{"id":56954,"date":"2025-11-14T12:30:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T09:30:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=56954"},"modified":"2025-11-14T10:25:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T07:25:11","slug":"fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Rate Cut Expectations for December Slump: Latest Market Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"73\" data-end=\"514\">As December approaches, market attention is firmly centered on whether the <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-stablecoin-demand-lower-rates\/\"><strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong><\/a> will deliver a<a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-fed-rate-cut-odds-112k\/\"><strong> rate cut<\/strong><\/a> at its final meeting of the year. According to the latest readings from the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool, expectations remain volatile but are currently pointing to a renewed \u2014 though fragile \u2014 probability of a rate reduction. After falling below the 50% threshold yesterday, rate-cut odds have once again risen above that level.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals\/#CME_Data_Where_Do_Rate_Expectations_Stand\" title=\"CME Data: Where Do Rate Expectations Stand?\">CME Data: Where Do Rate Expectations Stand?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals\/#Mixed_Signals_From_Federal_Reserve_Officials\" title=\"Mixed Signals From Federal Reserve Officials\">Mixed Signals From Federal Reserve Officials<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals\/#Data_Gaps_Add_to_Market_Uncertainty\" title=\"Data Gaps Add to Market Uncertainty\">Data Gaps Add to Market Uncertainty<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals\/#A_Fragile_Outlook_Ahead_of_the_December_Meeting\" title=\"A Fragile Outlook Ahead of the December Meeting\">A Fragile Outlook Ahead of the December Meeting<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"521\" data-end=\"572\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"CME_Data_Where_Do_Rate_Expectations_Stand\"><\/span>CME Data: Where Do Rate Expectations Stand?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"574\" data-end=\"661\">The FedWatch Tool shows a divided market outlook ahead of the December 10 FOMC meeting:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"663\" data-end=\"732\">\n<li data-start=\"663\" data-end=\"689\">\n<p data-start=\"665\" data-end=\"689\">350\u2013375 bps: 52.1%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"690\" data-end=\"732\">\n<p data-start=\"692\" data-end=\"732\">375\u2013400 bps (current level): 47.9%<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-182358 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/fed-faiz.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"954\" height=\"444\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"734\" data-end=\"927\">The narrow gap between the two outcomes highlights persistent uncertainty. While the market is leaning slightly toward a rate cut, confidence remains weak and highly sensitive to incoming data.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"934\" data-end=\"986\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mixed_Signals_From_Federal_Reserve_Officials\"><\/span>Mixed Signals From Federal Reserve Officials<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"988\" data-end=\"1189\">Comments from Fed policymakers offer little clarity regarding the December decision. Their statements reflect both caution and concern, making it difficult for markets to form a definitive expectation.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1191\" data-end=\"1273\">Fed official Hammack outlined several risks and pressures shaping the outlook:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1275\" data-end=\"1603\">\n<li data-start=\"1275\" data-end=\"1339\">\n<p data-start=\"1277\" data-end=\"1339\">The unemployment rate is near its maximum sustainable level.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1340\" data-end=\"1383\">\n<p data-start=\"1342\" data-end=\"1383\">Inflationary pressures remain elevated.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1384\" data-end=\"1446\">\n<p data-start=\"1386\" data-end=\"1446\">Monetary policy may need to stay \u201crestrictive\u201d for longer.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1447\" data-end=\"1520\">\n<p data-start=\"1449\" data-end=\"1520\">Inflation is still high and appears to be firming rather than easing.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1521\" data-end=\"1603\">\n<p data-start=\"1523\" data-end=\"1603\">Softening labor market conditions are complicating the Fed\u2019s employment mandate.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1605\" data-end=\"1682\">These remarks imply that the Fed may not be in a rush to pivot toward easing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1684\" data-end=\"1874\">Similarly, Neel Kashkari maintains a cautious stance, emphasizing that inflation remains around 3%. He noted that he has \u201cno strong inclination\u201d toward a December rate cut at this stage.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Data_Gaps_Add_to_Market_Uncertainty\"><\/span>Data Gaps Add to Market Uncertainty<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1926\" data-end=\"2206\">The 43-day U.S. government shutdown created additional complications for economic forecasting. The disruption prevented the release of complete labor-market data for October.<br data-start=\"2100\" data-end=\"2103\" \/>White House officials acknowledged that the true unemployment rate for the month may remain unknowable.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1926\" data-end=\"2206\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-56960 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/beyaz-saray.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"475\" height=\"128\" srcset=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/beyaz-saray.jpg 898w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/beyaz-saray-300x81.jpg 300w, https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/beyaz-saray-768x207.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 475px) 100vw, 475px\" \/><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2208\" data-end=\"2496\">Senior Adviser Hassett explained that only part of the employment report could be produced, meaning the unemployment component would not be fully captured. Although the government reopened on October 13, the missing dataset adds another layer of ambiguity to the Fed\u2019s assessment process.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2503\" data-end=\"2558\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"A_Fragile_Outlook_Ahead_of_the_December_Meeting\"><\/span>A Fragile Outlook Ahead of the December Meeting<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2560\" data-end=\"2821\">While market pricing has shifted back toward favoring a December rate cut, the direction remains far from certain. High inflation, uneven labor-market indicators and cautious commentary from Fed officials all challenge the likelihood of a decisive policy shift.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2823\" data-end=\"3055\">As a result, the December meeting is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal of the year \u2014 a moment when clearer data and a more unified stance from policymakers will be essential for establishing the next phase of monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2823\" data-end=\"3055\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As December approaches, market attention is firmly centered on whether the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut at its final meeting of the year. According to the latest readings from the CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool, expectations remain volatile but are currently pointing to a renewed \u2014 though fragile \u2014 probability of a rate reduction.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":47367,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[25612,3752,22601,25613,16772,5318,2297,8132,3310],"class_list":["post-56954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-cme-groups","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fedwatch-tool","tag-hammack","tag-hassett","tag-kashkari","tag-powell","tag-rate-cut","tag-trump"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Fed Rate Cut Expectations for December Slump: Latest Market Signals - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As December approaches, market attention is firmly centered on whether the Fed will deliver a rate cut at its final meeting of the year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/fed-rate-cut-expectations-for-december-slump-latest-market-signals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed Rate Cut Expectations for December Slump: Latest Market Signals - 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