RSI Divergence and Historical Examples

The classic RSI divergence between February 15 and March 1 allowed Ethereum to rise 15% and reach a peak near $2,200. The current movement follows a similar technical pattern. However, on-chain accumulation and exchange outflows that supported the previous rise are not as strong this time.

Exchange Flows: Rising Inflows and Selling Pressure

On March 9, the exchange net position change turned positive, with inflows reaching 146,709 ETH. Rising inflows typically indicate that investors are moving coins onto exchanges, increasing the likelihood of selling pressure. Facing selling pressure immediately after this divergence is not a positive sign for bullish hopes.

Whale behavior has also shifted. Large investors reduced their holdings from 113.70M ETH on March 7 to approximately 113.61M ETH on March 10, a decrease of around 90,000 ETH. This combination shows that the current recovery lacks the accumulation support that fueled the previous 15% ETH price rise.

On-Chain Cost Data and Resistance Levels

URPD data shows that over 4% of Ethereum’s supply is concentrated between $2,030 and $2,180. These areas act as resistance where investors may sell near their cost basis.

• $2,130: The first critical level that must be breached for a strong move.

• $2,200: Psychological resistance that capped the March rise; 8-hour close here is important.

• $2,270: Next major supply cluster; must be overcome for sustained bullish momentum.

A drop below $2,000 could weaken the recovery thesis, and a further decline toward $1,910 would reinforce the overall downtrend. Ethereum must first surpass $2,130 to maintain bullish hopes. The next key hurdle is the psychological $2,200 level, which limited the previous March rise. A confirmed 8-hour close above $2,200 would indicate absorption of nearby supply clusters and open the path toward $2,270.

Short-Term Perspective

The current recovery appears technically valid. However, on-chain data, whale activity, and dense supply clusters suggest that the rally may face stronger resistance than the previous attempt. Can Ethereum overcome these barriers, or will selling pressure return?

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The main challenge is not only technical resistance but also uncertainty among major holder groups. Whales are selling, then buying back, and long-term holders, after months of accumulation, are slowing their buying. This lack of alignment keeps Ethereum in a narrow trading range.

Whales Sell and Buy Back

Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH sold approximately 1.3 million ETH between February 9 and February 12, roughly $2.7 billion in value. Yet, within the following 48 hours, the same addresses repurchased about 1.25 million ETH, around $2.6 billion.

This rapid back-and-forth creates liquidity without directional bias. As a result, Ethereum remains range-bound rather than trending decisively higher or lower.

Long-Term Holders Ease Off

Long-term holder metrics show that accumulation trends since December 2025 have slowed. In early February, long-term holders began modest distribution. This selling is not aggressive, but it signals reduced conviction.

Combined with mixed whale activity, bullish momentum is limited. Ethereum needs clear accumulation from these groups to push above major resistance levels.

ETH Price Stuck Near $2,000

Ethereum trades at $2,087, holding above the $2,000 threshold. The next significant resistance is $2,241. Without decisive bullish signals, consolidation is the most likely scenario. Ethereum may hover near $2,000 while defending support around $1,902. Sideways movement could continue until stronger directional conviction emerges.

Technical Outlook

Short-term, Ethereum avoided a new low, absorbed liquidity, and produced a breakout structure. The first upside target is $2,149. If price retraces to the $1,959 demand zone, reactive buying is likely. Should Ethereum reclaim $2,149 decisively, the next technical target could reach $3,050.

Currently, Ethereum remains above $2,000. Charts move, on-chain data whispers, but the market has yet to show strong conviction.

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According to SoSoValue data, inflows were heavily concentrated midweek. Wednesday alone saw approximately $844 million in net inflows, the strongest single-day demand recorded so far for spot Bitcoin ETF. Tuesday followed closely with $754 million in inflows. Toward the end of the week, sentiment softened. Friday registered roughly $395 million in outflows. Still, that pullback did little to offset the scale of midweek accumulation.

During the same period, Bitcoin traded around the $95,145 level. ETF absorption, however, pointed to a signal that extended beyond short-term price action.

Supply Tightens as Risk Dynamics Shift

Vincent Liu, Chief Investment Officer at Kronos Research, said recent ETF inflows indicate that long-term investors are returning after a period of caution. According to Liu, demand flowing through regulated vehicles is gradually tightening effective supply and altering the market’s risk balance.

On-chain indicators reinforce this view. Large holders—commonly referred to as whales—have significantly reduced net selling compared with late December. This easing has weakened a key source of distribution pressure that weighed on prices in recent months. Combined with steady ETF buying, the market is beginning to feel structurally tighter, even as volatility remains elevated.

That said, the picture is still fragile. Liu cautioned that current conditions should not yet be interpreted as a confirmed trend reversal. While renewed inflows and declining whale sales suggest the formation of more durable institutional demand, the shift remains in its early stages.

Related: Mixed Signals in Spot ETFs as Bitcoin Turns Negative

Ether ETF Demand Loses Momentum

While Bitcoin ETFs posted a strong showing, Ether ETFs experienced a more uneven week. Early sessions reflected solid demand, with roughly $290 million in net inflows on Tuesday and about $215 million on Wednesday. Momentum faded toward the end of the week, however, culminating in approximately $180 million in net outflows on Friday.

As a result, Ether ETFs closed the week with net inflows of around $479 million. ETH hovered near $3,314, but investor interest appeared notably less consistent than on the Bitcoin side.

Why It Matters

Capital entering through ETF channels reshapes market structure rather than merely driving short-term price moves. Persistent buying allows funds to absorb sell pressure during pullbacks, making sharp drawdowns easier to digest. This mechanism, however, only translates into a meaningful trend if inflows remain consistent over time.

Too Early to Call a Sustained Rally

According to Bitcoin macro intelligence newsletter Ecoinometrics, recent spikes in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have tended to trigger short-lived price jumps rather than sustained uptrends. When inflows slow, gains are often retraced. The publication argues that several consecutive weeks of strong ETF demand are required to shift the broader trend.

With cumulative ETF flows still deeply negative, isolated positive days may help stabilize prices but are unlikely to support a durable rally on their own. For now, the market offers no clear directional signal. Institutional capital may be returning, yet whether this marks a lasting shift will depend on the pace and consistency of ETF flows in the weeks ahead.

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As the week began, LIT repeatedly tested key support levels. This wasn’t just scattered profit-taking. The price action pointed to something more persistent than a short-lived panic.

The Post-Airdrop Balance Never Fully Formed

The real fracture appeared after the airdrop. The new supply dynamics never truly settled. A large portion of distributed tokens failed to stay parked on-chain for long, leaving the order book thin even during upward attempts.

Selling didn’t arrive in one wave. It came in intervals, steady enough to erode buyer confidence. That pattern explains why every rebound attempt faded quickly.

January 12 Delivered a Quiet Warning

Market commentary on January 12 shared a common note: momentum was weakening and volume wasn’t supporting price. It wasn’t an aggressive call, but it mattered. At the time, price still looked technically intact, which made the risk easier to ignore.

That disconnect created a fragile setup. Buyers stepped back. Sellers waited. The imbalance was already there.

Buyback Optimism Failed to Stick

In early January, Lighter announced a treasury buyback program directing 50% of protocol fees toward token repurchases. The move briefly lifted sentiment and pushed LIT toward the 2.89 dollar level.

Yet the recovery leaned heavily on large wallets rather than broad demand. On-chain data showed buying concentrated among a small group of whale addresses, while early investors continued selling into strength. The move never spread across the market.

At the same time, sector-wide capital rotation added pressure. The buyback was priced in, but it failed to evolve into a lasting narrative.

January 13 Was the Outcome, Not the Trigger

By January 13, the structure was already compromised. Support levels held visually, but real buyers weren’t defending them. A modest sell wave was enough to set off a chain reaction.

Thin order books, accumulated leverage and a lack of near-term catalysts converged. Liquidations followed, stops were hit and price moved down fast. The panic came after the move, not before it.

Why This Matters

What happened to Lighter isn’t unique. It highlights how quickly markets punish gaps between supply management and expectation control, especially in early-stage projects.

Product development may continue, but price doesn’t trade on potential alone. When timing is vague, liquidity is shallow and narrative runs ahead of structure, patience disappears.

What Comes Next

In the short term, the key question is whether selling pressure truly fades. Without sustained calm in on-chain activity, forming a healthy base will be difficult.

A clearly timed, measurable update from the team could still shift sentiment quickly. Until then, the market appears to have placed Lighter in a temporary holding pattern.

This move looks less like a sudden collapse and more like delayed price discovery. Whether that process has finished remains unclear — and for now, uncertainty is exactly what the market is pricing in.

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Exchange Balances Fall While Transfers Climb

At the start of the week, XRP Ledger saw significant activity. Transfers valued at $100,000 or more rose from 2,170 on Monday to 2,802 on Tuesday, marking a three-month high. This indicates active positioning by large investors and a potential for short-term price volatility. Analysts note that declining exchange balances reflect self-custody rather than panic selling.

According to Santiment, daily whale transfers are increasing noticeably. Separate data from CryptoOnchain show Binance’s XRP reserves fell to about 2.6 billion tokens, the lowest level since January 2024. Since late 2025, balances dropped from roughly 3.25 billion Ripple, usually reflecting holders moving coins off-exchange rather than preparing to sell.

Price Action and Technical Outlook

XRP was trading around $2.13 at the time of writing. The token briefly touched $2.40 earlier in the week before general market softening pushed it lower. Still, XRP is up about 16% over the past seven days and 14% in the last two weeks. Analysts highlight support near $2.27 as critical. Technical patterns in the XRP/BTC pairing suggest a relative strength setup unseen since 2018.

What It Means

Short-term price swings are likely, but rising whale transfers and falling exchange balances indicate positioning rather than panic. These dynamics suggest XRP may be preparing for wider price movements in the days ahead.

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According to SoSoValue, the total net assets held by spot XRP ETFs exceeded $1 billion last Thursday. At the time of writing, this figure stood at around $1.18 billion. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, highlighted that XRP ETFs have now surpassed earlier-launched Solana ETFs in total AUM, signaling stronger investor demand.

Why it matters?
This milestone shows that XRP is attracting more institutional interest than retail-focused tokens. ETFs now provide a regulated channel for wider participation, reducing historical barriers.

Institutional Demand Drives XRP ETFs

McClurg noted that Solana is more efficient to hold on-chain and stake directly, whereas XRP lacks staking but appeals to institutions. This creates stronger demand for ETF products, offering investors an easier access point. Some investors prefer holding XRP directly, while others favor regulated financial instruments.

Spot XRP ETFs have recorded uninterrupted positive net flows, totaling approximately $990.9 million. Currently, five asset managers—including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, and Canary Capital—offer spot XRP ETF products. Most recently, 21Shares launched its XRP ETF, TOXR, expanding investor access further.

ETF launches mark a turning point for XRP. Regulatory uncertainty had kept XRP out of traditional investment channels for years. Spot ETFs now allow broader market participation through regulated avenues.

$10 Billion Inflow Scenario

Analysts are optimistic about continued growth. X Finance Bull noted that only five spot ETFs exist currently, with major players like BlackRock yet to enter. Weekly inflows averaging $200 million suggest a possible $10 billion cumulative inflow by 2026. At this pace, over 5 billion XRP could be locked long-term, creating potential supply pressure. Institutions buy mechanically, while retail investors react emotionally to dips.

XRP Price Lags Despite ETF Growth

Despite strong ETF inflows, XRP’s price remains subdued. Over the past month, XRP declined nearly 13%, trading at $2.00 at press time, down 0.91% in the last 24 hours.

Market commentator Xaif Crypto noted that whales continue to lead the market, actively buying XRP as prices dip. Such behavior is often seen during market bottoming phases, when large investors accumulate ahead of potential trend reversals.

Whales tend to buy during price declines, not rallies, suggesting that current accumulation could signal a future uptrend.

Overall, the rapid growth of spot XRP ETFs highlights rising institutional interest. Short-term price movements remain muted, but long-term confidence strengthens as inflows continue. Whether this translates into an actual price rally or further downside will depend on upcoming market dynamics and whale activity.

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On-chain data shows that large holders continue to sell. Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC and those with 1,000–10,000 BTC remain net sellers, while smaller investors have also been gradually reducing their positions over the past 60 days. This leaves limited support for the market from retail participants.

Futures Stress and Market Pressure

Market observers note serious stress in Bitcoin’s futures markets. According to analyst Darkfost, long liquidations have reached levels not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022. October and November liquidation events mirror past crises, highlighting the market’s heavy leverage.

Meanwhile, mid-sized wallets holding 10–1,000 Bitcoin have been steadily accumulating, helping stabilize the price after the sharp drop from $106,000 to $79,500. Still, the ongoing distribution from large whales prevents a strong trend reversal.

Analysts Weigh In on a Possible Cycle Low

Analysts are divided on whether $79,500 marks a cycle bottom. Crypto Dan notes that short-term holders capitulated near $80,000, a pattern historically linked to local lows. Conversely, CryptoOnchain points out that long-term holders have distributed roughly 63,000 Bitcoin, signaling a transfer of wealth to newer investors.

Some commentators draw parallels with the COVID-19 crash, suggesting the market could recover without revisiting recent lows if momentum strengthens. However, other analysts warn that several bear-market signals are already visible, urging caution even if a final push higher is possible.

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ASTER Whale Deposits and Binance Activity 

On-chain trackers reported large ASTER deposits into Binance spot wallets. A small test transfer was followed by a major transaction worth $4.8 million. 

Investors believe this movement aligns with Binance’s method of testing token inflows and outflows before an official listing. CZ’s praise for ASTER further fueled excitement, pushing the token’s value up over 1,500% in a week. 

• Test and major transfers to Binance spot wallets 
• CZ’s approval and endorsements 
• On-chain data supporting listing speculation 
• ASTER DEX Success and Trading Volumes 

The new DEX platform quickly reached $42 billion in daily trading volume, surpassing $1 trillion cumulatively. Daily protocol fees hit roughly $15 million, outpacing competitors. Success on the exchange has also impacted derivatives markets. According to CoinGlass, open positions in ASTER rose 7.57% to $1.2 billion, reflecting strong investor confidence and speculative interest. 

Holy shit @binance is testing $ASTER withdrawals

You guys know what's coming.

The $3 dream is just the start pic.twitter.com/z3bvyxoFa2

— BagCalls (@BagCalls) October 2, 2025

High-Profile Investor Interest in ASTER 

ASTER has drawn attention from prominent investors and influencers. YouTuber MrBeast purchased approximately $320,000 worth of ASTER tokens. Blockchain data shows former President Donald Trump holds around $112 million in ASTER. These developments highlight the token’s appeal to both retail and institutional investors and its high market potential. 

ASTER’s rapid trading volume growth and investor interest, combined with Binance deposit activity, strengthen listing expectations. Investors and followers are eagerly monitoring the token’s future performance. 

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Despite the heavy sell-off, the whale still holds around 50,000 BTC. At current prices, that amounts to nearly $5.4 billion. This indicates a short-term hedging strategy rather than a complete exit. At the same time, the whale’s long-term confidence in Bitcoin remains intact. 

CryptoQuant data shows the BTC was not converted into stablecoins but sent to Hyperliquid. Analyst JA Maartunn confirmed that these assets were swapped directly into Ethereum. Moreover, the fact that the address belongs to a well-known, long-standing investor made the move even more significant. 

Historical Whale Activity and Market Impact 

Similar whale patterns emerged in past cycles. In both 2017 and 2021, gradual whale sales marked distribution phases that capped rallies. In 2020, certain whales shifted into ETH before the DeFi boom, while Bitcoin entered a consolidation period. This rotation allowed Ethereum to outperform. 

The latest whale shift reflects a similar outlook. Ethereum may capture short-term momentum while Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground. Meanwhile, gold prices surged to record highs as investors sought safer havens. U.S. monetary policy uncertainty continues to weigh on overall risk sentiment. 

On the technical side, Bitcoin charts display a golden cross signal. Under normal conditions, this is a bullish indicator. However, aggressive whale selling is overshadowing the signal. In addition, the move into Ethereum strengthens a cautious market tone. 

In the long run, this is not a total exit from Bitcoin. The whale still holds 50,000 BTC, underscoring long-term conviction. Yet, short-term capital flow favors Ethereum. This rotation signals a temporary momentum shift rather than a structural change in market dominance. 

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A New Era for Chainlink Price 

Chainlink shows strong accumulation signals as whale activity rises and LINK balances on exchanges decrease. According to Santiment data, 713 large transactions were recorded daily over the past five days. Meanwhile, LINK holdings on exchanges dropped by approximately 10%.

This decline indicates weaker selling pressure and growing accumulation by investors. On-chain metrics further support the upward momentum. Technical analysis shows LINK completing its fifth wave and approaching the $25 area. Analysts note that if LINK breaks $25, it could move directly toward $47. 

Community and Fundamentals Drive Momentum 

The Chainlink community and fundamental indicators are boosting investor interest. Google Trends data shows searches at a three-year peak, enhancing LINK’s popularity in the altcoin space. Chainlink’s decentralized data infrastructure acts as a bridge between blockchains and real-world assets (RWA). 

Moreover, the total value secured (TVS) has reached $93 billion, marking an all-time high. This reinforces LINK’s strong fundamentals. As long as the uptrend continues, major corrections are not expected. Technical strength, positive on-chain signals, and growing community interest are helping LINK confidently surpass the $25 level. 

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