Retail Fear Signals a Contrarian Move

On January 20, Santiment reported that XRP’s positive-to-negative sentiment ratio fell below 1.873, and it has continued sliding to around 1.794. This reflects growing pessimism among retail investors, who remain wary of the token’s short-term prospects. However, analysts view this extreme fear as a contrarian signal, noting that past patterns often show prices rebounding when sentiment hits these lows.

“Historically, high levels of bearish commentary tend to trigger rallies. Prices often move opposite to retail expectations,” Santiment noted.

The current decline comes as XRP struggles to stay above the $2 psychological level, intensifying bearish sentiment. Yet, this setup could present an opportunity for traders looking to buy the dip.

ETF Outflows Increase Short-Term Pressure

The decline coincides with $53 million net outflow from U.S. spot XRP ETFs on January 21. While this adds pressure, past data shows that ETF-driven outflows don’t always trigger extended drops and can sometimes create accumulation points.

Historical Patterns Suggest Possible Upside

Historically, when sentiment dips below 1.873, XRP has bounced. In early January 2026, XRP recovered from a Q4 2025 drop of 30%, surging 29% to $2.41. A similar pattern repeated later in January, showing that extreme fear often aligns with short-term price surges.

Why This Level Matters

XRP currently trades at $1.94, marking a slight recovery from its weekly low of $1.80, though it remains 7.5% down for the week. Market sentiment remains heavily fear-driven, but historical data indicates that such extreme pessimism often precedes short-term rallies. ETF flows and broader market conditions may delay this reaction, yet the setup remains noteworthy for active traders.

Analysts suggest monitoring key levels and sentiment changes closely, as a renewed shift in retail mood could trigger another bounce.

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Social Media Sentiment for XRP Turns Bullish

On-chain metrics and social analytics point to a noticeable improvement in how XRP is being discussed across major platforms. According to data shared by Santiment, the number of bullish comments recorded this week ranks as the seventh-highest level seen throughout the year. While XRP has moved within a $1.99 to $2.17 range recently, engagement levels remain elevated and closely aligned with price action.

“XRP’s bulls and bears continue to battle, and the asset is holding the $2.00 level for now. Sentiment across social media is generally bullish.”

Retail traders appear increasingly optimistic, particularly on Telegram, X, and crypto-focused forums. This behavior suggests continued accumulation even as price movement remains relatively stable. At the same time, LSI trend indicators show XRP returning to broader market conversations after a quieter period.

Continuous Inflows Into XRP ETFs Signal Institutional Demand

ETF activity provides an even stronger confirmation of sustained interest. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded more than $20.1 million in net inflows on Friday. This extended the positive inflow streak to 19 consecutive trading days. Cumulative inflows have now reached nearly $974.5 million, while total assets under management stand close to $1.18 billion.

Recent ETF flow behavior highlights several important dynamics:

• Most daily inflows are coming from U.S.-based ETF products

• Net outflows remain absent, even during lower-volume sessions

• Demand has stabilized following the strong inflow surge seen in November

This pattern suggests that XRP is increasingly being treated as a longer-term allocation within institutional portfolios rather than a short-term trade.

Ripple Builds Momentum Toward Year-End

Momentum on the Ripple side is also reinforcing XRP’s outlook. The company recently received approval for a U.S. national trust bank charter, marking a meaningful step forward in regulatory alignment. Around the same period, Ripple completed a $500 million funding round, supporting a valuation of approximately $40 billion.

Ripple’s continued expansion into stablecoins and financial infrastructure is broadening XRP’s potential use cases. When combined with strengthening social sentiment and sustained ETF inflows, these developments point to a more institutionally driven narrative emerging as the year draws to a close.

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The ongoing XRP lawsuit between Ripple and the SEC has reached another critical point. U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York rejected the joint motion for a ruling and settlement submitted by both parties. Hopes for a swift resolution have been temporarily delayed. 

Ripple and the SEC had requested the $125 million penalty be reduced to $50 million and certain obligations to be lifted. However, the court found that this motion was not properly filed. 

Court Speaks Clearly: Procedural Errors Determine the Outcome 

Judge Torres referred to Federal Rule of Civil Procedure 60(b). The parties failed to consider this rule in their submissions. This rule only allows exceptions under extraordinary circumstances. Therefore, the court stated it could not review the motion. Additionally, presenting the requests as a settlement did not simplify the process. The court emphasized its duty to consider the public interest. The parties’ expectations were not met. 

Defense attorney James Filan explained on social media that the decision was based on procedure. According to him, the requests were not rejected but were dismissed due to incorrect filing. Meanwhile, legal expert Fred Rispoli warned about the process ahead. He said Ripple and the SEC would refile their motion properly. However, this time, the court must be convincingly persuaded of the public interest. 

XRP Price Drops 

Following the decision, XRP experienced a sharp decline. Losing over 4%, XRP fell to around $2.45. Naturally, this caused anxiety among investors. The prolonged lawsuit has reduced short-term market confidence. Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, stated that the ruling does not affect the determination that XRP is not a security. He also emphasized that both parties agreed on the settlement and will revisit the court process. 

Legal analysts MetaLawMan and Bill Morgan also issued warnings. Both believe it has become more difficult for judges to overturn previous rulings. This means the case will become more complicated for Ripple and the SEC. 

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The hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair shows a breakout above the descending trendline at $2.2350.This breakout signals strong bullish potential. If XRP manages a close above the $2.250 resistance, the price could gain momentum toward the $2.30 level. According to recent reports, 700 million XRP have been locked in escrow. 

XRP Shows Fresh Bullish Signals 

After finding solid support near the $2.125 level, token resumed its upward move. The token broke through the $2.150 and $2.20 resistance levels, painting a positive picture. The price also moved above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the $2.359 swing high to the $2.125 low. 

With the breakout of the descending trendline near $2.2350, token now tests a strong resistance at $2.250. The first major resistance stands at $2.30, aligning with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the same move. 

If bulls push the price beyond $2.350, Ripple could next target $2.420 and $2.450. Continued bullish momentum may even drive the price toward $2.50 and possibly $2.650 in the short term. 

Key Levels to Watch If XRP Drops 

If XRP fails to clear the $2.250 resistance, bears may take control. Sellers could drag the price back to the $2.20 support level. A further drop might push it down to the critical $2.180 zone. 

A clear move below $2.180 could send XRP toward $2.120, followed by a potential dip to $2.050. These levels will likely attract buyers looking for re-entry points in the short term. 

What Do Technical Indicators Say? 

MACD: The hourly MACD for XRP/USD is gaining strength in the bullish zone. 

RSI: The RSI is currently above the 50 mark, signaling sustained positive momentum. 

Key Technical Levels 

• Supports: $2.20, $2.180, $2.120 
• Resistances: $2.250, $2.30, $2.350, $2.420, $2.450, $2.650 

*DOES NOT CONTAIN INVESTMENT ADVICE*

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Can XRP Hold Above the $2.13 Resistance?

If $2.13 is broken with strong volume, the next target could be the $2.22 resistance. A move toward this level would signal strength and could lead to renewed momentum in the short term. However, if the breakout fails, selling pressure may return.

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Critical Support at $2 in Case of Rejection

Should the resistance hold, a pullback toward the $2 support is likely. This level has previously acted as a strong buying zone and may once again attract attention from buyers. XRP is at a key juncture, and price movements in this region should be closely monitored to determine the next move.

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The decision carries broad implications for the crypto sector and has the potential to set a precedent for future token classification lawsuits.

Institutional vs. Programmatic Sales: Court’s Distinction

The court made a clear distinction between institutional sales and programmatic (secondary market) sales of XRP. Judge Torres ruled that Ripple’s direct sales of XRP to institutional investors, totaling $728 million, did constitute an unregistered securities offering under U.S. law. However, the programmatic sales, which include transactions made by retail investors on crypto exchanges, were not deemed securities transactions.

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The court found that most retail buyers of XRP on exchanges were not investing directly in Ripple and were not expecting profits based on Ripple’s efforts, failing to meet the criteria for an investment contract under the Howey Test.

XRP Token Is Not a Security Itself

Judge Torres emphasized that XRP itself is not a security. She stated, “As a digital token, XRP is not in and of itself a ‘contract, transaction, or scheme’ that embodies the requirements of an investment contract under the Howey test.”

The court instead focused on the specific transactions and schemes involving the sale and distribution of XRP, rather than the token as an asset.

Will the SEC Appeal?

Although Ripple has won a crucial decision, the legal battle may not be over. The SEC is expected to appeal the ruling. If an appeal is filed, the case would move to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, where both parties would present arguments and evidence for further review.

An appeal could result in either a reversal or further clarification of the legal standards applied to digital assets. If conflicting rulings emerge from different appellate courts, the case could ultimately be brought before the United States Supreme Court.

Impact on the Crypto Industry

This ruling is seen as positive news for the broader crypto community, particularly as the SEC has recently taken legal action against major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance, partly for allegedly offering unregistered securities. Legal experts suggest that the Ripple ruling could weaken some of the SEC’s arguments in these cases.

The decision also provides much-needed clarity regarding the regulatory framework surrounding digital assets, potentially offering relief to the crypto industry from mounting regulatory pressure. Analysts believe this ruling could boost investor confidence and shape future legal interpretations of how digital assets are classified.

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On the other hand, if XRP sees a strong bounce from the $2 support, the first resistance level would be the bearish FVG zone ($2.36-$2.52**)**. A breakout above this region could strengthen buyers, pushing the price toward the next resistance at $2.78.

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Recently, rising volatility in the cryptocurrency market has made XRP investors more cautious. In particular, the movements of Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins will be decisive for XRP’s direction. If the broader market shows a positive outlook, XRP could hold the $2 support and gain upward momentum. However, if selling pressure persists, XRP might test lower critical support levels.

In the coming days, whether XRP can maintain its $2 level will provide clearer signals for its future price direction. Technical indicators suggest that investors should closely monitor this key level.

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XRP Price Analysis:

The price of XRP, which has made significant progress in its ongoing case with the SEC, rose to $0.61. According to TradingView data, it continues the day with an increase of over 2 percent.

If XRP manages to win the case, the first resistance zone we can see in the price is at $0.65. The support level in XRP is $0.6.

Fet Price Analysis:

Fet draws attention with the decline. According to TradingView data, the cryptocurrency traded at $ 1.35 continues the day with a decline of more than 6 percent.

If the decline in Fet deepens, the price may drop to $1.2. The next resistance area in Fet is the $1.5 level, where the price also reacts.

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