{"id":56402,"date":"2025-11-08T13:00:42","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T10:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=56402"},"modified":"2025-11-08T12:03:21","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T09:03:21","slug":"did-bitcoin-pass-its-crash-test-what-next-for-the-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/did-bitcoin-pass-its-crash-test-what-next-for-the-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Bitcoin Pass Its \u201cCrash Test\u201d? What Next for the Market?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"261\" data-end=\"683\"><a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/eric-trump-bitcoin-will-be-the-last-asset-standing\/\"><strong>Bitcoin (BTC)<\/strong><\/a>\u2019s brief slide below the $100,000 mark rattled sentiment but ultimately reinforced the level as a strong psychological and technical floor. The rapid rebound shows that the recent volatility was less about structural weakness and more about a temporary <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/ray-dalio-the-feds-liquidity-shift-could-boost-gold-so-bitcoin\/\"><strong>liquidity<\/strong> <\/a>squeeze. Many analysts argue that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has played a major role in pressuring prices, rather than signaling a cycle peak.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/did-bitcoin-pass-its-crash-test-what-next-for-the-market\/#PlanB_Mid-Cycle_Pause_Not_the_Final_Top\" title=\"PlanB: Mid-Cycle Pause, Not the Final Top\">PlanB: Mid-Cycle Pause, Not the Final Top<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/did-bitcoin-pass-its-crash-test-what-next-for-the-market\/#Arthur_Hayes_Liquidity_Tightness_Before_a_Coming_%E2%80%9CStealth_QE%E2%80%9D\" title=\"Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Tightness Before a Coming \u201cStealth QE\u201d\">Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Tightness Before a Coming \u201cStealth QE\u201d<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/did-bitcoin-pass-its-crash-test-what-next-for-the-market\/#Raoul_Pal_A_Major_Upswing_in_Global_Liquidity_Is_Near\" title=\"Raoul Pal: A Major Upswing in Global Liquidity Is Near\">Raoul Pal: A Major Upswing in Global Liquidity Is Near<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/did-bitcoin-pass-its-crash-test-what-next-for-the-market\/#Large_Holders_Accumulate_as_Retail_Sentiment_Weakens\" title=\"Large Holders Accumulate as Retail Sentiment Weakens\">Large Holders Accumulate as Retail Sentiment Weakens<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"685\" data-end=\"733\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"PlanB_Mid-Cycle_Pause_Not_the_Final_Top\"><\/span>PlanB: Mid-Cycle Pause, Not the Final Top<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"735\" data-end=\"1075\">PlanB, the analyst known for the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, views the recent correction as a natural breather within a larger bull cycle. He highlights that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for six consecutive months \u2014 a sign that the market has transitioned from treating this level as resistance to regarding it as a firm support zone.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1077\" data-end=\"1466\">Momentum indicators support this idea. With the RSI hovering near 66, Bitcoin is far from the euphoric 80+ readings typically seen at major market tops. Based on his model projections, PlanB suggests that the next major upward phase could lift prices into the $250,000\u2013$500,000 range, assuming Bitcoin continues to diverge from its realized price \u2014 a common feature of strong bull markets.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1468\" data-end=\"1537\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Arthur_Hayes_Liquidity_Tightness_Before_a_Coming_%E2%80%9CStealth_QE%E2%80%9D\"><\/span>Arthur Hayes: Liquidity Tightness Before a Coming \u201cStealth QE\u201d<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1539\" data-end=\"1780\">Arthur Hayes attributes Bitcoin\u2019s short-term weakness to contracting U.S. dollar liquidity. Since the summer\u2019s debt ceiling resolution, the Treasury General Account (TGA) has expanded, pulling significant liquidity out of financial markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1782\" data-end=\"2259\">However, Hayes expects this trend to reverse once the government reopens and begins deploying funds more aggressively. This would reduce the TGA balance and inject liquidity back into the system. He argues that the Federal Reserve\u2019s involvement \u2014 particularly through the Standing Repo Facility \u2014 will amount to balance-sheet expansion without being formally labeled quantitative easing. According to Hayes, this discreet liquidity boost could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2261\" data-end=\"2322\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Raoul_Pal_A_Major_Upswing_in_Global_Liquidity_Is_Near\"><\/span>Raoul Pal: A Major Upswing in Global Liquidity Is Near<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2324\" data-end=\"2615\">Macro strategist Raoul Pal points to the long-term uptrend in his Global Macro Investor (GMI) Liquidity Index as evidence that the broader liquidity cycle remains intact. In his view, markets are currently in a \u201cWindow of Pain,\u201d marked by tight conditions that challenge investor conviction.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2617\" data-end=\"2928\">Pal expects a decisive turnaround as U.S. Treasury spending injects an estimated $250\u2013350 billion into markets, quantitative tightening winds down, and interest rate cuts begin. He notes that when global liquidity rises \u2014 across the U.S., China, Japan, and elsewhere \u2014 risk assets tend to move higher in unison.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2930\" data-end=\"2989\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Large_Holders_Accumulate_as_Retail_Sentiment_Weakens\"><\/span>Large Holders Accumulate as Retail Sentiment Weakens<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2991\" data-end=\"3313\">On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that major Bitcoin holders \u2014 addresses with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC \u2014 accumulated roughly 29,600 BTC in the past week, an amount valued at about $3 billion. Their combined holdings have climbed to 3.504 million BTC, marking the first significant accumulation wave since September.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3315\" data-end=\"3648\">What makes this trend more notable is that it occurred during a period of sharp sentiment deterioration among retail investors and $2 billion in ETF outflows. Analysts interpret this divergence as evidence that institutional players are strengthening the support zone around $100,000, positioning for the next macro-driven expansion.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3315\" data-end=\"3648\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-181355 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/bitcoin-balance.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3315\" data-end=\"3648\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\">Telegram<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin (BTC)\u2019s brief slide below the $100,000 mark rattled sentiment but ultimately reinforced the level as a strong psychological and technical floor. The rapid rebound shows that the recent volatility was less about structural weakness and more about a temporary liquidity squeeze. Many analysts argue that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has played a major<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":56133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[15232,1766,25423,1589,75,23432,24791,2567],"class_list":["post-56402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bear","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-bottom","tag-bull","tag-liquidity","tag-peak","tag-qe","tag-qt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Did Bitcoin Pass Its \u201cCrash Test\u201d? 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