{"id":45104,"date":"2025-06-26T17:04:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T14:04:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=45104"},"modified":"2025-06-26T17:06:27","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T14:06:27","slug":"is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Is a Rate Cut Possible This Fall? How About U.S. Economic Data?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"88\" data-end=\"320\">Important labor market data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/united-states-withdraws-tariffs-on-china\/\"><strong data-start=\"125\" data-end=\"142\">United States<\/strong><\/a> has been released. For the week ending June 21, initial <strong data-start=\"199\" data-end=\"217\">jobless claims<\/strong> came in at 236,000, below economists&#8217; expectations of 244,000. The previous week&#8217;s figure was 246,000.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"322\" data-end=\"532\">During the same period, <strong data-start=\"346\" data-end=\"367\">continuing claims<\/strong> showed a notable increase. For the week ending June 14, claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021. Expectations were around 1.950 million.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data\/#Economic_Contraction_Exceeds_Expectations\" title=\"Economic Contraction Exceeds Expectations\">Economic Contraction Exceeds Expectations<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data\/#Layoffs_on_the_Rise_Hiring_Remains_Weak\" title=\"Layoffs on the Rise, Hiring Remains Weak\">Layoffs on the Rise, Hiring Remains Weak<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data\/#Could_the_Federal_Reserve_Cut_Rates_This_Fall\" title=\"Could the Federal Reserve Cut Rates This Fall?\">Could the Federal Reserve Cut Rates This Fall?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data\/#Unemployment_Rate_May_Rise\" title=\"Unemployment Rate May Rise\">Unemployment Rate May Rise<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-a-rate-cut-possible-this-fall-how-about-u-s-economic-data\/#US_Stock_Markets_Close_Higher\" title=\"U.S. Stock Markets Close Higher\">U.S. Stock Markets Close Higher<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"534\" data-end=\"579\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Economic_Contraction_Exceeds_Expectations\"><\/span>Economic Contraction Exceeds Expectations<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"581\" data-end=\"801\">The U.S. economy shrank by 0.5% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2024. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% decline. This marks a sharp pullback compared to the 2.4% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"803\" data-end=\"847\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Layoffs_on_the_Rise_Hiring_Remains_Weak\"><\/span>Layoffs on the Rise, Hiring Remains Weak<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"849\" data-end=\"1121\">Although initial jobless claims have decreased in the short term, broader data indicates an increase in <strong data-start=\"953\" data-end=\"964\">layoffs<\/strong>. With the start of summer holidays and technical factors, non-teaching staff in some states are eligible to file for unemployment, contributing to the rise.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1123\" data-end=\"1337\">Economists also highlight that growing uncertainties and <strong data-start=\"1180\" data-end=\"1223\">President Donald Trump\u2019s import tariffs<\/strong> have made it difficult for companies to plan ahead, leading many firms to take a cautious approach toward hiring.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1339\" data-end=\"1389\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Could_the_Federal_Reserve_Cut_Rates_This_Fall\"><\/span>Could the Federal Reserve Cut Rates This Fall?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1391\" data-end=\"1716\">The <strong data-start=\"1395\" data-end=\"1414\">Federal Reserve<\/strong> held interest rates steady last week, keeping the benchmark rate in the 4.25%\u20134.50% range. Fed Chair <strong data-start=\"1516\" data-end=\"1533\">Jerome Powell<\/strong> noted that they are waiting to see more clarity on external inflation pressures before considering any rate cuts. The likelihood of a <strong data-start=\"1668\" data-end=\"1680\">rate cut<\/strong> this fall appears to be increasing.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1718\" data-end=\"1748\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Unemployment_Rate_May_Rise\"><\/span>Unemployment Rate May Rise<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1750\" data-end=\"2009\">The rise in continuing claims suggests that the unemployment rate could climb from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June. A recent <strong data-start=\"1871\" data-end=\"1891\">Conference Board<\/strong> survey showed the share of consumers who believe jobs are &#8220;plentiful&#8221; dropped to its lowest level in over four years.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2011\" data-end=\"2236\">Lou Crandall, Chief Economist at Wrightson ICAP, commented, \u201cThe rising volume of layoffs is likely to translate into an increase of at least one-tenth of a percent in the national jobless rate in the June employment report.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2238\" data-end=\"2273\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"US_Stock_Markets_Close_Higher\"><\/span>U.S. Stock Markets Close Higher<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2275\" data-end=\"2643\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Additionally,\u00a0 <strong data-start=\"2327\" data-end=\"2349\">U.S. stock markets<\/strong>\u00a0in positive territory. The <strong data-start=\"2384\" data-end=\"2397\">Dow Jones<\/strong> rose by 0.24%, the <strong data-start=\"2417\" data-end=\"2428\">S&amp;P 500<\/strong> by 0.38%, and the <strong data-start=\"2447\" data-end=\"2457\">Nasdaq<\/strong> by 0.45%. This uptick was supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and <strong data-start=\"2536\" data-end=\"2560\">Powell\u2019s dovish tone<\/strong> on potential interest rate cuts, which sparked short-term optimism in the markets.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p data-start=\"2275\" data-end=\"2643\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><strong>Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><strong>YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\"><strong>Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Important labor market data from the United States has been released. For the week ending June 21, initial jobless claims came in at 236,000, below economists&#8217; expectations of 244,000. The previous week&#8217;s figure was 246,000. During the same period, continuing claims showed a notable increase. For the week ending June 14, claims rose to 1.974<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":36445,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[1885,1180,10244,10238,12862,8875,577,2297,9812,2487,12767],"class_list":["post-45104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-dow-jones","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rate-cut","tag-israel-iran","tag-jobless-claims","tag-middle-east","tag-nasdaq","tag-powell","tag-president-donald-trump","tag-sp-500","tag-tariff"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is a Rate Cut Possible This Fall? 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