{"id":47364,"date":"2025-08-05T12:00:47","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T09:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=47364"},"modified":"2025-08-05T11:42:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T08:42:08","slug":"fed-september-rate-cut-odds-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-september-rate-cut-odds-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar After Weak Jobs Report!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The latest<strong> U.S. employment data<\/strong> has caused a major shift in monetary policy expectations. Job growth in July came in well below forecasts. This weakness has rapidly strengthened expectations that the <strong>Federal Reserve (Fed)<\/strong> will <strong>cut interest rates<\/strong> in September.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">According to CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September <strong>17 FOMC meeting<\/strong> has risen to 90.1%. Earlier in the day, this probability was calculated at 89.1%. This indicates that expectations have strengthened significantly during the day.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In contrast, the probability assigned by investors to rates being held steady is just 5.6%, showing how clearly the market is positioned for a rate cut.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-47365 \" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cme-fed-1024x477.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"828\" height=\"386\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cme-fed-1024x477.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cme-fed-300x140.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cme-fed-768x358.jpg 768w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/cme-fed.jpg 1146w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 828px) 100vw, 828px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-september-rate-cut-odds-2025\/#Trump_and_the_Fed_Chairmanship_Another_Factor_Behind_the_Rate_Cut_Expectation\" title=\"Trump and the Fed Chairmanship: Another Factor Behind the Rate Cut Expectation\u00a0\">Trump and the Fed Chairmanship: Another Factor Behind the Rate Cut Expectation\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-september-rate-cut-odds-2025\/#BlackRocks_50_Basis_Point_Surprise_Forecast_Cautious_Optimism_in_Markets\" title=\"BlackRock&#8217;s 50 Basis Point Surprise Forecast: Cautious Optimism in Markets\u00a0\">BlackRock&#8217;s 50 Basis Point Surprise Forecast: Cautious Optimism in Markets\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Trump_and_the_Fed_Chairmanship_Another_Factor_Behind_the_Rate_Cut_Expectation\"><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Trump and the Fed Chairmanship: Another Factor Behind the Rate Cut Expectation<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Meanwhile, another factor boosting the probability of a rate cut is Trump\u2019s plan to appoint a new Fed Chair. <strong>President Trump<\/strong> is reportedly planning to replace <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/first-resignation-from-the-fed-in-the-trump-era\/\"><strong>Adriana Kugler<\/strong><\/a>, whose term is ending, with someone who favors rate cuts. Kugler has consistently voted against rate cuts throughout 2025. If she remains on the board until the September meeting, she is expected to vote again to keep rates unchanged.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Fed has held the policy rate steady at the <strong>4.25%\u20134.50%<\/strong> range since December 2024. No changes have been made over the last five meetings. However, the July 2025 non-farm payroll report, showing just 73,000 new jobs versus the expected 147,000, triggered a sharp market reaction. This gap has raised concerns about the strength of economic growth.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"BlackRocks_50_Basis_Point_Surprise_Forecast_Cautious_Optimism_in_Markets\"><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">BlackRock&#8217;s 50 Basis Point Surprise Forecast: Cautious Optimism in Markets<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Moreover, it&#8217;s not just a <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/breaking-news-fed-made-interest-rate-decision\/\"><strong>25 basis point<\/strong><\/a> cut that&#8217;s on the table\u2014there&#8217;s talk of a 50 basis point move. BlackRock\u2019s Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder suggested that a more aggressive cut in September is possible. According to Rieder, the Fed may implement two or three more cuts throughout the remainder of the year.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">According to <strong>BlackRock\u2019s<\/strong> institutional market outlook, current U.S. economic conditions demand a looser monetary policy. Inflationary pressures and slowing consumer spending further support this expectation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Still, the timing and scale of the rate cut remain crucial. Investors are closely watching the Fed\u2019s September decision. The pressure created by weak jobs data will largely shape the outcome.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\"> <em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/strong><\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\"><strong class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0channels for\u00a0<\/em><em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">the latest\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest U.S. employment data has caused a major shift in monetary policy expectations. Job growth in July came in well below forecasts. This weakness has rapidly strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September.\u00a0 According to CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":47367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[21868,21864,21866,18624,20714,21867,21865,21869],"class_list":["post-47364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-blackrock-rate-prediction","tag-fed-rate-forecast","tag-fomc-september-meeting","tag-inflation-outlook-2025","tag-monetary-policy-shift","tag-trump-fed-plans","tag-us-interest-rates-2025","tag-weak-us-jobs-report"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar After Weak Jobs Report! - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Weak U.S. job data pushes Fed rate cut expectations for September to 90%. 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