{"id":27489,"date":"2024-08-23T14:30:39","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T11:30:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=27489"},"modified":"2024-08-23T11:35:49","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T08:35:49","slug":"jerome-powell-to-signal-rate-cut-at-jackson-hole","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jerome-powell-to-signal-rate-cut-at-jackson-hole\/","title":{"rendered":"Jerome Powell to Signal Rate Cut at Jackson Hole?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Viewpoints expressed by journalist Nick Timirao, often regarded as the &#8220;<em>spokesperson for the Fed<\/em>,&#8221; indicate that the <strong>Fed<\/strong> is apparently considering two different routes for monetary policy in the next few months as <strong>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell<\/strong> gets ready to present his much-awaited speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today.<\/p>\n<p>The <strong>Fed<\/strong> might choose slow rate cuts, lowering rates by a quarter point at each of its forthcoming meetings and modifying the pace based on early next year&#8217;s state of the economy, he added. Should the economy fall more drastically, the <strong>Fed<\/strong> might then take further significant half-point cuts to get rates near 3% by spring 2024.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jerome-powell-to-signal-rate-cut-at-jackson-hole\/#Challenges_in_Implementing_Larger_Rate_Reductions\" title=\"Challenges in Implementing Larger Rate Reductions\">Challenges in Implementing Larger Rate Reductions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jerome-powell-to-signal-rate-cut-at-jackson-hole\/#Market_Anticipation_Ahead_of_Powells_Speech\" title=\"Market Anticipation Ahead of Powell\u2019s Speech\">Market Anticipation Ahead of Powell\u2019s Speech<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Challenges_in_Implementing_Larger_Rate_Reductions\"><\/span>Challenges in Implementing Larger Rate Reductions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Timirao noted that one of the main difficulties is that the <strong>Fed<\/strong> usually has a high threshold for applying a larger rate reduction. Such a choice would demand either a large drop in economic data, as in 2001, or major stress in credit markets, as shown in 2007. The <strong>Fed<\/strong> adopted a more cautious approach in past instances, such as 1995, 1998, and 2019, cutting tiny quarter-points.<\/p>\n<p>That puts the <strong>Fed<\/strong> in what Timirao termed a &#8220;Catch-22&#8221; scenario. Officials must have compelling proof that the present rules are unduly restrictive if they are to speed rate reductions. But by the time such data shows up, a recession could be too late to prevent.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market_Anticipation_Ahead_of_Powells_Speech\"><\/span>Market Anticipation Ahead of Powell\u2019s Speech<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><strong>Powell&#8217;s speech<\/strong> will be keenly examined for hints regarding whether the <strong>Fed<\/strong> is thinking about changing its strategy, thereby balancing the necessity to lower inflation with the possibility of increasing unemployment. <strong>Powell&#8217;s remarks<\/strong> might indicate how the <strong>Fed<\/strong> intends to negotiate &#8220;the mountainside descent&#8221; of increased interest rates while attempting to preserve economic stability as market players await direction.<\/p>\n<p>With inflation and the cost of living taking front stage, the <strong>Fed&#8217;s<\/strong> benchmark lending rate, which ranges from 5.25 to 5.50 percent, currently marks a 23-year high and is lowering demand in the biggest economy in the world ahead of November&#8217;s presidential elections.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;He will likely signal that a rate cut is coming soon,&#8221;<\/em> said Deutsche Bank&#8217;s top US economist, Matthew Luzzetti. <em>&#8220;However, I think he will not indicate the probable size of that rate cut.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Luzzetti of Deutsche Bank said that <strong>Powell<\/strong> is unlikely to come out forcefully in favor of any move on Friday, and the decision to cut by 25 or 50 basis points would depend on how the data comes in over the next month and, most significantly, what the next employment report looks like. A weaker job data would also probably increase the likelihood of a bigger half-point fall, he said.<\/p>\n<p>Following the Jackson Hole conference, on September 6, the next job data will be released before the <strong>Fed&#8217;s<\/strong> next meeting in mid-September.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for\u00a0<\/em><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a> and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Viewpoints expressed by journalist Nick Timirao, often regarded as the &#8220;spokesperson for the Fed,&#8221; indicate that the Fed is apparently considering two different routes for monetary policy in the next few months as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gets ready to present his much-awaited speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today. The Fed might choose slow<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":27494,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[640,8107,8108,4118],"class_list":["post-27489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-fed","tag-fed-interest","tag-jackson-hole","tag-jerome-powell"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Jerome Powell to Signal Rate Cut at Jackson Hole? - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/jerome-powell-to-signal-rate-cut-at-jackson-hole\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jerome Powell to Signal Rate Cut at Jackson Hole? - Coin Engineer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Viewpoints expressed by journalist Nick Timirao, often regarded as the &#8220;spokesperson for the Fed,&#8221; indicate that the Fed is apparently considering two different routes for monetary policy in the next few months as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell gets ready to present his much-awaited speech at the Jackson Hole symposium today. 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