{"id":27071,"date":"2024-08-19T21:00:25","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T18:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=27071"},"modified":"2024-08-19T11:02:42","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T08:02:42","slug":"goldman-sachs-lowers-u-s-recession-odds-to-20-from-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/goldman-sachs-lowers-u-s-recession-odds-to-20-from-25\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs Lowers U.S. Recession Odds to 20% from 25%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs has reduced the likelihood of the United States entering a recession within the next 12 months to 20%, down from 25%, following the release of the latest jobless claims and retail sales reports.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/goldman-sachs-reveals-massive-bitcoin-etf-stake\/\">Goldman Sachs<\/a> had raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 25% from 15%, driven by a rise in the unemployment rate, which hit a three-year high in July, sparking fears of an economic downturn.<\/p>\n<p>In a note released on Saturday, Goldman Sachs&#8217; chief U.S. economist, Jan Hatzius, stated, &#8220;We have now shaved our probability from 25% to 20%, mainly because the data for July and early August released since August 2 shows no sign of recession.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Hatzius further explained that if the U.S. economy continues to expand, it would resemble other G10 economies, where the Sahm rule has held less than 70% of the time.<\/p>\n<p>The latest jobless claims report, released on Thursday, indicated that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to a one-month low in the previous week. Additionally, separate data showed that retail sales experienced their largest increase in 1.5 years in July.<\/p>\n<p>Hatzius also mentioned that if the August jobs report appears &#8220;reasonably good,&#8221; he would likely reduce the U.S. recession probability further to 15%.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this, Hatzius expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. However, he did not rule out the possibility of a 50 basis point cut if the jobs report fails to meet expectations.<\/p>\n<p><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a> and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs has reduced the likelihood of the United States entering a recession within the next 12 months to 20%, down from 25%, following the release of the latest jobless claims and retail sales reports. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs had raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 25% from 15%, driven by a<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[3341,7981,7980,2858],"class_list":["post-27071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-jan-hatzius","tag-u-s","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Goldman Sachs Lowers U.S. Recession Odds to 20% from 25% - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/goldman-sachs-lowers-u-s-recession-odds-to-20-from-25\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman Sachs Lowers U.S. Recession Odds to 20% from 25% - Coin Engineer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Goldman Sachs has reduced the likelihood of the United States entering a recession within the next 12 months to 20%, down from 25%, following the release of the latest jobless claims and retail sales reports. 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