Details of the Postponements

The SEC has postponed decisions on several high-profile ETF applications, including Grayscale’s filings for Dogecoin (DOGE), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Cardano (ADA). Additionally, Canary Capital, Bitwise, and 21Shares have also seen delays in their XRP ETF applications.

The regulator further delayed decisions on Solana (SOL) ETFs submitted by 21Shares, Canary, and VanEck. The last of the altcoin-related ETF postponements was Canary Capital’s Litecoin (LTC) filing.

Other crypto ETF delays include in-kind creation and redemptions for BlackRock IBIT ETF, as well as Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) and Fidelity Ethereum ETF (FETH). Additionally, 21Shares’ Core Ethereum ETF proposal to include staking has also been postponed.

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New Applications and Market Race Intensify

Despite these delays, the SEC has acknowledged new filings, including Grayscale’s Hedera (HBAR) ETF and Bitwise’s updated Dogecoin (DOGE) filing. Moreover, on March 11, Franklin Templeton filed an S-1 Form for its own XRP ETF, further intensifying the altcoin ETF race.

Strong Approval Odds for 2025!

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart emphasized that these delays are part of standard procedure and should not raise concerns. He also noted that Paul Atkins has yet to be confirmed as the new SEC chair, which may have influenced the delay timeline.

In February, Seyffart and Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas published their approval probability estimates for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) ETFs. According to their analysis, Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% chance of approval in 2025, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75%. Solana (SOL) has a 70% probability, while XRP holds a 65% chance of approval.

The analysts highlighted that these approval odds were below 5% before Donald Trump’s election victory in November. Since then, regulatory sentiment has shifted, significantly increasing the likelihood of ETF approvals. If the regulatory environment continues to improve in the US, these odds may rise even further.

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Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States recorded net inflows the day after Christmas, halting the outflows of over $1.5 billion that occurred between December 19 and December 24.

According to CoinGlass data, on December 26, a total of 11 ETFs saw net inflows of $475.2 million. Of these, $254.4 million flowed into the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund.

The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF followed with $186.9 million in inflows, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) took in $56.5 million.

Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin ETF and VanEck ETF saw more modest inflows of $7.2 million and $2.7 million, respectively.

Since US markets were closed on December 25 for Christmas, these inflows came after four consecutive trading days of total net outflows amounting to $1.52 billion from the ETFs between December 19 and December 24.

All Bitcoin ETF Inflows Since January

IBIT experienced its largest-ever single-day net outflow of $188.7 million on December 24, more than doubling its previous record of $72.7 million set on December 20. This came as Bitcoin dropped 2.2% in the last 24 hours, falling from around $98,000 to just above $96,000. According to CoinGlass data, Ether ETFs saw their third consecutive trading day of net inflows, totaling $301.6 million over that period.

On December 26, ETH funds saw a total of $117.2 million in net inflows, led once again by Fidelity’s ETF, which saw $83 million in net inflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF followed with $28.2 million, while Grayscale’s ETH Trust took in $6 million.

ETH dropped 1.7% in the last 24 hours, falling below $3,400. Unlike Bitcoin, which reached new all-time highs over the past two months, ETH has lagged behind.

Unlike the 24-hour, always-on assets tracked by crypto ETFs, these funds have only three trading days left in the year — December 27, 30, and 31.

In its first year, Bitcoin ETFs have seen total net inflows of $35.9 billion, with total assets under management (AUM) reaching $111.9 billion.

Ether ETFs, meanwhile, have taken in $2.63 billion in net inflows for the year, with an AUM of around $12 billion.

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VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, announced in a statement on the X platform on June 27 that the firm has applied to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the Solana ETF.

The new fund, called VanEck Solana Trust, aims to benefit from Solana’s decentralized structure, high usability and economic viability. According to Sigel, this trust is the first filing for the Solana ETF in the US.

Sigel shared a few comments on why they believe SOL is a commodity. He wrote:

“We believe the native token SOL functions similarly to other digital commodities such as Bitcoin and Ether. It is used to pay transaction fees and computational services on the blockchain. Like ether on the Ethereum network, SOL can be traded on digital asset platforms or used in peer-to-peer transactions.”

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The SEC, in its statement following this decision, stated that “The Commission finds it appropriate to set a longer period in order to have sufficient time to assess the proposed changes and any problems that may arise in relation to this.” In addition, ARK21Shares and VanEck have also postponed their ETF applications by the SEC.

Evaluation process for ETF applications should be completed within a maximum of 240 days from the date of entry to the Federal Register.

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Therefore, the SEC could postpone a decision on current applications until the end of 2024. Additionally, considering additional requests for public feedback, there is a chance that they might further delay this decision.

Typically, the SEC can delay decisions by fully using the 240-day period. Therefore, decisions on ETF applications from companies like BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck, Bitwise, and Valkyrie Digital Assets are expecting to be take by mid-October.

This postponement process leads to a waiting period among investors and companies while allowing for a more detailed examination of applications. While waiting for the results of ETF applications, we will be closely monitoring the upcoming months to see how financial markets will react to these developments.

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