volatility Archives - Coin Engineer

Is Recent Pullback of Bitcoin Setting the Stage for 2026?

Emre Yumlu — Wed, 24 Dec 2025 07:00:27 +0000

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the end of the year without delivering the explosive rally many investors had anticipated, sentiment across the market has turned mixed. While some see this lack of excitement as a disappointment, others argue that the absence of excessive price acceleration could actually be constructive. According to prominent Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano, a market that avoids overheating is less vulnerable to a severe collapse in early 2026.

Declining Volatility Flies Under the Radar

One of Pompliano’s key observations centers on Bitcoin’s volatility. He highlights that volatility has compressed significantly, yet this trend has received far less attention than short-term price movements. Historically, sharp volatility spikes have often preceded dramatic drawdowns of 70% to 80%. In contrast, today’s calmer market structure suggests that such extreme downside scenarios may be less likely, even if price action feels uninspiring in the short term.

1-year Bitcoin performance

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Performance Remains Strong

Despite failing to meet the most optimistic price targets, Bitcoin’s broader performance paints a different picture. Over the past two years, BTC has roughly doubled in value, while its three-year performance approaches a 300% gain. This steady compounding underscores Bitcoin’s resilience as a long-term asset. From this perspective, missing a speculative peak does not negate its role as one of the strongest performers in global financial markets over recent years.

No Blow-Off Top, No Brutal Crash

Many market participants expected a classic “blow-off top” toward the end of the third quarter or the start of the fourth quarter. That scenario never materialized. However, Pompliano emphasizes that the lack of a euphoric peak also meant avoiding the equally familiar aftermath: a massive collapse. In past cycles, parabolic rallies were often followed by devastating corrections. This time, the market’s moderation may have acted as a stabilizing force.

Diverging Outlooks for 2026

While Pompliano leans toward a more balanced outlook, not all analysts share his confidence. Some experienced traders believe Bitcoin could face renewed pressure in the coming years. Veteran chartist Peter Brandt has suggested that BTC could revisit the $60,000 region by the third quarter of 2026. Similarly, Fidelity’s global macro research team has floated the idea that 2026 could represent a consolidation phase, with prices potentially drifting toward $65,000.

Less Hype, More Structural Strength

The current environment may feel underwhelming to investors chasing dramatic upside. However, reduced excitement can also translate into greater structural durability. Without extreme speculation driving prices, Bitcoin may be building a foundation that limits severe drawdowns. In this sense, the market’s restraint today could be quietly preparing Bitcoin for a more sustainable trajectory into 2026 and beyond.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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How Deep Could Bitcoin (BTC) Fall

Emre Yumlu — Tue, 02 Dec 2025 08:00:15 +0000

Recent volatility Bitcoin has revived an old question: just how far can the current correction extend? While some market commentators warn that BTC could revisit the $35,000 range, others argue that such a dramatic decline is neither likely nor technically supported. New analysis based on historical behavior and key indicators points toward a shallower downside.

Why a Drop to $35,000 May Be Unrealistic

Sharp corrections are nothing new for Bitcoin. During the previous cycle, BTC plunged from its $69,000 peak in late 2021 to around $15,500 the following year, marking a drawdown of roughly 77%. However, according to analyst “Sykodelic,” the structure of the current cycle does not resemble that period.

The analyst explains that major retracements typically follow exceptionally strong expansion phases, which can be measured through indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI). In this cycle, Bitcoin never reached the kind of overheated momentum that preceded previous deep contractions. Because of this, a 70%–75% decline appears inconsistent with present market conditions.

At the moment, BTC is down about 31% from its October high near $126,000—an entirely ordinary pullback during a broader uptrend.

Bollinger Bands Signal a Higher Market Floor

A key element of the bullish argument comes from long-term Bollinger Band analysis. Historically, Bitcoin has never closed below the lower band on the monthly timeframe. Even during the intense volatility of 2017, BTC did not break beneath this level.

Based on this pattern, Sykodelic argues that even in a severe downturn, the downside may be limited. If the monthly candle slips under the midline, the analyst identifies $55,000 as the most extreme potential bottom.

Analysts Expect a Shallower Correction

Other experts take an even milder view. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at CoinEx, believes a move to $55,000 is unlikely, citing structural changes in the market. With deeper liquidity, ETF involvement, and broader institutional participation, Ko argues that the old 70%–80% drawdowns are no longer a reasonable expectation. His bearish scenario sees Bitcoin retesting only the $65,000–$68,000 region.

The Critical Support Zone to Watch

Still, not all observers are optimistic. Augustine Fan of SignalPlus warns that losing the support band around $72,000–$75,000 could trigger significant stop-loss cascades and unpredictable market stress due to leveraged positions.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, having partially recovered from a brief dip toward $84,000 earlier in the week. While opinions differ on how low BTC might fall, many analysts agree that today’s market structure is fundamentally stronger than in previous cycles—potentially setting the stage for a more controlled correction rather than a catastrophic capitulation.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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Are Bitcoin November Gains Misleading? Analysts Warn Investors

Yeliz Akmaca — Wed, 19 Nov 2025 09:00:46 +0000

Bitcoin November gains have long been seen as a reliable historical trend, yet this year’s performance has raised serious questions. The cryptocurrency slipped sharply over the past week and briefly dipped below the 90,000-dollar mark, weakening confidence in the idea that November is traditionally Bitcoin’s strongest month. Although the price recovered slightly, overall sentiment remains cautious as volatility continues to increase.

Why Past November Gains May Not Reflect Today’s Market

For years, Bitcoin’s November averages appeared unusually strong due to several extreme outlier months that pushed the historical data higher. Analysts now argue that these inflated averages no longer provide an accurate benchmark. This season’s market conditions are shaped by delayed macroeconomic data, shifting inflation expectations and renewed uncertainty around rate cuts. As a result, comparing previous cycles with the current backdrop offers little practical guidance.

Confidence in a near-term monetary policy shift has also weakened, which limits the impact of traditional seasonal patterns. With expectations for a December rate cut falling, risk appetite across crypto markets has cooled. This environment makes it harder for Bitcoin to repeat the aggressive November rallies seen in earlier years.

Analysts See Early Signs of a Potential Stabilization

Despite the broader pullback, several analysts believe BTC may be approaching a short-term floor. Selling pressure appears to be easing and market behavior suggests that a local bottom could form if weaker hands continue to exit. Some analysts also note that the seasonal momentum typically associated with November could shift into December instead.

For Bitcoin to reclaim a stronger bullish tone, experts highlight the 97,000 to 100,000-dollar band as the first meaningful resistance zone. Sentiment is expected to stay defensive until this range is retested. Even so, analysts maintain that recoveries in crypto markets can form quickly once broader macro conditions stabilize.

Key Points

• Historical November averages are inflated by extreme outlier years
• Macro uncertainty lowers the reliability of seasonal Bitcoin trends
• Selling pressure is easing and a potential bottom may be near
• The 97k–100k region remains the next major resistance level

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Crypto and Markets Eye PCE Data: What Are Rate Expectations?

Yeliz Akmaca — Fri, 22 Aug 2025 12:00:45 +0000

Crypto market volatility shows investors’ confidence in a September Fed rate cut is weakening. Recent FOMC minutes revealed most members view inflation risks as heavier than the labor market weakness. U.S. PPI rose 0.9% in July, pushing core PPI to 3.7%. Meanwhile, institutions and investors lost confidence in a Fed rate cut this September.

Prediction markets like Kalshi indicate declining bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut while wagers on unchanged rates are increasing. Currently, 68% of investors expect a 25-basis-point cut in September, though this share is decreasing. Conversely, 34% predict no change in Fed rates. This trend adds uncertainty to the markets.

CME FedWatch shows a 79% chance for a 25-basis-point cut in September. Down from 99%, investors now expect two rate cuts this year instead of three. This shift encourages more cautious market behavior and delays investment decisions.

Investors Await PCE Data While Bitcoin Holds Support

Crypto investors closely monitor the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE data. In June, U.S. PCE inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year, exceeding May’s upwardly revised 2.4% estimate. These figures will be crucial for the Fed’s September decisions, with results scheduled for August 29.

Bitcoin finds support near $112,000, and analysts suggest buying on dips. Michael van de Poppe notes that BTC follows classical price movements. He recommends accumulating if prices fall below $110,000. Rekt Capital recalls Bitcoin fell 29% in 2017 and 25% in 2021. Over the last 24 hours, BTC dropped 0.31% to $112,892. Trading volume fell 10%, signaling reduced investor interest.

This uncertainty and volatility affect global markets and encourage cautious investor behavior. All eyes remain on the August 29 PCE release. Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, alongside the DXY dollar index hitting 98.34, continue to influence market dynamics.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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BTC & ETH Options Report: Will the Bull Run Continue?

Yeliz Akmaca — Fri, 22 Aug 2025 11:00:19 +0000

This week, significant movements occurred in the Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options markets. Nearly $5 billion worth of options contracts expired. This amount accounts for 8% of the total open interest, which is low compared to historical averages.

BTC Options

Expiry: August 22, 2025
Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.66
Max Pain Level: $118,000
Notional Value: $3.82 billion
Expired Contracts: 34,000

BTC’s short-term implied volatility (IV) rose above 35%, showing a strong recovery. This indicates high market expectations for price fluctuations.

ETH Options

Expiry: August 22, 2025
PCR: 0.46
Max Pain Level: $4,250
Notional Value: $950 million
Expired Contracts: 220,000

ETH’s main-term IV stayed below 70%, while short-term IV rose above 80%, reflecting increased volatility expectations.

BTC and ETH traded near historical highs this week, with a market theme of price correction. Investor sentiment remained relatively optimistic. Additionally, recent block trades occurred in both bullish and bearish positions, creating clear divergence in the options market.

BTC Options Scenarios and Macro Impacts

According to Deribit price trends, five BTC price ranges show option imbalances:

$105,000–$110,000: Call options $210M, put options $2.66B. Accordingly, put options hold a $2.45B advantage.
$110,100–$114,000: Call $420M, put $1.94B. In this range, puts are $1.5B more favorable.
$114,100–$116,000: Call $795M, put $1.15B. As a result, puts have a $360M advantage.
$116,100–$118,000: Call $1.3B, put $830M. Accordingly, calls hold a $460M advantage.
$118,100–$120,000: Call $1.7B, put $560M. In this case, calls are $1.1B more favorable.

For bullish strategies to gain momentum, BTC must surpass $116,000 by August 29. However, the most critical level is $114,000, where bears are highly motivated to push prices down.

Macro Factors and Market Pressure

FED decisions and technology stock pressures will play a key role in BTC’s direction. Morgan Stanley warned that large tech companies may have limited capacity for share buybacks. Meanwhile, cautious equity markets increase investor concerns. Worries about the AI sector, combined with options market activity, could affect BTC’s short-term performance.

BTC options expirations and macro pressures from the tech sector will determine whether the bull run has truly ended. At the same time, this situation may only represent a temporary pause.

The options market continues to price future volatility strongly. Additionally, max pain levels and PCR ratios remain crucial indicators for short- and mid-term strategies.

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Bitcoin ETFs Attract $1.3B in Inflows Despite Geopolitical Chaos

Yigit Taha OZTURK — Sun, 15 Jun 2025 10:00:32 +0000

Markets may be shaken, but investor conviction remains solid. Amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin is holding strong near $105,000, with institutional capital flooding in through ETFs.

Five-Day Inflow Streak Signals Investor Confidence

Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight days of inflows starting June 9, with over $1.3 billion entering the market. According to Farside Investors, Friday alone saw $301 million in net inflows, signaling robust confidence in Bitcoin despite recent shocks.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

While the cryptocurrency briefly dropped 3% following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, it bounced back quickly from $103,000 to hover around $105,000 — reflecting market resilience under pressure.

Falling Dollar Boosts Bitcoin’s Outlook

Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau emphasized the macroeconomic view: “It’s not geopolitics, but the U.S. dollar index (DXY) that truly drives Bitcoin. With DXY falling below 100 — a three-year low — Bitcoin stands to benefit.”

Still, the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could trigger short-term price shocks across risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

New Highs on the Horizon?

Despite global uncertainty, Bitcoin is trading just 6% below its all-time high of $112,000, reached on May 22. This resilience has analysts predicting that a breakout could be imminent.

As macroeconomic instability grows and trust in traditional finance weakens, capped-supply assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

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Bitcoin Reacts to War News: Key Support Lost, What’s Next?

Yigit Taha OZTURK — Fri, 13 Jun 2025 13:00:20 +0000

As global tensions rise, the crypto market has not remained immune. Following yesterday’s war-related headlines, Bitcoin broke a key support level, triggering high volatility across the board.

Support Lost, Rebound Faces Resistance

BTC lost the $106,400 – $105,328 support zone after a sharp drop. The long wicks seen during the decline suggest intense selling pressure. Although price is currently attempting a recovery, it appears to be facing resistance, limiting further upside.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $106,400 zone, the next support to watch will be around $101,466. This level could play a decisive role in determining the short-term direction.

Break Above Resistance Could Reopen Path to $108,000

If the price can reclaim and maintain a position above the broken resistance, a renewed move toward the $108,000 level becomes technically possible.

Given the current instability in both global and crypto markets, caution remains key. Traders are advised to manage risk carefully and stay alert to rapid market shifts.

BTC/USDT pair 4-hour chart.

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Bitcoin Sees Sharp Correction: Key Support Levels in Play

Yigit Taha OZTURK — Fri, 23 May 2025 13:30:12 +0000

After testing its all-time high, Bitcoin has encountered a strong wave of selling pressure following recent news developments. The market is now watching closely, as the asset hovers near critical support levels on the 4-hour chart.

Key Support Zones Under Pressure

According to technical analysis, Bitcoin needs to hold above 106,506$ to maintain bullish momentum. The zone between 105,954$ – 105,368$ is particularly important for continued upside. A breakdown from this range could open the door to a deeper retracement.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Analysts warn that in the event of further downside, BTC may revisit the 102,459$ – 101,666$ support zone, which could act as a potential reversal area.

BTC/USDT pair 4-hour chart.

Strategic Caution for Traders

Traders are advised to be vigilant during these volatile conditions. Employing stop-loss strategies and closely monitoring price action are essential in protecting capital.

With Bitcoin, post-correction recoveries are not uncommon, but staying informed with both technical and on-chain data remains key for making sound decisions.

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Why are Bitcoin, ETH, XRP, and DOGE Dropping Today?

Yeliz Akmaca — Mon, 19 May 2025 11:00:44 +0000

The crypto market is undergoing a sharp decline. Bitcoin (BTC) price fell from $107,114 to $102,579. This drop is also affecting Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Dogecoin (DOGE) prices. In the last 24 hours, $651 million in positions were liquidated. Bitcoin has gained approximately $12,000 in value so far in May. It rose from $94,000 to above $106,000, then retreated to around $102,000.

Reasons for Bitcoin Price Crash

Firstly, Bitcoin encountered technical resistance. Last week, BTC, which surpassed the high of $105,663, succumbed to heavy selling pressure. This led to a 4.23% price drop. CoinGlass data shows that $84.68 million of liquidations came from short positions, with $50.96 million from shorts. Additionally, Bitcoin’s volatility is at a 10-month low, making investors cautious. A bearish engulfing candlestick erased Sunday’s 3.23% gain. The critical support level stands out at $101,000. The volatility being at a 10-month low is keeping investors cautious.

QCP Capital believes digital assets have more room for recovery. The expectation is particularly strengthened by Coinbase’s inclusion in the S&P 500 on May 19. Swissblock analysts observed that Bitcoin collected liquidity above the $104,000-$106,000 resistance range but failed to break out of this zone. Swissblock expects a decline if the price fails to hold the $101,500-$102,500 range. Based on historical on-chain volume and transaction data, analysts identify the $97,000-$98,500 range as a significant downside target.

Altcoin Decline and Future Expectations

Altcoins show high correlation with Bitcoin. Therefore, BTC’s crash hit ETH, XRP, and DOGE. Ethereum lost 8.76%, XRP 5.31%, and DOGE 9.11% in the last 13 hours. However, the overall outlook remains bullish. Bitcoin targets of $118,000 and $135,000 seem feasible. As a result, the $100,300 to $99,800 range should be watched as a support zone. Investors expect a slowdown in these levels.

**NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE**

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Economic Calendar and Important Developments This Week

Yeliz Akmaca — Mon, 19 May 2025 10:22:31 +0000

As a busy week begins on the US economic calendar, Bitcoin recorded its highest weekly close in history at around $106,500. However, global economic uncertainties and critical data releases raise questions about the sustainability of this momentum. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $103,000. US-China trade talks, Fed policies, and developments in altcoin projects could increase volatility in the crypto market. Here are the key news events that may impact the crypto market from May 19 to 25, 2025:

May 19, Monday

Coinbase was included in the S&P 500 index on May 19, 2025.
Eurozone annual inflation rate announced at 2.2%.
(Expected: 2.2%, Previous: 2.2%)

May 20, Tuesday

Pyth Network (PYTH) unlock event to take place.
Unlocked amount: 2.13 billion tokens
Value: $333.86 million
Market cap ratio: 58.3%

May 21, Wednesday

Solana (SOL) developer conference. New ecosystem projects or partnerships may support SOL price.
S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI Preliminary Data (May 2025). These figures will reflect economic activity in the US. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 50.2 to 50.5, Services PMI from 50.8 to 51.0.

May 22, Thursday

Bitcoin Pizza Day event.
Gala dinner hosted by US President Donald Trump, exclusively for the largest 220 $TRUMP coin holders.
12:30 (UTC): US Unemployment Claims. (Expected: 227k, Previous: 229k).

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