{"id":46802,"date":"2025-07-26T16:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T13:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=46802"},"modified":"2025-07-26T14:26:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T11:26:01","slug":"has-altcoin-season-truly-begun-coinbase-analysts-weigh-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-altcoin-season-truly-begun-coinbase-analysts-weigh-in\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Altcoin Season Truly Begun? Coinbase Analysts Weigh In"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"161\" data-end=\"452\">The recent <strong data-start=\"172\" data-end=\"186\">volatility<\/strong> in the crypto market has sparked fresh debates about whether a genuine <strong data-start=\"258\" data-end=\"276\"><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/binance-launches-zorausdt-tagusdt-perpetual-contracts\/\">altcoin<\/a> season<\/strong> is underway. A notable surge in capital flowing into lower market cap tokens was quickly followed by sharp corrections\u2014raising questions about the sustainability of the rally.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-altcoin-season-truly-begun-coinbase-analysts-weigh-in\/#Altcoin_Seasonal_Index_Slips_Amid_Rising_Doubts\" title=\"Altcoin Seasonal Index Slips Amid Rising Doubts\">Altcoin Seasonal Index Slips Amid Rising Doubts<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-altcoin-season-truly-begun-coinbase-analysts-weigh-in\/#Coinbase_Research_Excessive_Leverage_Behind_the_Pullback\" title=\"Coinbase Research: Excessive Leverage Behind the Pullback\">Coinbase Research: Excessive Leverage Behind the Pullback<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/has-altcoin-season-truly-begun-coinbase-analysts-weigh-in\/#Bitcoin_Dominance_Drops_Below_Key_Threshold\" title=\"Bitcoin Dominance Drops Below Key Threshold\">Bitcoin Dominance Drops Below Key Threshold<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"454\" data-end=\"505\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Altcoin_Seasonal_Index_Slips_Amid_Rising_Doubts\"><\/span>Altcoin Seasonal Index Slips Amid Rising Doubts<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"507\" data-end=\"817\">The <strong data-start=\"511\" data-end=\"537\">Altcoin Seasonal Index<\/strong>, which measures how altcoins are performing relative to <strong data-start=\"594\" data-end=\"605\">Bitcoin<\/strong> on a scale of 0 to 100, offered early signs of optimism. The index climbed to 59 on Monday, hinting at potential momentum. However, by Friday, it had dropped to 41\u2014reflecting growing uncertainty among investors.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"819\" data-end=\"977\">This shift signals that the recent bullish sentiment surrounding altcoins may have been premature or short-lived, especially given the market\u2019s fragile state.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"979\" data-end=\"1040\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Coinbase_Research_Excessive_Leverage_Behind_the_Pullback\"><\/span>Coinbase Research: Excessive Leverage Behind the Pullback<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1042\" data-end=\"1367\">According to <strong data-start=\"1055\" data-end=\"1070\">David Duong<\/strong>, Head of Research at Coinbase, the market&#8217;s latest downturn has less to do with fundamentals and more with risk management. Since April, the size of the altcoin market\u2014excluding <strong data-start=\"1249\" data-end=\"1264\">stablecoins<\/strong>\u2014has nearly doubled. But many investors were caught overexposed in highly leveraged <strong data-start=\"1348\" data-end=\"1356\">long<\/strong> positions.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1369\" data-end=\"1653\">One key indicator highlighted by Duong is the <strong data-start=\"1415\" data-end=\"1450\">Altcoin Open Interest Dominance<\/strong>, which rose to 1.6. This metric compares the dollar value of open interest in altcoin futures versus <strong data-start=\"1552\" data-end=\"1563\">Bitcoin<\/strong> futures. Historically, a spike in this ratio has often preceded sharp market corrections.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1655\" data-end=\"1805\">Duong emphasized that a drop in this metric would signal healthy <strong data-start=\"1720\" data-end=\"1736\">deleveraging<\/strong>, while a continued rise could lead to further market <strong data-start=\"1790\" data-end=\"1804\">volatility<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1807\" data-end=\"1854\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_Dominance_Drops_Below_Key_Threshold\"><\/span>Bitcoin Dominance Drops Below Key Threshold<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1856\" data-end=\"2132\">A critical factor for the continuation of altcoin momentum is the <strong data-start=\"1922\" data-end=\"1943\">Bitcoin Dominance<\/strong> metric, which reflects <strong data-start=\"1967\" data-end=\"1980\">Bitcoin\u2019s<\/strong> share of the overall crypto market. Notably, this figure has dipped below its 200-day moving average\u2014something that hasn\u2019t occurred since January 2025.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2134\" data-end=\"2477\">According to Duong, \u201cA sustained move below the 200-day average could be the technical confirmation of an <strong data-start=\"2240\" data-end=\"2251\">altcoin<\/strong> season.\u201d He added that such drops in the past have often preceded weeks-long <strong data-start=\"2329\" data-end=\"2340\">altcoin<\/strong> rallies, such as in 2021. However, he also cautioned that more daily closes below this level are needed before drawing firm conclusions.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p data-start=\"2134\" data-end=\"2477\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Also, you can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, please follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram<\/strong>,\u00a0<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest news and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent volatility in the crypto market has sparked fresh debates about whether a genuine altcoin season is underway. A notable surge in capital flowing into lower market cap tokens was quickly followed by sharp corrections\u2014raising questions about the sustainability of the rally. Altcoin Seasonal Index Slips Amid Rising Doubts The Altcoin Seasonal Index, which<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":38013,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[236,21409,8878,21410,6227,4624,13175,488],"class_list":["post-46802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-altcoin","tag-altcoin-open-interest-dominance","tag-altcoin-season","tag-altcoin-seasonal-index","tag-bitcoin-bull","tag-bitcoin-dominance","tag-deleveraging","tag-stablecoin"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Has Altcoin Season Truly Begun? 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