{"id":25253,"date":"2024-07-17T18:00:55","date_gmt":"2024-07-17T15:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.io\/?p=25253"},"modified":"2024-07-17T12:31:14","modified_gmt":"2024-07-17T09:31:14","slug":"speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/","title":{"rendered":"Speculation on U.S. Election Drives Polymarket&#8217;s Record Volumes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With more volume recorded in the first two weeks of July than any other month in <strong>Polymarket<\/strong>&#8216;s history, feverish conjecture about the US presidential contest has lifted crypto prediction platform volumes to historic heights.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/#Record-Breaking_Volumes\" title=\"Record-Breaking Volumes\">Record-Breaking Volumes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/#Presidential_Election_Bets\" title=\"Presidential Election Bets\">Presidential Election Bets<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/#Total_Wagered_Amount\" title=\"Total Wagered Amount\">Total Wagered Amount<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/#Nate_Silver_Joins_as_Advisor\" title=\"Nate Silver Joins as Advisor\">Nate Silver Joins as Advisor<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/#Impact_of_JD_Vance_as_Running_Mate\" title=\"Impact of JD Vance as Running Mate\">Impact of JD Vance as Running Mate<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/#Funding_and_Accessibility\" title=\"Funding and Accessibility\">Funding and Accessibility<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Record-Breaking_Volumes\"><\/span>Record-Breaking Volumes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Dune Analytics claims <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> had <strong>$116.4<\/strong> <strong>million<\/strong> in volume this month, more than the $111.5 million it reported last month, its previous highest month. Speculation on the result of the U.S. presidential election directly accounts for most of this trade activity.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Presidential_Election_Bets\"><\/span>Presidential Election Bets<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>On which presidential candidate would most likely win the U.S. election on Nov. 4, political dealers have bet a shockingly $263.5 million. With 69% chances of winning, <strong>Trump<\/strong> is still the popular favorite among prediction merchants at the time of publishing; incumbent <strong>President Joe Biden<\/strong> comes second at 19%. Third at 6% is Vice President Kamala Harris; former First Lady Michelle Obama comes in fourth at just 2%.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Total_Wagered_Amount\"><\/span>Total Wagered Amount<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>A total of $471.9 million has been bet on Polymarket on events ranging from politics, business, sports, and cryptocurrencies since the start of this year. The platform&#8217;s trade volumes have surged as interest in the next presidential contest shows great intensity.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Nate_Silver_Joins_as_Advisor\"><\/span>Nate Silver Joins as Advisor<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>According to a July 16 Axios article, Polymarket apparently recruited Nate Silver, an election expert and statistician, as an adviser. Silver underlined the need of prediction markets in comprehending more general attitude during stormy social and political periods. &#8220;Probabilities really matter when you&#8217;re trying to make plans,&#8221; Silver added.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Impact_of_JD_Vance_as_Running_Mate\"><\/span>Impact of JD Vance as Running Mate<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>One of the few experts who thinks Trump&#8217;s choice of running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, who is crypto-friendly might harm Trump&#8217;s campaign On platforms like Polymarket, the dynamics of the election and the decisions made on running mates still affect market mood and trade volumes.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Funding_and_Accessibility\"><\/span>Funding and Accessibility<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Closed a $70 million Series B investment round headed by Peter Thiel&#8217;s Founder Fund on May 14, <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> had Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin among noteworthy attendees. Polymarket is mostly utilized for speculation on the result of American political events even though traders living in the United States cannot access it.<\/p>\n<p><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Telegram, <\/span><\/i><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">YouTube<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, and <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Twitter<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> channels for the latest <\/span><\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">news<\/span><\/i><\/a><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> and updates.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With more volume recorded in the first two weeks of July than any other month in Polymarket&#8216;s history, feverish conjecture about the US presidential contest has lifted crypto prediction platform volumes to historic heights. Record-Breaking Volumes Dune Analytics claims Polymarket had $116.4 million in volume this month, more than the $111.5 million it reported last<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":25256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,657,1,2],"tags":[1730,1711,3014,6607],"class_list":["post-25253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-en","category-genel","category-news","tag-donald-trump","tag-joe-biden","tag-polymarket","tag-u-s-election"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Speculation on U.S. Election Drives Polymarket&#039;s Record Volumes - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/speculation-on-u-s-election-drives-polymarkets-record-volumes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Speculation on U.S. Election Drives Polymarket&#039;s Record Volumes - Coin Engineer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With more volume recorded in the first two weeks of July than any other month in Polymarket&#8216;s history, feverish conjecture about the US presidential contest has lifted crypto prediction platform volumes to historic heights. 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