{"id":54743,"date":"2025-10-21T16:00:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T13:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=54743"},"modified":"2025-10-21T14:47:04","modified_gmt":"2025-10-21T11:47:04","slug":"planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception\/","title":{"rendered":"PlanB: The 4-Year Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Is a \u201cMajor Misconception\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"72\" data-end=\"544\">The creator of the famous <em data-start=\"98\" data-end=\"113\">Stock-to-Flow<\/em> model, <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planbs-bold-move-transfers-all-bitcoin-to-etfs\/\"><strong>PlanB<\/strong><\/a>, has challenged one of the crypto market\u2019s longest-standing beliefs \u2014 the idea that <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/massive-outflow-from-crypto-etfs-bitcoin-and-ethereum-under-pressure\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a>\u2019s price movements follow a predictable four-year cycle. According to the analyst, many investors assume that a bear market will arrive in 2026, simply because past price trends have often aligned with Bitcoin\u2019s halving events. However, PlanB argues that this assumption is flawed, calling it \u201ca major misunderstanding.\u201d<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception\/#The_Halving_Cycle_May_No_Longer_Be_the_Main_Driver\" title=\"The Halving Cycle May No Longer Be the Main Driver\">The Halving Cycle May No Longer Be the Main Driver<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception\/#A_New_Phase_Yet_to_Begin\" title=\"A New Phase Yet to Begin\">A New Phase Yet to Begin<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception\/#Long-Term_Liquidity_Takes_the_Spotlight_on_Bitcoin\" title=\"Long-Term Liquidity Takes the Spotlight on Bitcoin\">Long-Term Liquidity Takes the Spotlight on Bitcoin<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception\/#Bitcoin_Price_Dips_Again\" title=\"Bitcoin Price Dips Again\">Bitcoin Price Dips Again<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"551\" data-end=\"609\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Halving_Cycle_May_No_Longer_Be_the_Main_Driver\"><\/span>The Halving Cycle May No Longer Be the Main Driver<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"610\" data-end=\"982\">PlanB noted that Bitcoin\u2019s history has largely been analyzed through the lens of four-year cycles tied to halving events, but he believes this framework is statistically weak. \u201cThree cycles are not enough to build a reliable pattern,\u201d he stated, emphasizing that there\u2019s \u201cabsolutely no guarantee\u201d the next market peak will arrive 18 months after the most recent halving.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"984\" data-end=\"1185\">Instead, PlanB suggested that Bitcoin\u2019s next major top could occur in 2026, 2027, or even 2028, stressing that the average price levels over time matter more than short-term peaks or corrections.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1192\" data-end=\"1224\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_New_Phase_Yet_to_Begin\"><\/span>A New Phase Yet to Begin<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1225\" data-end=\"1610\">According to PlanB, the current market has not yet undergone a significant \u201cphase transition.\u201d He believes either a major upward move is still on the horizon, or Bitcoin has entered a more stable regime dominated by institutional investors, fund mandates, and portfolio rebalancing. In either case, PlanB considers the long-term outlook for Bitcoin to remain highly positive.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1617\" data-end=\"1664\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Long-Term_Liquidity_Takes_the_Spotlight_on_Bitcoin\"><\/span>Long-Term Liquidity Takes the Spotlight on Bitcoin<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1665\" data-end=\"1971\">Echoing this sentiment, on-chain analyst Willy Woo pointed out that the current market cycle differs from the previous one. During the last bull run, liquidity primarily came from short-term derivatives markets, whereas this cycle appears to be supported by stronger long-term spot liquidity.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1973\" data-end=\"2238\">Meanwhile, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin\u2019s recent dip below $104,000 caused panic among investors who feared the start of a new bear market. Yet, the subsequent rebound helped ease some of those concerns \u2014 though sentiment remains fragile.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2245\" data-end=\"2277\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_Price_Dips_Again\"><\/span>Bitcoin Price Dips Again<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2278\" data-end=\"2450\">In early Tuesday trading hours in Asia, Bitcoin\u2019s price fell more than 3%, dropping to around $107,700 before stabilizing near the key $108,000 support level.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2452\" data-end=\"2669\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Overall, the crypto market remains highly volatile and cautious. Analysts agree that to sustain a new upward trend, Bitcoin will need strong fundamental drivers and renewed investor confidence in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2452\" data-end=\"2669\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The creator of the famous Stock-to-Flow model, PlanB, has challenged one of the crypto market\u2019s longest-standing beliefs \u2014 the idea that Bitcoin\u2019s price movements follow a predictable four-year cycle. According to the analyst, many investors assume that a bear market will arrive in 2026, simply because past price trends have often aligned with Bitcoin\u2019s halving<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":37365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,477,89,60,5831],"class_list":["post-54743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-bitcoin-halving","tag-btc","tag-willy-woo"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>PlanB: The 4-Year Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Is a \u201cMajor Misconception\u201d - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PlanB, challenged crypto market\u2019s longest-standing beliefs the idea that Bitcoin price movements follow a predictable four-year cycle.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/planb-the-4-year-bitcoin-btc-cycle-is-a-major-misconception\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PlanB: The 4-Year Bitcoin (BTC) Cycle Is a \u201cMajor Misconception\u201d - 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