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Fed Officials Signal Rate Cuts: What Are Markets Expecting?

Emre Yumlu — Thu, 16 Oct 2025 12:15:41 +0000

Federal Reserve officials have reignited discussions around potential interest rate cuts, setting the stage for the upcoming FOMC meeting at the end of October. Recent remarks from key members suggest that a more accommodative monetary policy could be on the horizon, fueling new optimism in financial markets.

Waller: “A 25 Basis Point Cut Is on the Table”

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a 25 basis point rate cut could be a realistic option. Highlighting ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook, Waller stated, “We can take a small step and see what happens to get a better sense of direction.”
He also noted that internal Fed discussions are progressing smoothly and that there has been little change in the overall economic picture. “Lowering rates seems like the right move; not much has changed in the last six weeks,” he added, signaling support for a cautious easing approach.

Miran: “The Disinflation Process Has Begun” So Rate Cuts?

Meanwhile, Fed official Miran expressed confidence that the U.S. economy is entering a period of meaningful disinflation. “We expect to see a significant disinflation process over the next year,” Miran said. He further suggested that two more rate cuts this year would be a realistic scenario, reinforcing expectations that the Fed is gradually pivoting away from its tight policy stance.

Markets Price in an October Rate Cut

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are overwhelmingly betting on a 0.25% rate cut at the October 29 meeting, assigning it a 96.7% probability. The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged stands at only 3.3%.

These projections make it clear that investors are already pricing in a rate cut, with market sentiment leaning strongly toward monetary easing. With just 13 days left until the next FOMC meeting, all eyes are now on how the Fed will balance its commitment to price stability with growing pressure to support economic momentum.

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Fed’s Christopher Waller: “A Rate Cut Should Come at the Next Meeting”

Emre Yumlu — Wed, 03 Sep 2025 13:30:52 +0000

Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Waller shared important insights in an interview with CNBC, highlighting his views on monetary policy, inflation, and the broader economic outlook. His remarks signal a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term, a message markets have been closely anticipating.

A Clear Signal for the Next Meeting to Rate Cuts

Reiterating his earlier stance, Waller stated that the Fed should move ahead with a rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting. He also suggested that multiple rate reductions could follow in the months ahead, depending on economic data.

Flexibility in the Pace of Cuts

Waller emphasized that the Fed does not need to stick to a rigid pace when adjusting interest rates. “We can always recalibrate the speed of cuts,” he explained. This underscores the central bank’s data-driven approach, allowing it to adapt policy in response to evolving conditions.

Concerns Over the Labor Market

Another key point raised by Waller was the recent softening in the labor market. He stressed that the Fed must act to prevent further deterioration, highlighting the central bank’s dual mandate of maintaining price stability while supporting employment.

Inflation Outlook for Rate Cuts

While acknowledging that inflation could see slight upward moves in the short term, Waller dismissed concerns of a lasting rebound. He expects inflation to move closer to the Fed’s 2% target over the next six months, reinforcing confidence in the current policy path.

Growth Expectations: Slowdown, Not Recession

Waller ruled out the likelihood of a recession but noted that U.S. economic growth is likely to decelerate. He also argued that while tariffs may weigh on growth this year, they are unlikely to create long-term inflationary pressures.

Addressing Fed Chair Speculation

Finally, Waller clarified that he has had no discussions regarding the possibility of becoming Fed Chair, putting an end to speculation surrounding his potential candidacy.

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Fed Tensions Grow: Support for Trump’s Rate Cut Push Increases

Emre Yumlu — Fri, 22 Aug 2025 13:30:09 +0000

U.S. President Donald Trump is intensifying his pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during his second term. While Fed officials have usually resisted his calls, the July FOMC minutes revealed a rare split. Out of 12 governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted in favor of lowering rates — the sharpest disagreement within the Fed in 30 years.

What the FOMC Minutes Reveal?

On August 20, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released its July meeting notes, highlighting concerns about new tariffs potentially fueling U.S. inflation. Policymakers debated whether tariffs would cause a short-term price shock or a longer-lasting inflationary cycle, but no consensus was reached.

Most governors agreed to keep rates steady in the 4.25%–4.5% range, prioritizing price stability even though unemployment saw a slight decline.

The Biggest Disagreement in Decades

Bowman and Waller’s stance to cut rates created notable friction within the central bank. Bowman argued that if temporary tariff effects are excluded, inflation is already near target — while the labor market is clearly slowing. She added that high rates were dragging down economic growth in 2025 and risked fueling unemployment.

Pressure on Jerome Powell

Trump’s attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell have been ongoing. On social media, he repeatedly insulted Powell and even floated the idea of removing him from office. However, as the Fed is an independent institution, firing Powell would require Supreme Court involvement. His current term ends in May 2026.

Who Could Replace Powell?

As Powell’s term nears its end, speculation over his successor is heating up. Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard confirmed discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, noting that rates should be cut by 100 basis points in 2026. While aligned with Trump’s stance, Bullard stressed the importance of maintaining the Fed’s independence.

Another strong candidate is Christopher Waller, who already voted for a rate cut and is praised for his accurate inflation forecasts. Other names include National Economic Council head Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and economist Marc Sumerlin — all critics of the Fed’s high-rate policy.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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Important Statements from Waller on Interest Rate Cuts!

Tanju Akbıyık — Tue, 15 Oct 2024 17:00:28 +0000

Recently, the markets have been carefully following the statements of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding interest rate cuts. In his statements, Fed member Christopher Waller displayed a cautious approach regarding interest rate cuts. Waller pointed out that uncertainties in the economy continue and emphasized the need to be careful against possible fluctuations in the markets.

Waller stated that the timing and size of interest rate cuts should be carefully evaluated. Especially in an environment where inflation is not declining, sudden interest rate cuts may have undesirable consequences. This situation poses risks for the future of the economy.

Waller also pointed out that the Fed’s interest rate policies should be consistent with the broader economic outlook. If high inflation persists, there should be no rush to cut rates, he said. She emphasized that the Fed should carefully monitor developments in the economy and inflation rates.

On the other hand, while some economists find Waller’s statements positive, others think that the Fed may need to cut rates further. However, Waller emphasized the importance of being cautious on this issue and stated that the markets should take this situation into consideration.

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