{"id":53738,"date":"2025-10-09T13:00:37","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T10:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=53738"},"modified":"2025-10-09T12:50:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T09:50:16","slug":"arthur-hayes-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-officially-dead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-officially-dead\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Officially Dead!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"63\" data-end=\"338\">One of the most debated ideas in the crypto world \u2014 the \u201c4-year <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-altcoin-fomc-powell-impact\/\"><strong>Bitcoin cycle<\/strong><\/a>\u201d \u2014 may no longer hold true. <strong>BitMEX<\/strong> co-founder <strong>Arthur Hayes<\/strong> argues that Bitcoin\u2019s price movements are not governed by halving events, but rather by global monetary policy and liquidity conditions.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-officially-dead\/#%E2%80%9CThe_4-Year_Pattern_Wont_Work_This_Time%E2%80%9D\" title=\"\u201cThe 4-Year Pattern Won\u2019t Work This Time\u201d\">\u201cThe 4-Year Pattern Won\u2019t Work This Time\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-officially-dead\/#Why_This_Cycle_Is_Different\" title=\"Why This Cycle Is Different\">Why This Cycle Is Different<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/arthur-hayes-the-4-year-bitcoin-cycle-is-officially-dead\/#What_Really_Drives_Bitcoins_Market_Cycles\" title=\"What Really Drives Bitcoin\u2019s Market Cycles\">What Really Drives Bitcoin\u2019s Market Cycles<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"345\" data-end=\"390\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E2%80%9CThe_4-Year_Pattern_Wont_Work_This_Time%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>\u201cThe 4-Year Pattern Won\u2019t Work This Time\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"392\" data-end=\"627\">In his latest blog post, Hayes pointed out that many investors still expect Bitcoin to follow its historical four-year rhythm, predicting a market top based on previous bull cycles. However, he believes this approach is now outdated.<\/p>\n<blockquote data-start=\"629\" data-end=\"773\">\n<p data-start=\"631\" data-end=\"773\">\u201cAs we approach the anniversary of this fourth cycle, traders are eager to apply the old pattern \u2014 but this time it will fail,\u201d Hayes wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"775\" data-end=\"990\">According to Hayes, Bitcoin\u2019s price cycles are shaped by the availability and flow of money \u2014 mainly the U.S. dollar (USD) and Chinese yuan (CNY) \u2014 rather than arbitrary timelines or institutional adoption phases.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"992\" data-end=\"1110\">He emphasized that past bull markets didn\u2019t end because of time, but because monetary conditions tightened globally.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1117\" data-end=\"1150\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_This_Cycle_Is_Different\"><\/span>Why This Cycle Is Different<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1152\" data-end=\"1255\">Hayes outlined several reasons why the current market cycle differs fundamentally from previous ones:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1257\" data-end=\"1959\">\n<li data-start=\"1257\" data-end=\"1432\">\n<p data-start=\"1259\" data-end=\"1432\">U.S. Treasury liquidity boost: The Treasury has injected around $2.5 trillion into markets by drawing down funds from the Federal Reserve\u2019s Reverse Repo (RRP) program.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1433\" data-end=\"1588\">\n<p data-start=\"1435\" data-end=\"1588\">\u201cRun it hot\u201d economic policy: Former U.S. President Donald Trump aims to stimulate growth through looser monetary policies to manage national debt.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1589\" data-end=\"1721\">\n<p data-start=\"1591\" data-end=\"1721\">Bank deregulation plans: The U.S. is preparing to ease restrictions on banks, encouraging more lending and credit expansion.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1722\" data-end=\"1959\">\n<p data-start=\"1724\" data-end=\"1959\">Rate cuts despite inflation: Despite inflation still being above target, the Federal Reserve has resumed rate cuts. According to CME futures data, there\u2019s a 94% probability of another cut in October and an 80% chance in December.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1961\" data-end=\"2100\">These factors, Hayes suggests, are combining to create a liquidity-rich environment \u2014 the perfect condition for Bitcoin\u2019s continued rise.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"2107\" data-end=\"2155\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Really_Drives_Bitcoins_Market_Cycles\"><\/span>What Really Drives Bitcoin\u2019s Market Cycles<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"2157\" data-end=\"2256\">Hayes connects Bitcoin\u2019s historical bull markets to three distinct periods of monetary expansion:<\/p>\n<ol data-start=\"2258\" data-end=\"2769\">\n<li data-start=\"2258\" data-end=\"2421\">\n<p data-start=\"2261\" data-end=\"2421\">The first bull run (2013): Fueled by Federal Reserve quantitative easing and China\u2019s credit boom, it ended when both economies began tightening liquidity.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2422\" data-end=\"2593\">\n<p data-start=\"2425\" data-end=\"2593\">The \u201cICO cycle\u201d (2017): Driven by yuan devaluation and massive Chinese credit expansion, it collapsed once China slowed credit growth and the dollar strengthened.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2594\" data-end=\"2769\">\n<p data-start=\"2597\" data-end=\"2769\">The \u201cCOVID cycle\u201d (2020\u20132021): Powered primarily by U.S. dollar liquidity while China remained conservative. The rally ended when the Fed turned hawkish in late 2021.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><em>Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">YouTube<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One of the most debated ideas in the crypto world \u2014 the \u201c4-year Bitcoin cycle\u201d \u2014 may no longer hold true. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin\u2019s price movements are not governed by halving events, but rather by global monetary policy and liquidity conditions. \u201cThe 4-Year Pattern Won\u2019t Work This Time\u201d In his latest<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":48905,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[2545,61,11341,2624,1730,3258,1219],"class_list":["post-53738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-cycle","tag-bitmex","tag-donald-trump","tag-halving","tag-us"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Arthur Hayes: The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Officially Dead! - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"One of the most debated ideas in the crypto world \u2014 the \u201c4-year Bitcoin cycle\u201d \u2014 may no longer hold true. 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