{"id":41232,"date":"2025-05-01T18:00:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T15:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=41232"},"modified":"2025-05-01T14:58:22","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T11:58:22","slug":"cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant Analyst Outlines 3 Bitcoin Scenarios: Optimistic Scenario Points to $150K\u2013$175K!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"\" data-start=\"179\" data-end=\"504\"><strong data-start=\"179\" data-end=\"217\">CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.<\/strong> has evaluated three possible <strong data-start=\"247\" data-end=\"274\">Bitcoin price scenarios<\/strong> for the next six months. His analysis indicates that the current <strong data-start=\"340\" data-end=\"361\">on-chain momentum<\/strong> is in the &#8220;<strong data-start=\"373\" data-end=\"390\">initial rally<\/strong>&#8221; zone. According to Adler, there are three key possibilities that could shape the market from this point forward.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/#Bitcoin_Is_Warming_Up_for_a_New_Rally_3_Scenarios_by_Axel_Adler\" title=\"Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New Rally: 3 Scenarios by Axel Adler\">Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New Rally: 3 Scenarios by Axel Adler<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/#Optimistic_Scenario_Bullish\" title=\"Optimistic Scenario (Bullish)\">Optimistic Scenario (Bullish)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/#Base_Case_Scenario_Consolidation\" title=\"Base Case Scenario (Consolidation)\">Base Case Scenario (Consolidation)<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/#Pessimistic_Scenario_Correction\" title=\"Pessimistic Scenario (Correction)\">Pessimistic Scenario (Correction)<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/#BTC_Rally_and_Its_Impact_on_the_Altcoin_Market\" title=\"BTC Rally and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market\">BTC Rally and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"511\" data-end=\"583\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_Is_Warming_Up_for_a_New_Rally_3_Scenarios_by_Axel_Adler\"><\/span><strong data-start=\"515\" data-end=\"583\">Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New Rally: 3 Scenarios by Axel Adler<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"585\" data-end=\"870\">In his May 1 analysis, Adler examined <strong data-start=\"623\" data-end=\"649\">three potential trends<\/strong> for Bitcoin over the next six months. He emphasized that the <strong data-start=\"711\" data-end=\"732\">on-chain momentum<\/strong> is currently flashing &#8220;<strong data-start=\"756\" data-end=\"765\">start<\/strong>&#8221; signals. The detailed analysis, <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/68132a92d8b2fe24bcd055cc-Bitcoin-is-warming-up-3-scenarios-that-could-shape-the-next-rally\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">published on<\/a> <strong data-start=\"812\" data-end=\"831\">CryptoQuant.com<\/strong>, breaks down the scenarios as follows:<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"877\" data-end=\"917\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Optimistic_Scenario_Bullish\"><\/span><strong data-start=\"882\" data-end=\"915\">Optimistic Scenario (Bullish)<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"918\" data-end=\"1187\">If the <strong data-start=\"925\" data-end=\"934\">Ratio<\/strong> breaks through <strong data-start=\"950\" data-end=\"957\">1.0<\/strong> and holds above it, key on-chain indicators like <strong data-start=\"1007\" data-end=\"1015\">NUPL<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"1020\" data-end=\"1028\">MVRV<\/strong> could reflect a new upward impulse. In this case, <strong data-start=\"1079\" data-end=\"1096\">Bitcoin price<\/strong> could reach the <strong data-start=\"1113\" data-end=\"1128\">$150K\u2013$175K<\/strong> range, mirroring the <strong data-start=\"1150\" data-end=\"1165\">cycle logic<\/strong> of <strong data-start=\"1169\" data-end=\"1186\">2017 and 2021<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"1194\" data-end=\"1239\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Base_Case_Scenario_Consolidation\"><\/span><strong data-start=\"1199\" data-end=\"1237\">Base Case Scenario (Consolidation)<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1240\" data-end=\"1522\">If the <strong data-start=\"1247\" data-end=\"1256\">Ratio<\/strong> stays within the <strong data-start=\"1274\" data-end=\"1291\">0.8\u20131.0 range<\/strong>, the market may continue in a <strong data-start=\"1322\" data-end=\"1340\">sideways trend<\/strong> within a wide price corridor. In this scenario, the price is expected to range between <strong data-start=\"1428\" data-end=\"1442\">$90K\u2013$110K<\/strong>, with participants maintaining their positions but avoiding increased exposure.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"\" data-start=\"1529\" data-end=\"1573\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Pessimistic_Scenario_Correction\"><\/span><strong data-start=\"1534\" data-end=\"1571\">Pessimistic Scenario (Correction)<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1574\" data-end=\"1838\">If the <strong data-start=\"1581\" data-end=\"1590\">Ratio<\/strong> drops to <strong data-start=\"1600\" data-end=\"1609\">0.75+<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"1611\" data-end=\"1633\">short-term holders<\/strong> might begin <strong data-start=\"1646\" data-end=\"1664\">taking profits<\/strong>, potentially triggering a price correction to the <strong data-start=\"1715\" data-end=\"1728\">$70K\u2013$85K<\/strong> range. However, Adler notes that a correction has <strong data-start=\"1779\" data-end=\"1799\">already occurred<\/strong>, making this scenario <strong data-start=\"1822\" data-end=\"1837\">less likely<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1574\" data-end=\"1838\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-41234 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/wX4n0S_8f793a6d19e0231054f82d15b01e5fa0d168c9ce4e2170cbe5a43a0171ae0e80-1.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/wX4n0S_8f793a6d19e0231054f82d15b01e5fa0d168c9ce4e2170cbe5a43a0171ae0e80-1.webp 1280w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/wX4n0S_8f793a6d19e0231054f82d15b01e5fa0d168c9ce4e2170cbe5a43a0171ae0e80-1-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/wX4n0S_8f793a6d19e0231054f82d15b01e5fa0d168c9ce4e2170cbe5a43a0171ae0e80-1-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/wX4n0S_8f793a6d19e0231054f82d15b01e5fa0d168c9ce4e2170cbe5a43a0171ae0e80-1-768x432.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" data-start=\"1845\" data-end=\"1899\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"BTC_Rally_and_Its_Impact_on_the_Altcoin_Market\"><\/span><strong data-start=\"1849\" data-end=\"1899\">BTC Rally and Its Impact on the Altcoin Market<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1901\" data-end=\"2045\">In <strong data-start=\"1904\" data-end=\"1912\">2025<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"1914\" data-end=\"1943\">Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D)<\/strong> hit <strong data-start=\"1948\" data-end=\"1955\">64%<\/strong>, reaching its highest levels of the year and significantly <strong data-start=\"2015\" data-end=\"2044\">delaying altcoin recovery<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2047\" data-end=\"2294\">Between <strong data-start=\"2055\" data-end=\"2081\">January and April 2025<\/strong>, Bitcoin dominance increased by <strong data-start=\"2114\" data-end=\"2121\">13%<\/strong>. During this period, the <strong data-start=\"2147\" data-end=\"2169\">altcoin market cap<\/strong> (excluding BTC and ETH) dropped from <strong data-start=\"2207\" data-end=\"2225\">$1.13 trillion<\/strong> to <strong data-start=\"2229\" data-end=\"2245\">$817 billion<\/strong>, resulting in a <strong data-start=\"2262\" data-end=\"2285\">$300 billion (~28%)<\/strong> decline.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2296\" data-end=\"2430\">Notably, altcoins <strong data-start=\"2314\" data-end=\"2353\">outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies<\/strong> showed signs of recovery around the <strong data-start=\"2390\" data-end=\"2406\">$200 billion<\/strong> support zone from 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2432\" data-end=\"2591\">If the market repeats previous cycles, a <strong data-start=\"2473\" data-end=\"2526\">breakout above the 50-week moving average (50WMA)<\/strong> could push altcoins toward the <strong data-start=\"2558\" data-end=\"2585\">$500 billion resistance<\/strong> zone.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2593\" data-end=\"2814\">Additionally, in the past three months, a few <strong data-start=\"2639\" data-end=\"2668\">altcoins outperformed <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/startup-meanwhile-offering-life-insurance-with-btc-secures-investment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BTC<\/a><\/strong>, including <strong data-start=\"2680\" data-end=\"2698\">Fartcoin (+8%)<\/strong>, <strong data-start=\"2700\" data-end=\"2729\">PancakeSwap (CAKE, +2.8%)<\/strong>, and <strong data-start=\"2735\" data-end=\"2757\">Monero (XMR, +19%)<\/strong>. During the same period, <strong data-start=\"2783\" data-end=\"2794\">Bitcoin<\/strong> dropped by <strong data-start=\"2806\" data-end=\"2813\">10%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a> and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has evaluated three possible Bitcoin price scenarios for the next six months. His analysis indicates that the current on-chain momentum is in the &#8220;initial rally&#8221; zone. According to Adler, there are three key possibilities that could shape the market from this point forward. Bitcoin Is Warming Up for a New<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41236,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[1766,3286,15083],"class_list":["post-41232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-bitcoin-analays","tag-cryptoquant-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>CryptoQuant Analyst Outlines 3 Bitcoin Scenarios: Optimistic Scenario Points to $150K\u2013$175K! - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CryptoQuant Analyst Outlines 3 Bitcoin Scenarios: Optimistic Scenario Points to $150K\u2013$175K! - Coin Engineer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has evaluated three possible Bitcoin price scenarios for the next six months. 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- Coin Engineer","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/cryptoquant-bitcoin-scenarios-points-to-175k\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"CryptoQuant Analyst Outlines 3 Bitcoin Scenarios: Optimistic Scenario Points to $150K\u2013$175K! - Coin Engineer","og_description":"CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has evaluated three possible Bitcoin price scenarios for the next six months. His analysis indicates that the current on-chain momentum is in the &#8220;initial rally&#8221; zone. According to Adler, there are three key possibilities that could shape the market from this point forward. 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