{"id":47203,"date":"2025-08-01T17:00:47","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T14:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=47203"},"modified":"2025-08-01T16:59:16","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T13:59:16","slug":"two-rate-cuts-fully-priced-in-by-end-of-2025-fed-becoming-more-clear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/two-rate-cuts-fully-priced-in-by-end-of-2025-fed-becoming-more-clear\/","title":{"rendered":"Two Rate Cuts Fully Priced In by End of 2025! Fed Becoming More Clear?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"266\" data-end=\"708\">The recently released <strong>U.S. July jobs report<\/strong> revealed a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2%, with only 73,000 new jobs added. These figures fell significantly short of expectations and signaled a weakening in the labor market. In response, investors have returned to the possibility of <strong data-start=\"567\" data-end=\"596\">Federal Reserve <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/trump-fed-rate-cut-pressure-july-2025\/\">rate cuts<\/a><\/strong> aimed at stimulating the economy. As of now, markets have fully priced in two rate cuts by the end of <strong data-start=\"699\" data-end=\"707\">2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/two-rate-cuts-fully-priced-in-by-end-of-2025-fed-becoming-more-clear\/#Feds_Interest_Rate_Cuts_Outlook_and_Economic_Conditions\" title=\"Fed\u2019s Interest Rate Cuts Outlook and Economic Conditions\">Fed\u2019s Interest Rate Cuts Outlook and Economic Conditions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/two-rate-cuts-fully-priced-in-by-end-of-2025-fed-becoming-more-clear\/#FOMC_Projections_and_Market_Expectations\" title=\"FOMC Projections and Market Expectations\">FOMC Projections and Market Expectations<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/two-rate-cuts-fully-priced-in-by-end-of-2025-fed-becoming-more-clear\/#Powells_Hawkish_Messaging\" title=\"Powell\u2019s Hawkish Messaging\">Powell\u2019s Hawkish Messaging<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"710\" data-end=\"765\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Feds_Interest_Rate_Cuts_Outlook_and_Economic_Conditions\"><\/span>Fed\u2019s Interest Rate Cuts Outlook and Economic Conditions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul data-start=\"767\" data-end=\"1076\">\n<li data-start=\"767\" data-end=\"816\">\n<p data-start=\"769\" data-end=\"816\">The current <strong data-start=\"781\" data-end=\"799\">Fed funds rate<\/strong> stands at 4.33%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"817\" data-end=\"880\">\n<p data-start=\"819\" data-end=\"880\">Investors are expecting <strong data-start=\"843\" data-end=\"860\">two rate cuts<\/strong> by the end of 2025.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"881\" data-end=\"959\">\n<p data-start=\"883\" data-end=\"959\">The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has climbed to <strong data-start=\"951\" data-end=\"958\">75%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"960\" data-end=\"1076\">\n<p data-start=\"962\" data-end=\"1076\">Fed official Bowman noted that gradual policy adjustments would continue in order to support the <strong data-start=\"1059\" data-end=\"1075\">labor market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1078\" data-end=\"1479\">At its latest meeting, the <strong data-start=\"1105\" data-end=\"1124\">Federal Reserve<\/strong> kept its policy rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. Unlike previous meetings, however, the decision was not unanimous. Two of the 12 <strong data-start=\"1267\" data-end=\"1275\">FOMC<\/strong> members voted in favor of a 0.25% rate cut. This split decision, along with the tone of the official statement, is being interpreted as a strong signal that a rate cut may come as early as <strong data-start=\"1465\" data-end=\"1478\">September<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1481\" data-end=\"1525\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"FOMC_Projections_and_Market_Expectations\"><\/span>FOMC Projections and Market Expectations<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1527\" data-end=\"1913\">The <strong data-start=\"1531\" data-end=\"1558\">FOMC\u2019s June projections<\/strong> had already indicated the possibility of two rate cuts before the end of 2025. However, with only three meetings left on the calendar, futures markets have not fully reflected this scenario yet, pricing in only about a 40% chance. On the other hand, some analysts suggest the likelihood is closer to 66%, signaling a solid\u2014but not guaranteed\u2014possibility.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1915\" data-end=\"1945\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Powells_Hawkish_Messaging\"><\/span>Powell\u2019s Hawkish Messaging<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1947\" data-end=\"2329\">One of the factors reducing expectations of a September rate cut is <strong data-start=\"2015\" data-end=\"2057\">Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s hawkish tone<\/strong> during his press conference. Powell emphasized that no decision has yet been made for the September meeting. Still, his strong focus on ongoing <strong data-start=\"2202\" data-end=\"2221\">inflation risks<\/strong>, while downplaying downside risks to growth and the labor market, created a more cautious market sentiment.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p data-start=\"1947\" data-end=\"2329\"><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recently released U.S. July jobs report revealed a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2%, with only 73,000 new jobs added. These figures fell significantly short of expectations and signaled a weakening in the labor market. In response, investors have returned to the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts aimed at stimulating<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":44547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[1730,640,1477,21729,1180,4118,21731,21730,7519,7664,8132,21732],"class_list":["post-47203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-donald-trump","tag-fed","tag-fomc","tag-hawkish","tag-inflation","tag-jerome-powell","tag-jobless","tag-jobs","tag-july","tag-labor-market","tag-rate-cut","tag-september"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Two Rate Cuts Fully Priced In by End of 2025! 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