{"id":57959,"date":"2025-11-26T15:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T12:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=57959"},"modified":"2025-11-26T14:52:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T11:52:13","slug":"bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise Analyst Warns: \u201cBitcoin Cycles Have Shifted to Two Years\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"313\" data-end=\"753\">For more than a decade, <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-options-expiry-bitcoin-88k\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a>\u2019s price movements were commonly interpreted through the lens of its four-year <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoins-decline-in-post-halving-years-is-not-a-new-situation\/\"><strong>halving<\/strong> <\/a>cycle. However, in the era of growing institutional participation, this long-standing framework may no longer be sufficient. According to Bitwise analyst Jeff Park, Bitcoin has entered a new phase driven by structural market factors, and the dominant rhythm of the market is transitioning toward two-year price cycles.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"755\" data-end=\"1110\">Park argues that this shift stems from the decreasing influence of supply-driven shocks. While miner economics and halving events once played a major role in shaping medium-term market behavior, those variables have lost their power. Instead, Bitcoin\u2019s trajectory today is increasingly dictated by ETF flows and institutional decision-making patterns.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years\/#The_End_of_the_Old_Bitcoin_Cycle_Supply_Impact_Diminishes\" title=\"The End of the Old Bitcoin Cycle: Supply Impact Diminishes\">The End of the Old Bitcoin Cycle: Supply Impact Diminishes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years\/#Inside_the_ETF_Era_A_New_Two-Year_Decision_Cycle\" title=\"Inside the ETF Era: A New Two-Year Decision Cycle\">Inside the ETF Era: A New Two-Year Decision Cycle<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years\/#The_Significance_of_the_84000_Dollar_Region\" title=\"The Significance of the 84,000 Dollar Region\">The Significance of the 84,000 Dollar Region<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years\/#Time_as_a_Pressure_Mechanism\" title=\"Time as a Pressure Mechanism\">Time as a Pressure Mechanism<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"1112\" data-end=\"1165\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_End_of_the_Old_Bitcoin_Cycle_Supply_Impact_Diminishes\"><\/span>The End of the Old Bitcoin Cycle: Supply Impact Diminishes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1167\" data-end=\"1584\">Historically, Bitcoin major bull runs were reinforced by a combination of reduced supply, rising media attention, and aggressive retail participation. These elements created a self-reinforcing cycle that repeatedly aligned with the halving timeline. Park asserts that this model no longer defines the market, noting that supply constraints have limited influence in an environment dominated by large asset managers.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1586\" data-end=\"1733\">In the institutional era, fund managers\u2019 year-end performance targets and liquidity considerations have become central to Bitcoin\u2019s price behavior.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1586\" data-end=\"1733\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-118542 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/coinmuhendisi.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Bitcoin-Halving-.webp\" alt=\"Bitcoin Halving\" width=\"695\" height=\"364\" \/><\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1735\" data-end=\"1787\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Inside_the_ETF_Era_A_New_Two-Year_Decision_Cycle\"><\/span>Inside the ETF Era: A New Two-Year Decision Cycle<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1789\" data-end=\"2049\">Park highlights that professional investors tend to reassess their risk exposure around annual P&amp;L periods, making them more likely to exit volatile assets during periods of uncertainty. Even prolonged sideways movement, he notes, can trigger selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2051\" data-end=\"2292\">Another structural factor is the divide between ETF inflows. While most capital that entered during 2024 remains in profit, a significant portion of 2025 entrants is underwater. This creates a decision crossroads for institutional players:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2293\" data-end=\"2368\">\n<li data-start=\"2293\" data-end=\"2326\">\n<p data-start=\"2295\" data-end=\"2326\">wait for a stronger rally, or<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2327\" data-end=\"2368\">\n<p data-start=\"2329\" data-end=\"2368\">consider exiting positions at a loss.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2370\" data-end=\"2458\">This dynamic could form a pivotal stress point within Bitcoin\u2019s emerging two-year cycle.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2460\" data-end=\"2507\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Significance_of_the_84000_Dollar_Region\"><\/span>The Significance of the 84,000 Dollar Region<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2509\" data-end=\"2972\">Park emphasizes that the current price area around 84,000 dollars is a key threshold for ETF investors, serving as a rough average cost basis for many institutions. Large inflows recorded between October and November 2024 mean these investors require substantial performance through 2026 to meet their compounded return expectations. Failure to achieve this may activate the two-year evaluation window and potentially introduce new waves of institutional selling.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2974\" data-end=\"3005\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Time_as_a_Pressure_Mechanism\"><\/span>Time as a Pressure Mechanism<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3007\" data-end=\"3441\">One of Park\u2019s most notable claims is that time itself has become a headwind. Bitcoin is often presented to investment committees as an asset capable of generating annualized returns of 25\u201330 percent. When price growth stalls, the expected return profile declines even without a drop in price, weakening Bitcoin appeal relative to its risk. In the institutional environment, this could trigger a new form of structural sell pressure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3007\" data-end=\"3441\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For more than a decade, Bitcoin\u2019s price movements were commonly interpreted through the lens of its four-year halving cycle. However, in the era of growing institutional participation, this long-standing framework may no longer be sufficient. According to Bitwise analyst Jeff Park, Bitcoin has entered a new phase driven by structural market factors, and the dominant<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":54050,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,1149,60,1589,2701,20990,3258],"class_list":["post-57959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitwise","tag-btc","tag-bull","tag-bull-run","tag-cycle","tag-halving"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitwise Analyst Warns: \u201cBitcoin Cycles Have Shifted to Two Years\u201d - Coin Engineer<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For more than a decade, Bitcoin price movements were commonly interpreted through the lens of its four-year halving cycle.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitwise-analyst-warns-bitcoin-cycles-have-shifted-to-two-years\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitwise Analyst Warns: \u201cBitcoin Cycles Have Shifted to Two Years\u201d - 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