Post-Cycle Bottom: VanEck’s Perspective

Van Eck told CNBC that Bitcoin prices could gradually recover in 2026. He noted that in recent months, the main driver of BTC’s price was not the coin’s fundamentals but the four-year halving cycle.

“Bitcoin rose for three consecutive years and saw a major drop in the fourth. 2026 is that fourth year. I think we are close to the bottom. No need to overcomplicate it,” said Van Eck.

Analysts remain divided: some point to institutional ETF demand, macroeconomic factors, and regulatory developments, while cycle proponents maintain the classic model is still valid.

Geopolitical Tension and Market Reaction

The recent recovery coincided with rising geopolitical risks as the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. According to Van Eck, during such uncertain periods, crypto payment systems become critical tools for transferring funds outside the traditional banking system. The attacks undermined trust in local banks, leading funds to flow via crypto networks in Dubai and the UAE.

“In a potential Iran settlement, how will money be transferred? Regions like the UAE and Dubai are crypto-friendly. Using crypto instead of Iranian banks makes sense,” Van Eck explained.

Futures, Open Interest, and Institutional Activity

Demand for Bitcoin futures has dropped to its lowest since 2024. CME open interest shows that major institutions have not exited the market.

• After testing $63,000 on Saturday, BTC rose 10% to $70,000.
• Total futures open interest fell to $32 billion, down 20% from a month ago.
• Leverage demand has significantly decreased since the all-time high of $126,200 in October 2025.
• Options premiums are around 0.7, with put demand lower than call demand, indicating stable conditions aside from short-term stress.

Institutional Adoption Continues

Despite seemingly intimidating derivatives data, the other side is encouraging. While Bitcoin’s performance against gold and equities is low, spot BTC ETFs see average daily volumes exceeding $3 billion. Public companies such as Strategy (MSTR US), MARA Holdings (MARA US), XXI (XXI US), and Metaplanet (MPLTF US) hold over $79 billion in BTC on-chain.

Countries including Bhutan, El Salvador, and the UAE continue investing in Bitcoin, demonstrating that institutional adoption is far from zero and market confidence has not entirely eroded.

Bottom and Market Resilience

Although the absolute bottom of the current cycle is unclear, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and the $1.4 trillion crypto market demonstrate resilience. Despite selling pressure and geopolitical chaos, the ecosystem remains standing. Whether $60,000 marks the ultimate bottom will be revealed over time.

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VanEck emphasizes that as markets enter 2026, predictability is beginning to outweigh ambiguity. This shift is seen as a constructive development, particularly for assets that tend to benefit from stronger risk sentiment.

Greater Visibility on Fiscal and Monetary Policy

One of the key themes in VanEck’s outlook is the gradual stabilization of the US fiscal landscape. Although budget deficits remain elevated, their ratio to GDP has declined from the extreme levels seen during the pandemic period. This trend is contributing to a more balanced long-term interest rate environment.

According to the firm, improving fiscal discipline reduces the likelihood of sudden market shocks and allows investors to plan with a clearer medium-term perspective. At the same time, a more transparent monetary policy framework is helping markets better assess future conditions, reinforcing confidence across asset classes.

A Cautious but Constructive View on Bitcoin

VanEck adopts a measured stance when addressing Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The report notes that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, long used as a reference point by investors, showed signs of breaking down in 2025. As a result, short-term signals have become less reliable, prompting a more cautious outlook over the next three to six months.

That said, the firm acknowledges differing views internally, with some executives maintaining a more optimistic perspective on Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. This divergence reflects the evolving nature of crypto market dynamics as the asset class matures.

Risk Assets Poised to Benefit

The expectation of a “risk-on” environment is generally supportive for technology stocks, artificial intelligence-related investments, and digital assets. VanEck points out that Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from traditional markets such as equities and gold suggests it is increasingly trading on its own fundamentals.

Market observers note that price advances occurring in relatively low-leverage conditions, combined with signs of recovery from oversold levels, may provide a healthier foundation for risk assets moving into 2026.

A Clearer Path for the First Half of 2026

Following the volatility seen toward the end of 2025, analysts believe the market direction for the first half of 2026 has become more defined. With US midterm elections approaching, expectations of fiscal support and favorable regulatory developments could further strengthen the macro backdrop.

Under these conditions, VanEck suggests that Bitcoin and the wider crypto market may be well positioned to regain momentum, provided broader economic stability continues to improve.

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Bitcoin’s Potential Role in Global Trade

VanEck’s base case scenario envisions Bitcoin becoming deeply integrated into the global financial system over the next 25 years. Under this model, Bitcoin could settle between 5% and 10% of international trade, as well as about 5% of domestic trade worldwide by 2050. If this level of adoption is achieved, it would place Bitcoin alongside some of today’s major currencies in terms of usage for settling transactions.

This projected role reflects not only Bitcoin’s increasing acceptance in sanctioned countries that already use it for cross-border transactions, but also the possibility of broader adoption if global trade patterns and monetary preferences evolve.

Central Bank Reserves and Strategic Allocation

Another key component of VanEck’s outlook is the role of Bitcoin in sovereign asset portfolios. In the base case, analysts predict that central banks could allocate around 2.5% of their total reserves to Bitcoin by 2050. Holding Bitcoin as part of official reserves would mark a significant shift from the current dominance of traditional reserve currencies, and could contribute to Bitcoin’s acceptance as a hedge against currency debasement.

If realized, this allocation would help elevate Bitcoin’s share of all global financial assets to roughly 1.66%, further reinforcing its position as a mainstream store of value.

Bitcoin Price Targets and Growth Scenarios

VanEck’s report outlines three distinct price trajectories based on different adoption and macroeconomic outcomes:

• Bear Scenario: A modest growth environment with Bitcoin reaching around $130,000 by 2050, assuming a 2% compound annual growth rate.

• Base Scenario: The central forecast sees Bitcoin reaching approximately $2.9 million per coin, driven by adoption in global trade and reserve portfolios at a 15% annualized growth rate.

• Bull Scenario: Under an optimistic outlook where Bitcoin captures a greater share of trade and reserves, the price could soar toward $52.4 million with a 29% compound annual growth rate.

The base forecast, while substantial, is more conservative than earlier VanEck projections that assumed higher growth rates.

Comparison With Traditional Reserve Currencies

To put Bitcoin’s potential market share in context, data from the global payments network SWIFT shows that the US dollar continued to dominate global trade settlements as of late 2025, accounting for 47.8% of activity, followed by the euro at 22.8% and the British pound at 7.4%.

If Bitcoin were to capture 5% to 10% of such trade settlement activity, it would be roughly on par with the British pound’s current role. This comparison highlights how meaningful even a relatively small slice of global trade adoption could be for Bitcoin’s valuation.

Structural Drivers Behind the Forecast of Bitcoin

VanEck’s analysts pinpoint global liquidity growth, currency debasement concerns, and structural limitations of sovereign debt systems as key long-term value drivers for Bitcoin. They emphasize that Bitcoin, with its capped supply and decentralized monetary policy, has the potential to act as a hedge against adverse monetary outcomes.

While marketplace dynamics and short-term price action remain tied to liquidity cycles and leverage, the firm’s long-term framework suggests that Bitcoin’s convergence with trade and reserve adoption could shape its fundamental value over decades.

VanEck’s projection is not a prediction of guaranteed outcomes but rather an illustration of how Bitcoin’s role could evolve under specific adoption and macroeconomic conditions. As with all long-term forecasts, actual results may vary based on technology development, regulatory environments, and broader economic trends.

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VanEck: Downside Risks Are More Limited in This Cycle

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, stated that while the outlook for the crypto market as it enters 2026 is complex, it delivers generally positive signals. Sigel noted that Bitcoin experienced a severe correction of nearly 80% in the previous market cycle. However, the significant reduction in volatility since then suggests that a drawdown of similar magnitude is unlikely in the current cycle. In this context, a potential correction is expected to be limited to around 40%.

The report also points out that a large portion of this downside scenario has likely already been priced in by the market. With the current pullback having reached roughly 35%, the downside risk space appears to be narrowing, signaling a transition toward a more balanced pricing environment.

The Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact

VanEck analysts believe that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle structure remains valid following the peak seen in October 2025. As a result, expectations for 2026 are not centered on a strong bull market or a harsh bear phase, but rather on a period dominated by equilibrium-seeking and sideways price action.

The report also draws attention to global liquidity conditions. While expectations of interest rate cuts could support markets, tensions between heavy AI-related capital expenditures in the U.S. and fragile funding conditions may lead to wider credit spreads. This could place moderate pressure on liquidity.

Leverage Is Normalizing, On-Chain Data Is Improving

According to VanEck, following recent volatility, leverage levels in the crypto market have begun to normalize. Although on-chain data does not yet signal strong momentum, a gradual recovery trend is becoming visible. This suggests that the market is moving away from excessive risk-taking toward a more cautious and sustainable structure.

VanEck’s 2026 assessment does not lean toward extreme optimism or pessimism for Bitcoin. Instead, declining volatility, more limited downside risks compared to previous cycles, and the market’s ongoing search for balance indicate that 2026 could be a year of consolidation and direction-finding for Bitcoin. Overall, this points to an evolution toward a healthier and more sustainable market structure rather than sharp and abrupt price movements.

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JPMorgan Raises Its Target to $170,000

One of the most notable updates came from JPMorgan. In its latest outlook, the bank projected that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months. According to JPMorgan, recent market pullbacks should not be interpreted as structural weakness. Instead, they represent a healthy correction phase within a broader upward trend.

The bank highlights three primary forces supporting Bitcoin’s medium-term price trajectory: rising mining costs, tightening supply dynamics, and strengthening institutional demand. These structural factors, JPMorgan argues, continue to provide a solid foundation for higher valuations over time.

$180,000 Forecasts from VanEck, Standard Chartered and Fundstrat

JPMorgan is not alone in its bullish outlook. VanEck, Standard Chartered, and Fundstrat have all pointed to $180,000 as a realistic target for Bitcoin during the 2025–2026 cycle. VanEck emphasizes that growing depth in the spot ETF market is creating a stable institutional base for Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered, on the other hand, focuses on potential easing in global macroeconomic conditions, which could accelerate Bitcoin inflows into corporate balance sheets. Fundstrat founder Tom Lee believes that the combination of ETF demand and improving macro trends could ignite the next major bullish phase.

Strategy Maintains Long-Term Conviction

Among corporate Bitcoin holders, Strategy continues to stand out as one of the most committed players. CEO Michael Saylor remains firm on his long-term vision, arguing that Bitcoin is steadily evolving into a digital alternative to gold for corporate treasury management. The company’s ongoing accumulation strategy is widely interpreted as a signal that institutional adoption is still in its early stages.

Shared Themes Across Institutional Forecasts

Several common drivers appear consistently across institutional projections: sustained ETF inflows, rising mining costs tightening supply, increasing network difficulty and hash rate, and the possibility of looser global financial conditions in the 2025–2026 period. Together, these factors explain why price expectations are clustering in the $150,000–$180,000 range.

Overall, institutional sentiment toward Bitcoin is becoming clearer and more strategically long-term. The outlook for 2026 increasingly points toward the possibility of a new macro-driven bullish cycle led by sustained corporate and institutional participation.

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2026 May Be Weak, in Line With Historical Cycles

According to van Eck, while Bitcoin remains a strong long-term asset, its price cycles cannot be ignored. Bitcoin historically performs poorly in post-halving years, and this provides a clear signal for 2026:

“Every four years, we’ve seen the year after the halving underperform. It is highly likely that 2026 repeats that cycle.”

He added that it is natural for many investors to take profits after the peak recorded in October.

This Cycle’s Rally Is More Limited

Van Eck emphasized that Bitcoin’s performance in this cycle has been more subdued compared to previous bull markets. In his view, this suggests that the upcoming correction may also be less severe.

However, analysts highlight that several dominant factors remain in play:

• Global liquidity conditions
• On-chain activity and institutional inflows
• The direction of macroeconomic data

Therefore, the 2026 outlook is shaped not only by historical cycles but also by macroeconomic dynamics.

The Quantum Threat & Privacy Debate: Zcash Back in the Spotlight

Van Eck noted that quantum computing has become a major topic in discussions about Bitcoin’s long-term resilience. He warned that future quantum computers could pose a threat to current cryptographic systems.

As a result, some Bitcoin supporters are increasingly gravitating toward projects that offer stronger privacy and advanced cryptographic protections especially Zcash (ZEC). He stated that because of its privacy-focused design, ZEC is viewed by certain investor groups as a potential security alternative in a post-quantum world.

“If the Core Structure Breaks, We Step Away”

VanEck continues to advocate that Bitcoin should remain part of institutional portfolios. However, the CEO drew a very clear line:

“If Bitcoin’s core argument breaks, we step away from it. But today, we do not see any such breakdown.”

This statement reinforces institutional confidence in Bitcoin while also highlighting caution regarding future technological risks that could undermine the network.

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ETF issuers file new applications despite delays

Despite the shutdown, ETF issuers remain undeterred. Between October 18–25, six new crypto ETF applications were filed with the SEC, including:

• VanEck’s Lido Staked Ethereum (stETH) ETF proposal.

• 21Shares’ 2x leveraged HYPE ETF filing.

• Additional submissions for XRP ETFs and other leveraged crypto products.

This continued activity shows issuers are confident that approvals will accelerate once the SEC resumes normal operations.
Analysts expect that, once the shutdown ends, altcoin ETF approvals could gain significant momentum, fueling renewed optimism across digital asset markets.

Investor demand remains strong

Rick Wurster, CEO of Charles Schwab, described crypto interest among clients as “exceptionally strong.” Schwab clients now hold 20% of all U.S. crypto ETFs, demonstrating robust participation from both retail and institutional investors.

The company’s crypto-focused website traffic also surged 90% year-over-year, reflecting the growing appetite for regulated crypto exposure.
Experts suggest that, once the government reopens, XRP and Ethereum ETF approvals could trigger a major recovery across alternative digital assets.

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. shutdown may last up to 42 days, the longest in history.

• Six new crypto ETFs applications were filed despite delays.

• Schwab clients now own 20% of U.S. crypto ETFs.

• Altcoin ETF approvals could accelerate once the SEC resumes operations.

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Why is the Lido Staked Ethereum ETF Important?

This ETF allows investors to indirectly invest through staked Ethereum. This enables them to benefit from staking revenues on the Ethereum network. VanEck’s move is attracting the attention of DeFi and staking-focused investors and increasing liquidity in the Ethereum ecosystem.

You May Be Interested In: VanEck’s ETF Filing Sparks Curiosity in the Markets

Delaware Registration and Regulatory Assurance

VanEck has registered the ETF in Delaware and offers investors a secure, regulation-compliant investment vehicle. The state of Delaware has a strong legal framework for crypto and financial products. This allows the Lido Staked Ethereum ETF to be brought to market quickly and securely.

The ETF provides indirect staking returns and liquidity advantages for LDO token holders. While VanEck targets institutional investors, individual investors can also benefit from Ethereum staking advantages through the ETF.

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Leading Asset Managers File With the SEC

Geraci noted that heavyweight asset managers — including Franklin Templeton, Fidelity Investments, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and Canary Capital — have all submitted updated S-1 filings to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for spot Solana ETFs.
These S-1 filings serve as comprehensive disclosures, outlining company financials, associated risks, and the details of the securities to be listed.

The First Solana Staking ETF Already Live

The new wave of filings arrives just two months after the launch of the first Solana staking ETF in the U.S. The REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF, which debuted on the Cboe BZX exchange, registered $33 million in trading volume and $12 million in inflows on its first day.
Pantera Capital has since argued that Solana could represent the “next big institutional opportunity,” pointing to its relatively under-allocated status compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“Get Ready for October”

Geraci emphasized that October could be a pivotal month for crypto markets. Recent developments, such as the first Hyperliquid (HYPE) ETF filing and the SEC’s approval of new listing standards for digital asset ETFs, are adding momentum to the narrative.
Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Hunter Horsley revealed that the Bitwise Solana Staking ETP in Europe attracted $60 million in inflows within just five trading days, adding that “Solana is clearly on investors’ minds.”

Another flurry of S-1 amendments filed today on spot sol ETFs…

Franklin, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, & Canary.

Includes staking (yes, bodes well for spot eth ETF staking).

Guessing these are approved w/in next two weeks. pic.twitter.com/g13NDFKSEU

— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) September 26, 2025

Broader Altcoin Rally on the Horizon?

Analysts at Bitfinex have highlighted that a broad-based altcoin rally may not materialize until more crypto ETFs are approved, giving investors access further down the risk curve. Expanding ETF products could unlock significant demand for altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Positive Implications for Ethereum ETFs

The inclusion of staking in the latest filings is also viewed as a promising signal for Ethereum ETFs. Geraci suggested that approval of staking features in spot ETH ETFs would be a game-changer, boosting yields and reshaping investor demand.
Other industry experts echoed this sentiment, stressing that staking-enabled Ethereum investment products could dramatically strengthen the market and attract a new wave of institutional interest.

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The Future of Tokenization

Scaramucci, a former Goldman Sachs executive who briefly served in the White House during Trump’s presidency, told Fortune, “I basically see the period from 2026 to 2027 as the age of real-world tokenization.”

SkyBridge Capital plans to deploy its tokenized funds on the Avalanche blockchain network. According to crypto analytics provider DefiLlama, Avalanche currently holds nearly $2 billion in assets on its network.

Fund Structure and Crypto Investments

Scaramucci stated that the amount being tokenized represents about 10% of the firm’s assets under management. One of the two funds focuses on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that have not been classified as securities. The other is a fund-of-funds, which includes SkyBridge’s other investment vehicles, covering both venture capital and crypto funds.

Reducing Transaction Fees and Cutting Out Middlemen

Experts say offering investment funds on decentralized networks can reduce fees and eliminate intermediaries. In traditional finance, there are often multiple parties between buyers and sellers, each verifying the origin of the asset, which slows down the process and adds costs.

Blockchain is a decentralized database, meaning no single party can tamper with stored information. Theoretically, ownership and authenticity of a financial asset can be verified directly on the blockchain without a middleman. Users can check the details themselves.

Moves by Institutional Giants

Although the benefits of tokenization have been praised for some time, putting real-world assets on the blockchain is still an emerging trend—but it is gaining momentum. Financial heavyweights like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and VanEck have recently issued money market funds on blockchains such as Solana and Aptos. In the future, investors may be able to buy and transfer their stakes in various funds directly, without repeatedly calling banks.

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