Market Shock Absorber: Bitcoin

While traditional stock markets were closed, BTC emerged as the only 24/7 liquid market. On February 28, the price dipped to $64,000; on March 2 to $66,000, March 7 to $68,000, March 12 to $69,400, and during the Saturday Harg Island attack, buyers appeared at $70,500. In other words, each wave of selling was met at a higher low than the previous one. This pattern shows that sellers are tiring while buyers are waiting in ambush.

The most striking point is Bitcoin’s performance compared to other assets over the same two-week period. Oil prices have risen more than 40% since the start of the conflict, the S&P 500 remained in a downtrend, gold prices fluctuated, and Asian stock markets recorded their worst week since March 2020. Bitcoin, however, absorbed all this turmoil faster and outperformed other assets.

Critical Squeeze: $74,000 Barrier

Technically, a rising base formed between $64,000 and $70,000. Each negative news triggered selling, but at higher levels than the previous one. During the March 12 tanker attack, the price held at $69,400 and during the Harg Island attack, it did not fall below $70,500. The $73,000–$74,000 range remains a ceiling that has rejected the price four times.

Low Levels:

• February 28 First Attack: $64,000

• March 2 Retaliation: $66,000

• March 7 Continuous Conflict: $68,000

• March 12 Tanker Attack: $69,400

Clearly, this narrowing triangle is likely to break in one direction.

Macro Context and Resilience

Trump stated that Iran’s energy infrastructure was not targeted; however, if the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it will be reassessed. Iran continues to threaten retaliation on US-linked facilities. This conditional risk could lead to the largest supply disruption in history, according to the IEA.

Fortunately, the Bitcoin market has become leaner and more resilient after the massive liquidation wave in February. Weak hands have been eliminated; geopolitical shocks now fuel a stronger upward move rather than a destructive collapse.

Bitcoin is neither a fully safe haven nor a purely risky asset. When shocks arrive, it is the only traded asset that absorbs them faster than others, functioning as a 24/7 liquidity pool.

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High Bets, But Real Confidence Declines

The most popular February scenario remains above $75,000. On Polymarket, over $88 million has been wagered on this position. Yet, the likelihood has dropped below 50%. People are investing, but confidence appears slightly shaken.

Looking at February predictions on Polymarket, a massive $91 million volume is pricing a “below $60,000” outcome at 30%. This is quite significant. While the end-of-February $75,000 expectation remains popular, the probability dropping below 50% is notable. Some investors give the 2026 year-end $150,000 target a 12% chance, while a significant group positions for the short-term under $60,000 scenario. This clearly illustrates the market’s expectation gap: one side anticipates a rally, while the other lies in wait for a deeper correction.

Whale Activity: Who’s Doing What?

The whale front is also confusing; no one seems certain what to do.

• Major whales holding around 100,000 BTC added roughly 13,000 BTC—a cautious accumulation signal.
• Medium-sized whales holding around 10,000 BTC sold about 10,000 BTC during the same period.
• Long-term investors reduced selling pressure by 67%; actually, strong buying support has still not formed. This keeps Bitcoin hovering in the $64–65k range.

$72,000: Resistance Zone and Trap

Technically, the $72,600–$73,200 range is critical. Around 149,000 BTC has accumulated here. If the price approaches this level, breakeven investors may close positions. Current whale accumulation may not absorb this supply completely, making $72,000 a significant hurdle.

Actually, to understand why Bitcoin hasn’t risen, looking only at technicals isn’t enough; psychological resistance is at play as well. Unless $72,000 is conquered, selling pressure may persist, limiting upward attempts.

Technical Scenarios and Possibilities

Bitcoin reacted from $60,000 and tested $72,000 resistance but failed. It now trades in the $64–65k range. Constant support testing weakens the structure, actually.

If, by some miracle, Bitcoin maintains above $72,000, the OTE (Fib 0.79–0.705) zone between $86,700–$89,950 could be tested. However, within the current trend, these moves may remain short-term pullbacks; there’s no need to rush.

Market Divergence and Real-Time Pulse

Prediction markets still support $75,000, while on-chain data and large investor activity paint a more cautious picture. The under-$60,000 scenario remains possible at 12%.

This divergence shows a hesitant market; whales are accumulating, but some remain cautious. Actually, monitoring the market pulse is essential; the energy required for a major breakout is not yet in place.

This analysis reflects Polymarket data, recent whale movements, and Bitcoin’s last 12-hour price fluctuations to capture the real-time market pulse.

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On Sunday, the wallet transferred a total of 50,000 ETH, valued at roughly $145 million at current prices. The movement unfolded in two separate transactions, each totaling 25,000 ETH, executed within hours of each other.

A Wallet That Stayed Silent for Years

Blockchain analytics firm EmberCN identified the address as “0xb5…Fb168D6,” noting that it had remained inactive since 2017. At that time, the wallet withdrew approximately 135,000 ETH from Bitfinex, when ether was trading near $90.

The contrast is striking. What was once a portfolio worth just over $12 million has since appreciated dramatically, turning the address into one of the more notable legacy holders on the network.

Exchange Transfer Draws Attention

The latest transactions were sent to a wallet linked to Gemini, according to onchain data referenced by EmberCN and Arkham Intelligence. Transfers involving long-dormant wallets and centralized exchanges are often watched closely, as they can signal changes in portfolio strategy rather than routine internal reshuffling.

Following the transfers, the address still holds approximately 85,283 ETH, leaving a substantial balance untouched. The remaining holdings suggest the move represents only a partial repositioning rather than a full exit.

Old Wallets Stir Across Crypto Markets

The Ethereum activity comes as similar behavior has emerged elsewhere in the crypto market. Last week, a Bitcoin wallet inactive for more than 13 years moved 909 BTC, worth roughly $84 million, to a new address, reinforcing the sense that early-era holders are becoming more active.

Such movements do not always translate into immediate selling pressure, but they tend to increase short-term uncertainty as markets reassess supply risks tied to legacy holders.

Price Reaction Remains Measured

Despite the headline-grabbing transfer, market reaction has remained relatively contained. Ether fell around 2.8% over the past 24 hours to trade near $2,859 at the time of writing, while bitcoin slipped roughly 1.4% to $87,611.

For now, prices suggest caution rather than panic. Still, the reappearance of wallets untouched for nearly a decade adds another layer of tension to an already fragile market backdrop, particularly if additional transfers follow in the days ahead.

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Bitcoin Whale Inflows Signal a Strong Warning

On November 21, whales moved approximately 9,000 BTC to exchanges, nearly half from large wallets. This activity signaled that whales were preparing to sell, adding new pressure to the crypto market. Single-day transfers reaching 7,000 BTC further stressed the price.

“This indicates that investors and traders continue to sell Bitcoin in the context of the current price drawdown, putting further downward pressure on the price.”

CryptoQuant analysis shows that almost half of the BTC sent to exchanges comes from wallets holding 100 BTC or more. Single-day inflows of 7,000 BTC suggest whales are accelerating their selling preparations.

Meanwhile, the average BTC deposit in November reached 1.23 BTC, the highest level in the past year. This rise pushed exchanges back into a selling-dominated position. Coinbase reported that BTC fell to $80,600, the lowest in seven months.

Bitcoin exchange inflows are rising as the price drops to ~87K, a seven-month low.

Large deposits (100+ BTC) now make up 45% of all inflows, hitting 7K BTC on Nov 21.

Large holders are increasingly sending BTC to exchanges, reinforcing the current downtrend. pic.twitter.com/UpN4rAL0FH

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 26, 2025

Binance Stablecoin Reserves Hit Record High

Binance’s stablecoin reserves reached $51 billion this week, setting a new record. This accumulation indicates that investors are moving away from risk and keeping capital in waiting mode. BTC and ETH inflows on Binance and Coinbase together reached $40 billion, adding further pressure on the crypto market.

Analyst James Check noted that leverage remains high. He added that if BTC enters the $70,000–$80,000 range, it could clear remaining leveraged positions, indicating continued short-term volatility.

Altcoin Inflows Rise as Resistance Levels Are Monitored

Ether inflows increased but not as sharply as BTC. However, altcoins faced a strong selling wave, with many tokens returning to bear market lows. This trend shows low investor appetite and reduced trading activity on exchanges.

10x Research noted that Bitcoin’s tactical recovery from oversold conditions continues. Analysts identified $92,000 and $101,000 as key resistance levels. Remaining above $90,000 will be decisive for short-term price action.

Key Market Signals This Week:

• Whale inflows rose, boosting selling pressure.
• Stablecoin reserves reached record highs.
• Altcoin inflows increased, while prices weakened.
• The crypto market remains cautious.

This analysis clearly shows the relationship between Bitcoin whale inflows and market behavior. On-chain data continues to shape short-term trends. As whale activity increases, market pressure may persist, urging investors to remain cautious.

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Reports like U.S. Unemployment Claims, PPI, and Retail Sales influenced major investors’ decisions. CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn noted that whales monitored rising prices and adjusted positions. These movements signal changes in market sentiment. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s short-term price reacts directly to whale activity. 

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $124,474 before dropping 3.5% in the last 24 hours. This decline shows whales adjusted their positions. Long-term holders remain firmly committed. The HODLer Net Position Change metric indicates reduced selling pressure. This trend supports Bitcoin’s price stability and potential recovery. 

Bitcoin Support Levels and Potential Scenarios 

Bitcoin currently trades around $119,000, maintaining a critical support level. Recovering the $120,000 mark could push the price toward $122,000. However, increased selling pressure may drop Bitcoin below $117,261. A deeper decline could pull prices to $115,000, testing short-term market stability. As long-term holders maintain their positions, the probability of recovery rises. The recent ATH followed by a correction reflects normal market fluctuations. 

The BTC transferred to Binance offers crucial insights for market observers. Additionally, long-term HODLer behavior limits selling pressure. Meanwhile, investors continue monitoring economic data’s market impact. Ultimately, whale movements and long-term holder commitment play a key role in shaping Bitcoin’s price dynamics. 

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The post Why Are Whales Moving Bitcoin to Binance? Weekly Whale Watch appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Every dog has its day — woof woof $ETH pic.twitter.com/C84UeX3YUF

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 9, 2025

Symmetrical Triangle and Bull Flag Signals

The symmetrical triangle does not provide a clear directional bias. However, considering the 50% surge between May 8-13, this formation is turning into a bull flag. A bull flag predicts the continuation of an uptrend. Brandt’s chart emphasizes that Ethereum’s tightening price structure is ready to explode. 

Whales and Institutions’ Interest in ETH

Major institutions like BlackRock have started to recognize ETH’s potential. Whales are also turning to ETH amid recent market turbulence. Although Brandt was previously cautious about Ethereum, he now states that the long-term consolidation pattern could trigger a significant rally. In particular, his statement, “This consolidation pattern could support a moonshot,” is drawing investors’ attention. 

If Peter Brandt’s bull flag pattern materializes, a decisive daily candlestick close above the flag’s upper trendline will be required. This move would confirm a bullish breakout, with the target calculated by adding the length of the rally before the flag to the flag’s base. According to Peter Brandt’s hints, the theoretical Ethereum price target would be $3,611. 

On the other hand, on June 6, nine spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 6,819 ETH ($17.3 million). BlackRock’s iShares ETF (IBIT) recorded the largest inflow with 6,356 ETH ($16.13 million), holding a total of 1,513,131 ETH ($4 billion). However, the Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF experienced an outflow of 543 ETH. Grayscale Ethereum Trust and Ethereum Mini Trust lost 78 ETH and 2 ETH, respectively. Other ETFs recorded zero inflows. 

What Does Technical Analysis Say?

Ethereum (ETH) appears poised to finally break out of the bearish FVG zone it has been stuck in for days. If the daily close occurs above this zone, a strong rally toward $3,000 could begin after a retest. Today’s close is critical in this regard! However, if the level is not broken, the price will remain trapped in this zone, and up-and-down fluctuations will continue. Sharp moves could be seen this week; it’s worth paying attention to the close and volume. 

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In April 2025, SHIB futures open interest surged from approximately $97 million to $190 million. This increase indicates growing investor interest in future price movements. 

SHIB Wallet Count and Whale Movements 

In April, wallets holding at least $1 million in value rose by 14.5%, from 751 to 860. Large transactions (over $100,000) increased by 95.91%, with 18.51 trillion tokens transferred. CoinGlass data shows a 1.32% rise in open interest to $35.66 million, indicating strong investor engagement. A TradingView analyst noted that a $1 price target is unattainable, requiring a market cap of $589 trillion.

Token presents mixed signals from technical and fundamental indicators. The rise in futures open interest and whale activity suggests potential price movements. However, market volatility and regulatory uncertainties warrant caution. According to IntoTheBlock data, 85.22% of Shiba holders are currently at a loss, with only 10.59% in profit and 4.19% breaking even. This indicates that most investors bought at or above the 2021 peak. 

SHIB’s whale activities point to short-term targets of $0.000037–$0.000085. Medium-term targets of $0.0001–$0.001 are feasible, but $0.01–$1 is unrealistic. Bitcoin dominance and volatility pose risks to the price. 

Market Cap: Approximately $7.46 billion USD, ranking 18th–21st in the crypto market. 

Trading Volume: The 24-hour trading volume ranges between $110.7 million and $298.5 million USD, reflecting a 9.6%–104% increase compared to the previous day. 

***Not Investment Advice ***

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