According to Woo, the sharp decline observed during the early phase of the ongoing bear market may have occurred faster than expected. While the market environment remains uncertain, he suggests that such rapid downturns can sometimes create conditions for a medium-term rebound attempt.

In recent weeks, Bitcoin has traded in a volatile range, reflecting the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers to establish a clear direction. Woo’s analysis indicates that the market could be approaching a phase where a temporary recovery becomes more likely.

Resistance Emerging Around the $75,000 Level

Woo points out that Bitcoin has recently encountered a local resistance zone near the $75,000 mark. Although this level has proven difficult to break so far, several market indicators hint at improving investor activity.

In particular, the analyst highlights that capital inflows into the market have gradually begun to recover since mid-February. This trend may signal early signs of strengthening liquidity within the crypto market. Increasing liquidity often plays a critical role in supporting price movements, especially for assets known for their volatility.

If these inflows continue, they could provide additional momentum for Bitcoin to test higher levels in the near term.

Rising Risk Appetite Could Support Crypto Markets

Another indicator Woo references is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a widely used measure of expected volatility in financial markets and a proxy for investor sentiment.

Movements in the VIX suggest that market participants may soon become more comfortable taking on risk again. When risk appetite returns to broader financial markets, assets like cryptocurrencies often benefit from renewed investor interest.

Under such conditions, Bitcoin could experience stronger demand as investors allocate capital toward higher-risk assets with growth potential.

Potential Recovery Toward $85,000

Woo argues that the speed of Bitcoin’s earlier decline may have pushed prices down too aggressively during the initial stage of the bear market. Because of this, the current environment could allow for a corrective rebound.

In his view, Bitcoin may attempt to move toward the $85,000 level. This area is particularly significant because it roughly corresponds to the average cost basis for many short-term holders. As a result, it may act as an important technical level where selling pressure could re-emerge if the price approaches it.

The Bear Market May Still Be in Progress

Despite the possibility of a short-term recovery, Woo cautions that such a move should not necessarily be interpreted as confirmation that the market has reached its ultimate bottom.

Long-term liquidity indicators still suggest that Bitcoin could remain in the middle stage of a broader bear market cycle. Historical patterns show that after rapid price drops, markets often enter periods of consolidation where prices repeatedly test key resistance zones before establishing a more sustainable recovery.

For this reason, even if Bitcoin experiences upward reactions in the short term, the broader market outlook may still require additional time and data before a clear trend reversal can be confirmed.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Rather than focusing on immediate technical attacks, this scenario centers on how markets respond to perceived technological vulnerability.

Why Quantum Computing Is Seen as a Real Risk

Quantum computers are theoretically capable of breaking the cryptographic standards currently securing blockchain networks. If such capabilities were realized, private keys could be compromised, wallets could be accessed without authorization, and on-chain assets would face unprecedented risks.

Although quantum machines with this level of power are not yet operational at scale, investment in the technology is accelerating rapidly. Edwards emphasizes that the primary danger lies in market perception. Even without an actual breach, growing concern that Bitcoin is unprepared for quantum threats could undermine confidence and trigger aggressive selling pressure.

A Narrow Window for Action

Edwards believes the timeline is critical. In his view, Bitcoin should adopt quantum-resistant solutions no later than 2026. If the transition is delayed and uncertainty persists into 2028, markets may conclude that the network has fallen behind irreversibly.

Under such conditions, Edwards describes a potential downturn as the most severe bear market in Bitcoin’s history—one that could eclipse previous crises in both scale and duration. This assessment stands in contrast to more optimistic views within the industry.

Divided Opinions Across the Crypto Sector

Not all experts share this level of concern. Some argue that practical quantum threats remain decades away, giving blockchain networks ample time to adapt. Others point out that major financial institutions are already experimenting with post-quantum cryptography, suggesting a gradual and manageable transition.

Within the Bitcoin community itself, opinions remain split. Analyst Willy Woo has suggested that SegWit-based wallets may offer relatively safer long-term storage as an interim measure. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy chairman Michael Saylor has dismissed quantum fears as largely overstated and driven by narrative rather than near-term reality.

Technology, Timing, and Market Psychology

The quantum debate highlights that Bitcoin’s risks are not purely economic. Technological readiness, upgrade timing, and investor perception all play a crucial role in price dynamics. Even if a technical solution eventually emerges, delays or uncertainty could prove costly. The coming years may represent a defining period in determining whether Bitcoin can stay ahead of the next technological curve.

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Renewed Concern Over Quantum Computing

Quantum machines have long been viewed as a possible threat to modern cryptography. Their theoretical ability to derive private keys from public keys has fueled discussions across the crypto space, with some warning that this could expose sensitive user data and digital assets. Woo suggests a stopgap measure: transferring BTC to a SegWit address and waiting until the Bitcoin network adopts a security upgrade capable of withstanding quantum-level attacks.

SegWit, implemented on August 23, 2017, represented a major upgrade to the Bitcoin protocol and remains widely used today.

Why SegWit Could Offer Temporary Protection

Woo argues that contemporary address formats could be more susceptible to quantum computers. For example, Taproot addresses embed public keys directly into the address structure, which—if quantum computing advances—could allow adversaries to infer private keys more easily. SegWit addresses, on the other hand, reveal the public key only when a transaction is made, providing an additional layer of obscurity.

As Woo explains, security concerns have shifted: “In the past, securing your private key was enough. With quantum computers on the horizon, protecting your public key matters as well.” Earlier address formats effectively concealed the public key behind a hash, making it harder for even advanced computational systems to crack.

However, Woo notes a key limitation: once BTC is moved into a SegWit address, it should ideally remain there until a quantum-resilient upgrade is deployed.

Woo also emphasizes that Bitcoin held by ETFs, corporate treasuries or cold-storage custodians could be made quantum-resistant earlier, provided those institutions take necessary precautions. The dominant view among researchers is that quantum computing will not pose a real threat until sometime after 2030, and work on quantum-safe standards is already in progress.

Critics Push Back: “SegWit Isn’t a Real Solution”

Not everyone is convinced by Woo’s approach. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole, argues that SegWit alone will not protect the network, stating that Bitcoin urgently needs a protocol-level upgrade to prepare for quantum advances. Otherwise, he warns, the network could face serious vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, other critics believe quantum fears are exaggerated, highlighting the current technological limitations of quantum systems. Michael Saylor has dismissed the panic altogether, calling quantum alarmism a marketing strategy aimed at promoting quantum-themed tokens. Additional researchers point out persistent challenges in quantum memory, thermodynamics and computation stability, suggesting true quantum threats remain distant.

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LTH Metric Losing Reliability

According to Woo, the commonly used Long-Term Holder (LTH) metric—defined as Bitcoin held for more than five months—has become outdated and increasingly misleading. While the metric once provided valuable insight into market cycles, Woo argues that relying on it today risks distorting the true state of investor activity.

He emphasized that the recent price declines cannot simply be attributed to long-term holders selling. Although he acknowledges that some LTH investors have indeed been offloading BTC, Woo stressed that these coins are not creating excess supply. Instead, they are being rapidly absorbed by new market participants or transferred into the treasuries of institutional players.

Woo described this as a form of custodial rotation, where Bitcoin changes hands without causing destabilizing selling pressure. This shift, according to the analyst, reflects structural maturity in the market rather than weakness.

Potential Upside Within Two Weeks

In a separate update shared on X, Woo highlighted early signs of recovery in Bitcoin’s liquidity indicators. He noted that if this upward trajectory continues, Bitcoin could enter a new upward phase within the next two weeks.

For Woo, improving liquidity signals that the market is gathering strength. This upward momentum, if sustained, could set the stage for a breakout, marking the beginning of a new price expansion phase.

Current Bitcoin (BTC) Market Outlook

Bitcoin is currently trading at $103,438, reflecting a 1.81% daily increase. Price action shows the asset moving within a tightening range, suggesting a period of consolidation. On-chain metrics indicate that major holders remain steady, while the broader market appears to be preparing for a directional shift.

Maintaining levels above $100,000 is seen by many analysts as a key psychological threshold. With liquidity flows gradually improving, the likelihood of an upward move continues to grow. As a result, the upcoming two-week period could prove pivotal for Bitcoin, both technically and structurally, as investors watch for signals of a confirmed trend reversal.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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The Halving Cycle May No Longer Be the Main Driver

PlanB noted that Bitcoin’s history has largely been analyzed through the lens of four-year cycles tied to halving events, but he believes this framework is statistically weak. “Three cycles are not enough to build a reliable pattern,” he stated, emphasizing that there’s “absolutely no guarantee” the next market peak will arrive 18 months after the most recent halving.

Instead, PlanB suggested that Bitcoin’s next major top could occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, stressing that the average price levels over time matter more than short-term peaks or corrections.

A New Phase Yet to Begin

According to PlanB, the current market has not yet undergone a significant “phase transition.” He believes either a major upward move is still on the horizon, or Bitcoin has entered a more stable regime dominated by institutional investors, fund mandates, and portfolio rebalancing. In either case, PlanB considers the long-term outlook for Bitcoin to remain highly positive.

Long-Term Liquidity Takes the Spotlight on Bitcoin

Echoing this sentiment, on-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that the current market cycle differs from the previous one. During the last bull run, liquidity primarily came from short-term derivatives markets, whereas this cycle appears to be supported by stronger long-term spot liquidity.

Meanwhile, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent dip below $104,000 caused panic among investors who feared the start of a new bear market. Yet, the subsequent rebound helped ease some of those concerns — though sentiment remains fragile.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

In early Tuesday trading hours in Asia, Bitcoin’s price fell more than 3%, dropping to around $107,700 before stabilizing near the key $108,000 support level.

Overall, the crypto market remains highly volatile and cautious. Analysts agree that to sustain a new upward trend, Bitcoin will need strong fundamental drivers and renewed investor confidence in the months ahead.

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Instead, demand is being driven by institutions. For the first time ever, spot BTC ETFs recorded over $1 billion in inflows on two consecutive days.

Institutional Inflows Take the Lead

Bitwise’s Head of Research, André Dragosch, emphasized in a recent post that this latest rally is led by institutional capital. Google Trends data supports this, showing just an 8% increase in searches for “Bitcoin” compared to a 60% surge in November 2024.

You Might Be Interested In: Sonic SVM Research: Can New Stablecoins Shake Up the Old Order?

Analysts suggest that retail investors may believe they’ve already missed the opportunity to buy. As Lindsay Stamp commented, many see Bitcoin at $117K and assume it’s too late to enter the market.

Onchain Data Suggests Institutional Dominance

ETF data confirms this new narrative. According to Farside Investors, spot BTC ETFs saw a $2.72 billion inflow over the past five trading days. Analyst Willy Woo remains optimistic, claiming the rally has “plenty of legs left.”

With institutional actors leading the charge, the structure of the crypto market could be undergoing a fundamental shift — one where retail plays a smaller role than ever before.

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Rekt Capital’s Bullish Prediction 

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital paints an optimistic picture for the altcoin market. If the total market cap closes above $250 billion, it could reach $315 billion. This close could form a bottom for coins. Rekt Capital highlights that the correction is shallower than previous -69% and -85% declines. Furthermore, the $425 billion resistance level is weakening. Breaking this level could accelerate the rally. 

Bitcoin Dominance Declines 

Analyst Merlijn The Trader evaluates altcoin season expectations. A noticeable decline in Bitcoin dominance is observed, indicating capital shifting to altcoins. However, the analyst emphasizes that timing is critical. He warns investors against the risks of early rotation or buying at the peak. The right move could maximize gains. 

Willy Woo’s Insights 

On-chain analyst Willy Woo offers a different perspective. He predicts the altcoin market cap will reach $10.5 trillion by 2030. However, he claims Bitcoin dominance will exceed 90%. According to Woo, Bitcoin’s market cap will surpass $100 trillion. He notes that institutional players are leaning toward Bitcoin. For instance, companies like Metaplanet are rapidly increasing their Bitcoin reserves. Woo believes crypto venture capital will decline in favor of Bitcoin.

Ever wondered what the end game is for altcoins vs Bitcoin?

Altcoins: $10.5T
BTC: >$100T

Place your bets accordingly. Dominance will go >90%

Crypto VCs will be a thing of the past.

Buy BTC, invest in BTC infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/yuImgYx1Ep

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 12, 2025

The altcoin season presents opportunities for investors. Led by Ethereum, altcoins are rising. Bitcoin is heading toward $105,000. US-China trade deal talks are supporting this rise. Early or late moves carry risks. Investors should closely monitor market signals. 

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE***

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In a recent statement, Woo discussed what is needed for Bitcoin prices to rebound.

Woo explained, “When will Bitcoin recover? When weak miners capitulate, and the hash rate stabilizes.”

Woo highlighted the current situation as unprecedented, noting that the post-halving miner collapse has been unusually prolonged. He suggested that ordinals, which have boosted miner profits, could be a factor.

Woo took us on a journey through past recoveries. He recalled the 24-day hash rate recovery in 2017.

The 2020 recovery was a different story. Amid the chaos of the COVID-19 crash, recovery took just 8 days. During this period, many wealthy individuals on Wall Street took a break to recover. However, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor was an exception. Saylor actively purchased Bitcoin and encouraged his wealthy friends to do the same.

Today, the Bitcoin community is still waiting for miners to capitulate. So far, 61 days have passed, and the wait continues

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According to a post by Willy Woo, Bitcoin’s user growth curve suggests that the price could rise to $1 million by 2035.

In its early days, Bitcoin’s price did not directly reflect the number of users. Woo said, “BTC didn’t even have a price until it reached its 1,000th user.”

Price discovery for Bitcoin began with the establishment of platforms like New Liberty Standard and Mt. Gox, and a value began to be assigned to Bitcoin with the establishment of the Bitstamp exchange in 2011.

Woo said, “The price has fluctuated largely according to the increasing number of users since 2012.”

Based on blockchain data and studies on cryptocurrency exchanges, Woo estimates that there are currently 426 million Bitcoin holders and that this number will reach half a billion by October 2024.

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