{"id":54522,"date":"2025-10-18T15:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-10-18T12:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=54522"},"modified":"2025-10-18T14:59:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T11:59:39","slug":"is-the-4-year-cycle-over-has-bitcoin-outgrown-its-old-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-4-year-cycle-over-has-bitcoin-outgrown-its-old-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the 4-Year Cycle Over? Has Bitcoin Outgrown Its Old Model?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"69\" data-end=\"320\">The recent downturn in the crypto market suggests that some investors are still trading according to <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/strike-ceo-bitcoin-smells-trouble-when-will-the-next-rally-begin\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0traditional four-year cycle. Experts argue that this mindset may be partly responsible for the current selling pressure across the market.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-4-year-cycle-over-has-bitcoin-outgrown-its-old-model\/#What_Is_the_Bitcoin_Four-Year_Cycle\" title=\"What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?\">What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-4-year-cycle-over-has-bitcoin-outgrown-its-old-model\/#Selling_Pressure_Builds\" title=\"Selling Pressure Builds\">Selling Pressure Builds<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/is-the-4-year-cycle-over-has-bitcoin-outgrown-its-old-model\/#Is_the_Cycle_Still_Relevant\" title=\"Is the Cycle Still Relevant?\">Is the Cycle Still Relevant?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 data-start=\"322\" data-end=\"356\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Is_the_Bitcoin_Four-Year_Cycle\"><\/span>What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"358\" data-end=\"671\">Historically, Bitcoin\u2019s price movements have followed a pattern linked to the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoins-decline-in-post-halving-years-is-not-a-new-situation\/\">halving<\/a>\u201d \u2014 a built-in event that occurs roughly every four years, reducing miner rewards by half. This mechanism has often been followed by sharp price increases and subsequent corrections, shaping how investors approach the market.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"673\" data-end=\"829\">However, analysts now believe that as the crypto industry matures, the classic four-year cycle may no longer be as relevant or influential as it once was.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"831\" data-end=\"860\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Selling_Pressure_Builds\"><\/span>Selling Pressure Builds<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"862\" data-end=\"1230\">In the past week, Bitcoin has fallen by around 9%, Ethereum by 6%, and XRP by 15%, while several altcoins have experienced even steeper declines. This pullback has been partially attributed to renewed geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump announced fresh tariffs on China, triggering a record $19 billion in liquidations across leveraged positions.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1232\" data-end=\"1569\">Messari analyst Matthew Nay said that part of the sell-off is driven by \u201ca cohort of traders still clinging to the four-year cycle.\u201d Nay explained, \u201cIf you look at the timing, it\u2019s almost exactly four years since the last market peak. Add in trade war uncertainty, and you have traders defending their positions more aggressively.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1571\" data-end=\"1772\">Stocktwits analyst Jonathan Morgan added that much of this activity reflects \u201cmechanical selling\u201d \u2014 investors who buy before the halving and sell when Bitcoin doesn\u2019t immediately surge afterward.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"1774\" data-end=\"1808\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_the_Cycle_Still_Relevant\"><\/span>Is the Cycle Still Relevant?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1810\" data-end=\"2012\">Jasper De Maere, a strategist at Wintermute, believes this strategy is outdated: \u201cThe halving doesn\u2019t move the market like it used to. Miner rewards are tiny compared to total trading volume now.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2014\" data-end=\"2239\">Similarly, Nay expects Bitcoin to return to its all-time highs before the end of the year, citing institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and deeper integration with traditional finance as factors breaking the old pattern.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2241\" data-end=\"2396\">Morgan agrees, saying, \u201cThe halving model is a relic of Bitcoin\u2019s early days. Today, ETFs, institutional flows, and derivatives have far more influence.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2398\" data-end=\"2600\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">In short, while the four-year cycle remains an iconic part of Bitcoin\u2019s history, analysts believe the crypto ecosystem has evolved \u2014 and the market may now be writing a new playbook for the digital age.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2398\" data-end=\"2600\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">You can share your opinions in the comments about the topic. Also, follow us on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Telegram<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">YouTube<\/a>\u00a0for more content like this.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent downturn in the crypto market suggests that some investors are still trading according to Bitcoin\u00a0traditional four-year cycle. Experts argue that this mindset may be partly responsible for the current selling pressure across the market. What Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle? Historically, Bitcoin\u2019s price movements have followed a pattern linked to the \u201chalving\u201d \u2014<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":38509,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,60,297,3258,22123,8132],"class_list":["post-54522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-etf","tag-halving","tag-over","tag-rate-cut"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Is the 4-Year Cycle Over? 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