{"id":39486,"date":"2025-04-02T14:30:12","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T11:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=39486"},"modified":"2025-04-02T13:21:43","modified_gmt":"2025-04-02T10:21:43","slug":"goldman-sachs-reveals-sp-500-target-and-recession-probability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/goldman-sachs-reveals-sp-500-target-and-recession-probability\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman Sachs Reveals S&P 500 Target and Recession Probability!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs<\/strong> <\/a>lowers its S&P 500 targets and increases the probability of a U.S. recession<\/strong>, highlighting the economic impact of Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs Lowers S&P 500 Targets, Increases U.S. Recession Probability<\/h2>\n

Goldman Sachs<\/strong>, one of Wall Street\u2019s most influential investment banks, has lowered its S&P 500 targets<\/strong> and increased the probability of a U.S. recession<\/strong> next year. This change reflects concerns about the economic damage caused by President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

This change is particularly gloomy because Goldman has been known for its more optimistic growth expectations over the years, and has been correct in its predictions. It was one of the few forecasters to predict that the Federal Reserve\u2019s rapid interest rate hikes<\/strong> in 2022 would not lead to a recession.<\/p>\n

On Sunday, two teams released notes expressing dimmer expectations<\/strong> for stocks and the economy. Strategists led by David J. Kostin<\/strong> now forecast the S&P 500<\/strong> to fall 5%<\/strong> to 5,300 over the next three months, compared to their previous forecast that the index would remain flat. For the next 12 months<\/strong>, they forecast the index will rise only 6%<\/strong> to 5,900, down from a previous forecast of a 16% gain<\/strong>. They also lowered their earnings growth forecasts for 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Separately, Jan Hatzius<\/strong>‘s economics team raised the probability of a recession<\/strong> in the next 12 months<\/strong> to 35%<\/strong> from 20%<\/strong>. This reflects higher assumptions about tariffs ahead of what Trump is calling \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d<\/strong> when new tariffs on imports are set to take effect.<\/p>\n

This will increase inflation<\/strong> and weaken growth<\/strong>, they said. The economics team raised their year-end inflation forecast<\/strong> to 3.5%<\/strong> based on the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred personal consumption expenditures index<\/strong>, well above the Fed\u2019s 2% target<\/strong>, which will make it difficult for Chair Jerome Powell<\/strong> to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Goldman\u2019s year-end GDP forecast<\/strong> was revised down by half a point to a 1% increase<\/strong>. This led to an increase in their unemployment rate<\/strong> forecast from 4.2%<\/strong> to 4.5%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

The equities team sought a more optimistic perspective<\/strong>. They noted that their sentiment indicator, though sharply down, remains higher than the levels seen after previous major sell-offs. They suggested focusing on stocks with the least earnings growth variability<\/strong> and those that are generally not correlated with major themes driving market pricing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\n

Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our\u00a0Telegram<\/strong>,\u00a0<\/a>YouTube\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>and\u00a0Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Goldman Sachs lowers its S&P 500 targets and increases the probability of a U.S. recession, highlighting the economic impact of Trump\u2019s tariffs. Goldman Sachs Lowers S&P 500 Targets, Increases U.S. Recession Probability Goldman Sachs, one of Wall Street\u2019s most influential investment banks, has lowered its S&P 500 targets and increased the probability of a U.S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":32389,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[13847,3341,13846,13845],"class_list":["post-39486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","tag-donald-trump-tariffs","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-goldman-sachs-recession","tag-goldman-sachs-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"\nGoldman Sachs Reveals S&P 500 Target and Recession Probability! - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/goldman-sachs-reveals-sp-500-target-and-recession-probability\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman Sachs Reveals S&P 500 Target and Recession Probability! - Coin Engineer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Goldman Sachs lowers its S&P 500 targets and increases the probability of a U.S. recession, highlighting the economic impact of Trump\u2019s tariffs. 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