclusion, today’s U.S. employment and earnings data provides important insights into the overall health of the economy and the direction of the Fed’s monetary policy. While the data is closely followed by the markets, changes in wage growth and unemployment are especially critical in terms of inflation and interest rate decisions. In the coming period, how these figures will shape financial markets and consumer confidence will remain an important topic for investors to monitor. Stay tuned for updates. 

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The post U.S. Employment and Earnings Data Announced!  appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Monthly PPI Falls -0.5%, Defying Expectations

The Monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at -0.5%, well below the market forecast of 0.2%. The previous month’s reading stood at -0.4%, indicating sustained downward pressure on producer prices.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Meanwhile, the Yearly PPI was reported at 2.4%, slightly below expectations of 2.5%, and down from the previous reading of 2.7%. The data suggests that inflation may be cooling faster than anticipated, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to consider rate cuts.

Jobless Claims Match Expectations

In line with forecasts, initial jobless claims were reported at 229K, up slightly from the previous week’s 228K. While the labor market remains stable, inflation data took center stage in driving investor sentiment.

Following the economic releases, Bitcoin climbed from 102,430 $ to 102,805 $, marking a 0.40% increase. The crypto market welcomed the lower inflation figures, with BTC showing resilience amid broader economic uncertainty.

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