{"id":18077,"date":"2024-04-16T13:12:23","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T13:12:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.io\/blog\/?p=18077"},"modified":"2024-04-16T13:12:23","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T13:12:23","slug":"bitcoin-analyst-turns-bearish-after-calling-pre-halving-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-analyst-turns-bearish-after-calling-pre-halving-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Analyst Turns Bearish After Calling Pre-Halving Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Markus Thielen, founder of research firm 10X Research, is raising red flags for risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC). This comes after previously predicting Bitcoin&#8217;s bottom in November 2022 and its recent pre-halving surge to record highs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rising Treasury Yields Prompt Portfolio Shift<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Thielen attributes his bearish stance to rising Treasury yields, a sign of investor concerns about inflation.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our growing concern is that risk assets (stocks and <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-price-may-dip-before-halving-but-long-term-bullish-outlook-crypto-com-ceo\/\">crypto<\/a>) are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction,&#8221; Thielen stated in a client note. &#8220;The primary trigger is the unexpected and persistent inflation. With the bond market now projecting less than three cuts and 10-year Treasury Yields surpassing 4.50%, we may have arrived at a crucial tipping point for risk assets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Selling Tech Stocks, Holding Select Crypto<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Thielen&#8217;s bearish outlook led him to sell all his tech stocks and maintain only a few &#8220;high-conviction&#8221; cryptocurrencies in his portfolio.<\/p>\n<p>Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have dwindled significantly this year. Initially priced in at six cuts, traders now anticipate less than three due to persistent inflation and a strong U.S. labor market and economy.<\/p>\n<p>This &#8220;hawkish repricing&#8221; by the Federal Reserve has driven up 10-year Treasury yields to 4.61% &#8211; the highest since November 2023. This rise in risk-free rates makes high-risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies less attractive to investors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Rate Cut Expectations Now Fizzles<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Most of this 2023\/2024 bitcoin rally is driven by expectations that interest rates would be cut, and this narrative is being seriously challenged now,&#8221; noted Thielen. He further pointed out the decline in inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds).<\/p>\n<p>The approval of nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC in January allowed investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning and storing the cryptocurrency. While these vehicles attracted nearly $12 billion in investments, the flow has stalled this month after fueling the earlier Bitcoin price surge.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bitcoin ETF Hype Wanes, Net Inflows Dry Up<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The 5-day average net inflows into spot ETFs have dropped to zero. Thielen suggests that &#8220;after an initial novelty hype, ETF flows tend to run out unless prices continue increasing\u2014which they have not done since early March. With two\u2014to 17% drawdowns, those investors might stay on the sidelines.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Post-Halving Correction on the Horizon?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Some analysts predict a further correction after the hype surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on April 20th fades. This pre-programmed event will cut the block reward for miners in half, effectively reducing the pace of new Bitcoin entering circulation.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the recent bearish sentiment, Bitcoin is still up 42% year-to-date, trading around $62,600. The broader crypto market index, CoinDesk 20, also remains positive for the year, currently at 2119 points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markus Thielen, founder of research firm 10X Research, is raising red flags for risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC). This comes after previously predicting Bitcoin&#8217;s bottom in November 2022 and its recent pre-halving surge to record highs. Rising Treasury Yields Prompt Portfolio Shift Thielen attributes his bearish stance to rising Treasury<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15179,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5481,61,3258,5480],"class_list":["post-18077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-10x-research","tag-bitcoin","tag-halving","tag-markus-thielen"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin Analyst Turns Bearish After Calling Pre-Halving Rally - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Founder of research firm 10X Research, is raising red flags for risk assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin (BTC).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-analyst-turns-bearish-after-calling-pre-halving-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin Analyst Turns Bearish After Calling Pre-Halving Rally - 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