{"id":37468,"date":"2025-02-27T17:00:26","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T14:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=37468"},"modified":"2025-02-27T14:31:32","modified_gmt":"2025-02-27T11:31:32","slug":"arthur-hayes-trump-could-trigger-bitcoin-capitulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-trump-could-trigger-bitcoin-capitulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes: Trump Could Trigger Bitcoin Capitulation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Arthur Hayes<\/strong> believes that <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/panic-in-the-crypto-market-fear-index-reminds-celsius-and-luna-crisis\/\"><strong>Bitcoin&#8217;s (BTC) short-term price<\/strong><\/a> outlook could vary depending on <strong>U.S. politics.<\/strong><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-trump-could-trigger-bitcoin-capitulation\/#Bitcoins_Short-Term_Price_Depends_on_US_Politics\" title=\"Bitcoin&#8217;s Short-Term Price Depends on U.S. Politics\">Bitcoin&#8217;s Short-Term Price Depends on U.S. Politics<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-trump-could-trigger-bitcoin-capitulation\/#Hayes_Hedge_Funds_to_Sell_IBIT_and_Buy_CME_Futures_if_Bitcoin_Price_Drops\" title=\"Hayes: Hedge Funds to Sell IBIT and Buy CME Futures if Bitcoin Price Drops\">Hayes: Hedge Funds to Sell IBIT and Buy CME Futures if Bitcoin Price Drops<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"55\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoins_Short-Term_Price_Depends_on_US_Politics\"><\/span>Bitcoin&#8217;s Short-Term Price Depends on U.S. Politics<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"279\"><strong>Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin&#8217;s (BTC) short-ter<\/strong>m price forecast will be shaped by U.S. politics. <strong>The founder of BitMEX<\/strong> stated on the social media platform X that it is currently &#8220;time to chill out, retrace, and wait.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"57\" data-end=\"279\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-149595 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/btc.jpg\" alt=\"btc\" width=\"2092\" height=\"1307\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"281\" data-end=\"617\">Hayes suggests that if <strong>President Donald Trump\u2019s budget, which includes more spending and a debt ceiling increase<\/strong>, fails to pass through Congress, BTC\u2019s price could fall back to levels seen before the election victory, ranging from $75,000 to $70,000. He highlights that this would be a test of Trump\u2019s control over the Republican Party.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"619\" data-end=\"697\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Hayes_Hedge_Funds_to_Sell_IBIT_and_Buy_CME_Futures_if_Bitcoin_Price_Drops\"><\/span>Hayes: Hedge Funds to Sell IBIT and Buy CME Futures if Bitcoin Price Drops<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"699\" data-end=\"1118\"><strong>Hayes<\/strong> also mentions that hedge funds that purchased <strong>BlackRock\u2019s iShares (IBIT) spot Bitcoin ETF<\/strong> could sell if BTC\u2019s price continues to drop. He explains that most IBIT holders are hedge funds that are holding the ETF long while shorting <strong>CME futures,<\/strong> aiming to earn a higher yield than short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. If this yield gap decreases as BTC\u2019s price falls, these funds will sell IBIT and buy back CME futures.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1120\" data-end=\"1437\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">He adds that these funds are currently in profit and, since their yield is close to U.S. Treasury bond rates, they will likely close their positions and realize their profits during <strong>U.S. trading hours<\/strong>. Hayes emphasizes that the $70,000 level is a crucial psychological barrier for Bitcoin and will be closely watched.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><strong>Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><strong>YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest <a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a> and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin&#8217;s (BTC) short-term price outlook could vary depending on U.S. politics. Bitcoin&#8217;s Short-Term Price Depends on U.S. Politics Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin&#8217;s (BTC) short-term price forecast will be shaped by U.S. politics. The founder of BitMEX stated on the social media platform X that it is currently &#8220;time to chill<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":37470,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[2545,12275,2624,12277,1730,12276],"class_list":["post-37468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoins-btc-short-term-price","tag-bitmex","tag-blackrocks-ishares-ibit-spot-bitcoin-etf","tag-donald-trump","tag-u-s-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Hayes: Trump Could Trigger Bitcoin Capitulation - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-trump-could-trigger-bitcoin-capitulation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Arthur Hayes: Trump Could Trigger Bitcoin Capitulation - Coin Engineer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin&#8217;s (BTC) short-term price outlook could vary depending on U.S. politics. 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