{"id":57114,"date":"2025-11-16T11:00:47","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T08:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=57114"},"modified":"2025-11-16T10:44:20","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T07:44:20","slug":"bitcoin-options-downside-risk-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-options-downside-risk-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode: Bitcoin Options Signal Rising Downside Risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"82\" data-end=\"596\">According to Glassnode data, activity in the <strong>Bitcoin options<\/strong> market accelerated after Bitcoin broke above the $100,000 level. Investors are protecting their positions with put purchases, which serve as downside-protection options. Short-term uncertainty has increased; the 1-week implied volatility (IV) has risen to 51 percent, while the 6-month IV reached 48 percent, gaining 3 points over the past two weeks.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-options-downside-risk-signal\/#Short-Term_Volatility_and_Skew_Analysis\" title=\"Short-Term Volatility and Skew Analysis\">Short-Term Volatility and Skew Analysis<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-options-downside-risk-signal\/#Put_Demand_and_Dealer_Hedging_Behavior\" title=\"Put Demand and Dealer Hedging Behavior\">Put Demand and Dealer Hedging Behavior<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-options-downside-risk-signal\/#Market_Trends_and_Strategy_Insights\" title=\"Market Trends and Strategy Insights\">Market Trends and Strategy Insights<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"598\" data-end=\"899\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Short-Term_Volatility_and_Skew_Analysis\"><\/span>Short-Term Volatility and Skew Analysis<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"598\" data-end=\"899\">The 25-delta skew in the options market, which reflects the gap between downside protection demand and upside expectations, remains negative and continues to rise. Short-term skew in 1-week and 1-month maturities stands at roughly 12.5 percent and 10 percent.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"901\" data-end=\"1202\">These figures show that investors are prioritizing downside protection rather than betting on upward moves. <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/kiyosaki-a-cash-crunch-and-crash-what-he-says-about-bitcoin\/\">BTC<\/a> options also appear fairly priced, meaning implied and realized volatility remain close. This environment offers opportunities for investors holding options to profit from price swings.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1204\" data-end=\"1526\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Put_Demand_and_Dealer_Hedging_Behavior\"><\/span>Put Demand and Dealer Hedging Behavior<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1204\" data-end=\"1526\">Recent flows show strong dominance from put buyers seeking downside protection. Dealers hedge the risk of selling put options by shorting Bitcoin futures to offset potential losses. If the spot price continues falling, hedging activity will intensify and amplify market volatility.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1528\" data-end=\"1726\">Investors are particularly targeting 95,000-dollar put options, whose premiums are climbing rapidly, signaling a cautious market tone. Glassnode data confirms the sustained demand around this level.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1728\" data-end=\"2124\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Market_Trends_and_Strategy_Insights\"><\/span>Market Trends and Strategy Insights<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1728\" data-end=\"2124\">Short-term volatility is rising. Put demand is dominant, and dealer hedging behavior reinforces market turbulence. The options market appears to be preparing for near-term turbulence. Investors can use these dynamics to protect portfolios and capture short-term opportunities. Securing protection against sharp price swings has become increasingly important.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1728\" data-end=\"2124\">You can freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Telegram,<\/a><a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_style_link darkmysite_processed\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0<em class=\"darkmysite_style_txt_border darkmysite_processed\" data-darkmysite_alpha_bg=\"rgba(0, 0, 0, 0)\">channels for the latest news and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to Glassnode data, activity in the Bitcoin options market accelerated after Bitcoin broke above the $100,000 level. Investors are protecting their positions with put purchases, which serve as downside-protection options. Short-term uncertainty has increased; the 1-week implied volatility (IV) has risen to 51 percent, while the 6-month IV reached 48 percent, gaining 3 points<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":53849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[6671,1418,25655,25653,11316,16297,25654,25656],"class_list":["post-57114","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-bitcoin-volatility","tag-btc-iv","tag-btc-market-analysis","tag-crypto-derivatives","tag-glassnode-data","tag-options-skew","tag-put-demand"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Glassnode: Bitcoin Options Signal Rising Downside Risk - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin options show rising put demand and volatility. 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