{"id":58103,"date":"2025-11-28T13:00:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T10:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/?p=58103"},"modified":"2025-11-28T11:47:39","modified_gmt":"2025-11-28T08:47:39","slug":"bitcoin-and-sp-500-year-end-rally-indicators-are-bullish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-and-sp-500-year-end-rally-indicators-are-bullish\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin and S&#038;P 500 Year-End Rally? Indicators Are Bullish!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"252\" data-end=\"617\">Market <strong>volatility<\/strong> indicators have begun to stabilize after a turbulent period, strengthening expectations for a potential year-end rally in both <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-faces-its-worst-november-in-seven-years-what-could-2026-bring\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/binance-wallet-introduces-on-chain-stock-trading\/\"><strong>U.S. stocks<\/strong><\/a>. With the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December rising once again, risk appetite is recovering, and options-based volatility indices are echoing this shift with renewed optimism.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_71 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-and-sp-500-year-end-rally-indicators-are-bullish\/#Volatility_Retreats_Strengthening_Bullish_Sentiment\" title=\"Volatility Retreats, Strengthening Bullish Sentiment\">Volatility Retreats, Strengthening Bullish Sentiment<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-and-sp-500-year-end-rally-indicators-are-bullish\/#Bitcoin_Rebounds_as_Its_Inverse_Volatility_Correlation_Holds\" title=\"Bitcoin Rebounds as Its Inverse Volatility Correlation Holds\">Bitcoin Rebounds as Its Inverse Volatility Correlation Holds<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/bitcoin-and-sp-500-year-end-rally-indicators-are-bullish\/#Fed_Expectations_Revive_Market_Confidence\" title=\"Fed Expectations Revive Market Confidence\">Fed Expectations Revive Market Confidence<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 data-start=\"619\" data-end=\"674\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Volatility_Retreats_Strengthening_Bullish_Sentiment\"><\/span>Volatility Retreats, Strengthening Bullish Sentiment<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"676\" data-end=\"1148\">Implied volatility measures tied to Bitcoin and the S&amp;P 500 have erased nearly all of their recent spikes. Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day BVIV index, calculated by Volmex, surged to nearly 65% in the days leading up to Nov. 21 but has since dropped back to an annualized 51%. This reversal came as Bitcoin\u2019s price plunged from around $96,000 to below $80,000\u2014a move that briefly ignited panic across the market. The quick decline in volatility suggests that fear has largely dissipated.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1150\" data-end=\"1521\">Deribit\u2019s DVOL index reflects a similar pattern, mirroring the volatility swings seen across Wall Street. Meanwhile, the VIX\u2014often referred to as the stock market\u2019s \u201cfear gauge\u201d\u2014jumped to 28% during the same period before falling back to 17%. Collectively, these signals indicate that risk-on sentiment is resurfacing as the market approaches the final month of the year.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1523\" data-end=\"1586\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_Rebounds_as_Its_Inverse_Volatility_Correlation_Holds\"><\/span>Bitcoin Rebounds as Its Inverse Volatility Correlation Holds<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1588\" data-end=\"1899\">Since last Friday, Bitcoin has climbed back above the $91,000 level, continuing to move inversely to its volatility index. This persistent negative correlation, which has become more pronounced since late last year, aligns with the narrative that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a more mature asset class.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1901\" data-end=\"1945\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Fed_Expectations_Revive_Market_Confidence\"><\/span>Fed Expectations Revive Market Confidence<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1947\" data-end=\"2304\">The sharp cooling in volatility is closely linked to shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve\u2019s December meeting. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut dropped to 39% just a week ago but has since surged to nearly 87%. This renewed dovish pricing has reduced demand for Bitcoin put options, signaling waning concerns about near-term downside risk.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2306\" data-end=\"2603\">On options platforms such as Deribit and Derive, short-term call-put skews have improved from the -7% to -10% range observed last week to around -5% today. While traders are still paying a premium for downside protection, the reduced skew highlights a significant decline in defensive positioning.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2306\" data-end=\"2603\"><em>You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don\u2019t forget to follow us on our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/coinengineernews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Telegram,\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@CoinEngineer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">YouTube<\/a>,\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/coinengineers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>\u00a0channels for the latest\u00a0<a title=\"News\" href=\"https:\/\/coinengineer.net\/blog\/news\/\" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c=\"7\">news<\/a>\u00a0and updates.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market volatility indicators have begun to stabilize after a turbulent period, strengthening expectations for a potential year-end rally in both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. With the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December rising once again, risk appetite is recovering, and options-based volatility indices are echoing this shift with renewed optimism. Volatility Retreats,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":29,"featured_media":40648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,2],"tags":[61,60,1589,640,8132,5863,2487,7320],"class_list":["post-58103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-crypto-news","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-bull","tag-fed","tag-rate-cut","tag-rise","tag-sp-500","tag-stocks"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin and S&amp;P 500 Year-End Rally? 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