This figure was around 20% just a few months ago—risk perception has clearly shifted.

Interestingly, despite this environment, the crypto market—especially its largest asset—remains relatively stable.

Bitcoin Holds Around $67K

In the first trading hours of the week, the leading cryptocurrency traded at approximately $67,378.

This reflects a 1.1% increase in the past 24 hours, while weekly movements remain largely in the same range.

Other major crypto assets also saw limited gains:

• Ethereum (ETH) rose roughly 2.3% to $1,981, just below the $2,000 psychological level

• BNB reached $624, up 1.4%

• Dogecoin traded at $0.09, up 1.8%

• Solana climbed 1.8% to $83.69 but remains down 1.5% weekly

• XRP remained steady at $1.35, down about 1% weekly

Crypto markets are showing relative calm, contrasting sharply with global equities.

Global Markets Under Pressure

In Asian trading hours, S&P 500 futures fell more than 2%.

The VIX volatility index, a key risk gauge, has surged to its highest level since the April tariff crisis.

Oil remaining above $100 further complicates the picture. Rising energy costs not only impact business expenses but also push inflation expectations higher, which in turn pressures central banks.

Fed Caught Between Two Fires

Ed Yardeni points out that the US economy is stuck between two pressures:

• The risk of renewed inflation triggered by rising oil prices

• The threat of higher unemployment due to economic slowdown

This scenario limits the Federal Reserve’s policy maneuvering. Yardeni raises the market collapse probability to 35%, while assigning only a 5% chance for a strong bullish scenario.

Bitcoin Correlation with Stocks

Although Bitcoin has recently moved in parallel with tech stocks, new data suggest the correlation is limited.

According to research by NYDIG, only about 25% of Bitcoin’s price movement can be explained by US equities. The remaining 75% stems from crypto-specific factors.

NYDIG research head Greg Cipolaro explains that recent parallels with US software stocks reflect shared macro exposure rather than structural convergence.

What Happens If Risk Aversion Surges?

Historically, during major market stress periods since 2020, investors have tended to move from volatile assets to cash, US dollars, or government bonds.

Bitcoin has not been immune to these sell-offs. Therefore, if global risk-aversion spikes, cryptocurrencies may not remain fully insulated.

Currently, however, crypto markets appear comparatively resilient.

US Markets’ Cushion Is Shrinking

Until recently, US markets were more resilient than other regions, partly due to energy self-sufficiency.

However, the 2% drop in Monday futures signals that even this buffer is weakening.

If global risk appetite continues to decline, US markets—and by extension crypto—may also face pressure. For now, Bitcoin remains relatively stable.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum Critical Levels

Corporate data shows that K33 Research reports the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in the US at roughly $89,613, about 11% below the current price. Investors view this as a critical technical support zone. (Sources: Bloomberg, K33 Research) BTC dropped to $98,944 during intraday trading, losing over 7% in 24 hours. This move tests key technical support levels.

Ethereum (ETH) fell about 14% to $3,089, marking its lowest level in four months. This highlights the volatility in the crypto market and investors’ withdrawal from risky assets.

Historic Drop in the US Stock Market

The US equity market lost roughly $730 billion in total market value today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw sharp declines. The federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, has created market uncertainty. Combined with liquidity concerns and investor anxiety, this intensified selling pressure in both stocks and crypto markets.

Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Overview

According to CoinMarketCap, the global crypto market started at $4.3 trillion on October 6, dropped to $3.9 trillion around October 10–12, and fell again to $3.35 trillion by November 1. The 24-hour trading volume reached $280.73 billion.

The Fear & Greed Index reads 27, indicating “Fear.” The Altcoin Season Index shows 25/100, with Bitcoin dominating altcoins. The CoinMarketCap 20 Index at 210.95 mirrors the general market trend, showing that major cryptocurrencies are moving in line with the overall market decline.

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Although US stock markets opened with declines, losses were quickly recovered. Oil and gold prices initially rose but then fell back. The global MSCI index only dropped by 0.12%. Safe-haven assets showed mixed performance: the Japanese yen lost 0.64% against the dollar, while gold prices slightly decreased. Experts attribute the market calmness to expectations that the military intervention will not be prolonged. The Trump administration is keeping its military actions against Iran limited and deterrent. The prevailing belief is that the regional conflict will not escalate. 

Geopolitical Risks Are Controlled by Markets 

According to Dan Ives from Wedbush, the removal of Iran’s nuclear threat is positive for the market. At this stage, the possibility of the Iran-Israel conflict turning into a regional war is considered low. Therefore, markets are not panicking. 

Peter Boockvar, investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, states that market stability will be maintained if Iran ends its military nuclear program. Iran is not expected to take actions that would disrupt global oil supply. Michael Hartnett, strategist at Bank of America, says Trump does not want gas prices to remain above $4. It is also predicted that Trump will continue to pressure Russia and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. 

Iran’s Countermeasures and the Strait of Hormuz Risk 

Despite Iran’s parliament deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns remain limited. Experts emphasize that the likelihood of Iran implementing this threat is low. Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy says Iran’s countermeasures will be limited. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices would surge above $100, panic would ensue in markets, and stocks could fall more than 10%. However, this scenario is considered unlikely. 

In the past, Iran has made similar threats but did not close the strait. Papic notes that Iran is aware of the heavy retaliation that would come from the US. 

Three Possible Scenarios for Oil Prices According to Analysts 

• Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats outlines three scenarios shaping oil prices: 
• Oil flow continues uninterrupted, Brent crude falls to around $60. 
• Iran’s oil exports decline significantly, eliminating global oversupply, prices hover between $75-80. 
• Expanded conflict threatens Gulf oil exports, prices could rise to $140 as in 2022. 
• Whether price movements are temporary or permanent is critical. Recently, WTI oil prices rose by 10%, Brent crude by 18%. 

Long-Term Positive Outlook for US Stocks 

Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, states that geopolitical developments will not change the long-term upward trend of US stock markets. Trump’s limited military intervention increases market confidence. Yardeni suggests the destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites could create structural changes in the Middle East. Short-term uncertainty and volatility are possible, but market confidence could strengthen over time. 

The expectation that Iran will respond limitedly and that the conflict can be controlled keeps investors cautiously optimistic. 

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While the Fed’s interest rate cut provided temporary relief to the markets, Citi analysts predict that another 50 basis point cut could come in November if the slowdown in the labor market continues. A 25 basis point cut is expected in December, meaning that 2024 will end with a total interest rate cut of 125 basis points.

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However, the dollar index’s brief rises sent Bitcoin retreating to $62,700 and some stocks losing value. Still, the Fed’s rate cuts continue to create a positive atmosphere in the markets overall.

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Impact of US Stock Market Activity on Cryptocurrencies

The US is known for its strong position in financial markets. The considerable influence of US stock markets on the crypto market is substantial, given their large exchanges, liquid markets, and broad investor base. Particularly, major crypto assets are directly linked to the trading volume on US exchanges. Significant transactions on these exchanges can lead to sudden fluctuations in crypto asset prices. Price volatility is a crucial factor that investors pay attention to, and the liquid markets of US stock exchanges can influence these fluctuations.

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Effect of News and Announcements

The influence of US stock markets on the crypto market is not only limited to trading volume. Factors such as news, announcements, and regulatory developments also determine this impact. For example, regulations on crypto assets by the US government or policy decisions by the US Federal Reserve (FED) can have widespread effects on the crypto market. Following such developments, the trading volume on US stock exchanges may increase, directly affecting the prices of crypto assets.

Impact of Institutional Investors

Another significant factor influencing the crypto market through US stock markets is the interest of institutional investors. In recent years, major financial institutions and companies have increased their interest in crypto assets. US stock markets have become a platform for institutional investors to trade crypto assets. The entry of such investors can increase both trading volume and support the widespread adoption of crypto assets.

US Market Reputation and Trust

The impact of US stock markets on the crypto market also plays a decisive role in market reputation and trust. The reliability and compliance with regulations of large US-based exchanges can enhance investor confidence in crypto assets. This, in turn, can contribute to the broader adoption of the crypto market by the masses.

The influence of US stock markets on the crypto market is extensive and encompasses various factors. Elements such as liquid market structure, price volatility, the impact of news, institutional investor interest, and market trust show how US stock markets shape the crypto market. These effects can impact the future valuations and adoption of crypto assets. Therefore, closely monitoring the activities of US stock markets is crucial for crypto investors and market observers.

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