{"id":53168,"date":"2025-10-03T13:36:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T10:36:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=53168"},"modified":"2025-10-03T13:36:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T10:36:11","slug":"fed-is-it-cutting-rates-in-october-polymarket-speaks-clearly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-is-it-cutting-rates-in-october-polymarket-speaks-clearly\/","title":{"rendered":"FED: Is It Cutting Rates in October? Polymarket Speaks Clearly"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Investors are betting on the <strong>Fed<\/strong> cutting interest rates at its October 29 meeting, with <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> data showing a 90% probability. Markets are already adapting to this possibility, with trading volumes supporting the cut. This picture shows that markets are already adapting to the Fed&#8217;s October decision. Trading volumes on Polymarket also confirm this prediction. Analysts note that investors are acting cautiously but quickly.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-is-it-cutting-rates-in-october-polymarket-speaks-clearly\/#Polymarket_Sees_25_Basis_Point_Rate_Cut_Emerge_as_Frontrunner\" title=\"Polymarket Sees 25 Basis Point Rate Cut Emerge as Frontrunner\">Polymarket Sees 25 Basis Point Rate Cut Emerge as Frontrunner<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-is-it-cutting-rates-in-october-polymarket-speaks-clearly\/#US_Political_Uncertainty_Boosts_Rate_Cut_Expectations\" title=\"US Political Uncertainty Boosts Rate Cut Expectations\">US Political Uncertainty Boosts Rate Cut Expectations<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Polymarket_Sees_25_Basis_Point_Rate_Cut_Emerge_as_Frontrunner\"><\/span>Polymarket Sees 25 Basis Point Rate Cut Emerge as Frontrunner<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>The market has turned its attention to the Fed&#8217;s October 29 meeting. Polymarket investors believe a rate cut is almost certain. The 25 basis point cut scenario is clearly in the lead with a trading volume exceeding $5.4 million. The \u201cno interest rate change\u201d option remained at a volume of $4.5 million. There is only a 4% chance of a 50 basis point or greater cut, while the probability of a fixed rate is 7%. The 25 basis point cut is leading, and markets are pricing it in.<\/p>\n<p><em>You May Be Interested In: <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-tough-decisions-between-inflation-and-interest-rate-cuts\/\">Fed: Tough Decisions Between Inflation and Interest Rate Cuts<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"US_Political_Uncertainty_Boosts_Rate_Cut_Expectations\"><\/span>US Political Uncertainty Boosts Rate Cut Expectations<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Evercore ISI strategist Krishna Guha said the potential US government shutdown is complicating the Fed&#8217;s decision-making. Delays in data flow and a slowdown in public spending are increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in October. The slowdown in the labor market is also pushing inflationary pressures into the background and supporting the <strong>Fed&#8217;<\/strong>s cautious stance.<\/p>\n<p>According to Guha, even if the Fed sends cautious messages, consecutive interest rate cuts will remain on the agenda until the end of the year. Markets have already priced in this possibility. Investors are closely following the scenario that the Fed will cut interest rates before the end of the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors are betting on the Fed cutting interest rates at its October 29 meeting, with Polymarket data showing a 90% probability. Markets are already adapting to this possibility, with trading volumes supporting the cut. This picture shows that markets are already adapting to the Fed&#8217;s October decision. Trading volumes on Polymarket also confirm this prediction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":53170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,2],"tags":[640,10244,24494,24493,3014,10246],"class_list":["post-53168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-news","category-news","tag-fed","tag-interest-rate-cut","tag-investor-expectation","tag-october-fed-meeting","tag-polymarket","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>FED: Is It Cutting Rates in October? 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